Prediction comparison

U23 Women

01.05.2023 Santa Eulalia ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 19/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 38.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 38.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.0

Mean swim error21.3 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Márta Kropkó HUN	+14 s +0 s	Bike DNF	18:52 17:45	Show details Prediction details: Márta Kropkó Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 13:04 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 14.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:04 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Giada Stegani ITA	+17 s +2 s	Bike DNF	17:50	Show details Prediction details: Giada Stegani Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 13:07 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 15.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:07 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Laura Holánszky HUN	+3 s +3 s	Bike DNF	19:04 17:52	Show details Prediction details: Laura Holánszky Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 12:53 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:53 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Asia Mercatelli ITA	+31 s +48 s	Bike DNF	18:02 17:19	Show details Prediction details: Asia Mercatelli Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 13:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -16.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Dominika Peszleg HUN	+50 s +46 s	Bike DNF	19:32 17:26	Show details Prediction details: Dominika Peszleg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 13:40 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Error: +2:06 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:40 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Lona Gandon FRA	+15 s +25 s	Bike DNF	17:47	Show details Prediction details: Lona Gandon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 13:05 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -10.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 13:05 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Silke De Wolde NED	+44 s +48 s	Bike DNF	17:49 18:25	Show details Prediction details: Silke De Wolde Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 13:34 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -4.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:34 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Himeka Sato JPN	+40 s +47 s	Bike DNF	20:14 18:44	Show details Prediction details: Himeka Sato Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 13:30 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -7.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:45 / km) Error: +1:30 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:30 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Alexa Magallon SUI	+39 s +59 s	Bike DNF	18:46	Show details Prediction details: Alexa Magallon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 13:29 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: -20.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:29 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Pauline Feußner GER	+47 s +12 s	Bike DNF	20:11	Show details Prediction details: Pauline Feußner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 35.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Esther Gomez Gonzalez ESP	+32 s +78 s	Bike DNF	19:31	Show details Prediction details: Esther Gomez Gonzalez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 13:22 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -46.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:22 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Andrea Morras Luna ESP	+49 s +78 s	Bike DNF	19:34	Show details Prediction details: Andrea Morras Luna Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 13:39 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -29.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:39 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Yen Ling Kathlyn Yeo SGP	+0 s +75 s	Bike DNF	20:22	Show details Prediction details: Yen Ling Kathlyn Yeo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:50 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: -75.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:50 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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