Prediction comparison

Junior Women

01.05.2023 Santa Eulalia ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 9/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 18.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.4

Mean swim error16.0 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history3

					Details
0 / 1	Margareta Vrablova SVK	+7 s +4 s	Bike DNF	17:57 17:18	Show details Prediction details: Margareta Vrablova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 12:38 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:38 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Nora Romina Nádas HUN	+27 s +13 s	Bike DNF	18:06	Show details Prediction details: Nora Romina Nádas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 12:58 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 14.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:58 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Cassilda Carvalho POR	+13 s +14 s	Bike DNF	20:33 18:17	Show details Prediction details: Cassilda Carvalho Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 12:44 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -1.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km) Error: +2:16 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:44 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Ana Carballo Gómez ESP	+43 s +46 s	Bike DNF	17:48	Show details Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 13:14 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:14 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Alejandra Seguí Soria ESP	+22 s +70 s	Bike DNF	19:14 18:38	Show details Prediction details: Alejandra Seguí Soria Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 12:53 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: -47.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:53 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Desislava Lazarova BUL	+0 s +39 s	Bike DNF	19:27	Show details Prediction details: Desislava Lazarova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Emily Crookes GBR	+0 s +47 s	Bike DNF	19:30	Show details Prediction details: Emily Crookes Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Sara Navodnik SLO	+26 s +41 s	Bike DNF	21:45 19:42	Show details Prediction details: Sara Navodnik Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 12:57 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -14.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Historical basis: 4:21 / km Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:42 (3:56 / km) Error: +2:03 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:57 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Laura Angleitner SLO	+53 s +45 s	Bike DNF	33:06 20:59	Show details Prediction details: Laura Angleitner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 13:24 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 7.7 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 33:06 (6:37 / km) Historical basis: 6:37 / km Best comparable pace: 6:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Error: +12:07 / +2:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:24 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 33:06 (6:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Selena Vlahova BUL	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	21:46	Show details Prediction details: Selena Vlahova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:46 (4:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Magdalena Starcevic CRO	+33 s +69 s	Bike DNF	23:34	Show details Prediction details: Magdalena Starcevic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 13:04 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: -36.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 (4:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:04 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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