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80-84 Male AG Super Sprint

22.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 14.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.7
Mean swim error469.2 s
Mean bike-speed error4.61 km/h
Correct bike groups2/7
No history0
Within the 80% range14.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 George Eymer
USA
+40 s
+256 s
G1 / G6
 11:55
13:16
 27:57
Show details
Prediction details: George Eymer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 3:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +256 s
Fehler: -216.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 34.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 21.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:55 (7:27 / km)
Historical basis: 7:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:16 (8:18 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 27:57
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:28 (3:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:22 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 11:55 (7:27 / km)
Total: 27:57
2 / 7 Robert Levy
USA
+74 s
+233 s
G2 / G7
 11:51
12:26
 28:27
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Levy

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 3:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +233 s
Fehler: -159.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.0 s
Gap behind: 166.1 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 17.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:51 (7:24 / km)
Historical basis: 7:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:26 (7:46 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 28:27
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:02 (3:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:36 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 11:51 (7:24 / km)
Total: 28:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 3:11 / 100 m
About 30.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Gherardo Mercati
ITA
+259 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 11:05
9:32
 35:30
Show details
Prediction details: Gherardo Mercati

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +259 s
Time: 13:07
Pace: 4:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 231.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.0 s
Gap behind: 284.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:05 (6:56 / km)
Historical basis: 6:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (5:58 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 35:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:07 (4:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:13 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 11:05 (6:56 / km)
Total: 35:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 3:11 / 100 m
About 215.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Ralph Ward
USA
+240 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
11:36
Show details
Prediction details: Ralph Ward

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +240 s
Time: 12:48
Pace: 4:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 240.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 166.1 s
Gap behind: 19.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:36 (7:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:48 (4:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:36 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 3:19 / 100 m
About 170.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Neal Genda
USA
+732 s
+27 s
G3 / G3
correct
11:55
Show details
Prediction details: Neal Genda

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +732 s
Time: 21:00
Pace: 7:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 705.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 189.0 s
Gap behind: 674.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:55 (7:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:00 (7:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:13 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 3:19 / 100 m
About 662.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Raymond Eastwood
USA
+1,406 s
+79 s
G4 / G4
correct
10:27
Show details
Prediction details: Raymond Eastwood

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,406 s
Time: 32:14
Pace: 10:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 1,327.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 674.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 25.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:27 (6:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 32:14 (10:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:30 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 3:19 / 100 m
About 1336.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 David Fraser
USA
+543 s
+137 s
G3 / G5
11:46
Show details
Prediction details: David Fraser

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +543 s
Time: 17:51
Pace: 5:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +137 s
Fehler: 406.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 284.0 s
Gap behind: 189.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 24.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:46 (7:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:51 (5:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:13 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 3:19 / 100 m
About 473.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.