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70-74 Female AG

24.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 34/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 28.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 14.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.4
Mean swim error144.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.87 km/h
Correct bike groups0/10
No history4
Within the 80% range35.7 %
Details
1 / 1 Janet MacKay Thompson
CAN
+203 s
+281 s
G1 / G4
 54:27
54:19
 2:20:24
Show details
Prediction details: Janet MacKay Thompson

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +203 s
Time: 34:37
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +281 s
Fehler: -77.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.45 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 91.2 s
Gap behind: 67.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:27 (5:27 / km)
Historical basis: 5:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:19 (5:26 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 2:20:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:37 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:27 (28.8 km/h)
Run: 54:27 (5:27 / km)
Total: 2:20:24
2 / 7 Patti Peterson
USA
+112 s
+319 s
G2 / G4
 1:00:00
1:18:08
 2:26:15
Show details
Prediction details: Patti Peterson

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +112 s
Time: 33:06
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +319 s
Fehler: -207.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 111.9 s
Gap behind: 91.2 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 26.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:00:00 (6:00 / km)
Historical basis: 6:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:18:08 (7:49 / km)
Error: −18:08 / −1:49 / km
Overall prediction: 2:26:15
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 33:06 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:23 (28.2 km/h)
Run: 1:00:00 (6:00 / km)
Total: 2:26:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 32:51
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 8 Cande Olsen
USA
+271 s
+296 s
G1 / G8
 1:00:19
1:03:59
 2:26:16
Show details
Prediction details: Cande Olsen

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +271 s
Time: 35:45
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +296 s
Fehler: -25.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.40 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 67.7 s
Gap behind: 138.2 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 22.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:00:19 (6:02 / km)
Historical basis: 6:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.76 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:03:59 (6:24 / km)
Error: −3:40 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 2:26:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 35:45 (2:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:27 (28.8 km/h)
Run: 1:00:19 (6:02 / km)
Total: 2:26:16
4 / 6 Sue Reynolds
USA
+0 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 1:13:01
1:20:14
 2:39:16
Show details
Prediction details: Sue Reynolds

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 111.9 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 25.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:13:01 (7:18 / km)
Historical basis: 7:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:20:14 (8:01 / km)
Error: −7:13 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 2:39:16
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:23 (28.2 km/h)
Run: 1:13:01 (7:18 / km)
Total: 2:39:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
5 / 9 Suzanne Mink
USA
+409 s
+284 s
G3 / G7
 1:25:35
1:13:04
 2:59:43
Show details
Prediction details: Suzanne Mink

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +409 s
Time: 38:03
Pace: 2:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +284 s
Fehler: 125.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 138.2 s
Gap behind: 111.8 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 22.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:25:35 (8:34 / km)
Historical basis: 8:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:13:04 (7:18 / km)
Error: +12:31 / +1:15 / km
Overall prediction: 2:59:43
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 38:03 (2:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:51 (28.0 km/h)
Run: 1:25:35 (8:34 / km)
Total: 2:59:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 34:41
Pace: 2:19 / 100 m
About 202 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +207 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Marj Carpenter
USA
+521 s
+696 s
G3 / G10
 1:38:48
1:21:43
 3:12:56
Show details
Prediction details: Marj Carpenter

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +521 s
Time: 39:55
Pace: 2:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +696 s
Fehler: -175.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 111.8 s
Gap behind: 15.2 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 22.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:38:48 (9:53 / km)
Historical basis: 9:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:21:43 (8:10 / km)
Error: +17:05 / +1:43 / km
Overall prediction: 3:12:56
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 39:55 (2:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:51 (28.0 km/h)
Run: 1:38:48 (9:53 / km)
Total: 3:12:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 33:22
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
About 393.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +127.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10 Heather Woodruff
USA
+536 s
+374 s
G3 / G9
 1:39:55
1:21:00
 3:14:03
Show details
Prediction details: Heather Woodruff

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +536 s
Time: 40:10
Pace: 2:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +374 s
Fehler: 162.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.2 s
Gap behind: 34.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 21.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:39:55 (10:00 / km)
Historical basis: 10:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:21:00 (8:06 / km)
Error: +18:55 / +1:54 / km
Overall prediction: 3:14:03
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 40:10 (2:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:51 (28.0 km/h)
Run: 1:39:55 (10:00 / km)
Total: 3:14:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 34:41
Pace: 2:19 / 100 m
About 329 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +207 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Lesley Kernaghan
GBR
+0 s
+175 s
G2 / G3
57:40
Show details
Prediction details: Lesley Kernaghan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +175 s
Fehler: -175.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 57:40 (5:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:23 (28.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Louise Atkinson Clark
CAN
+857 s
+366 s
G3 / G2
59:09
Show details
Prediction details: Louise Atkinson Clark

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +857 s
Time: 45:31
Pace: 3:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +366 s
Fehler: 491.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 287.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 59:09 (5:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 45:31 (3:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:51 (28.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 35:55
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
About 575.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +281.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Ann Burton
USA
+0 s
+297 s
G0 / G5
1:07:54
Show details
Prediction details: Ann Burton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +297 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 26.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:07:54 (6:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Denise Cooksey
USA
+570 s
+579 s
G3 / G6
1:05:55
Show details
Prediction details: Denise Cooksey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +570 s
Time: 40:44
Pace: 2:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +579 s
Fehler: -9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.0 s
Gap behind: 287.0 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 24.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:05:55 (6:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 40:44 (2:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:51 (28.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 35:55
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
About 288.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +281.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Helen Kaiser
USA
+0 s
+316 s
G0 / G6
1:34:59
Show details
Prediction details: Helen Kaiser

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +316 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 24.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:34:59 (9:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Penny Popp
USA
+0 s
+1037 s
G0 / G11
1:22:10
Show details
Prediction details: Penny Popp

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1037 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 21.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:22:10 (8:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Sharon Purdy
CAN
+0 s
+558 s
G0 / G12
1:27:55
Show details
Prediction details: Sharon Purdy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 31:14
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +558 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 19.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:27:55 (8:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 31:14 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.