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Predicition
Prediction comparison

45-49 Female AG

03.05.2023 San Antonio ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.4
Mean bike-speed error13.52 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Details
0 / 1 Teresa Pons Munill
ESP
+64 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Teresa Pons Munill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 16.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -15.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 28:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Sandra Santanyes Murillo
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Santanyes Murillo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 15.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -15.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 30:45 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Severine Guerif
FRA
+945 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Severine Guerif

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +945 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 13.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 26:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Karen Heppenstall
GBR
+157 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Heppenstall

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +157 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 13.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 28:24 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Nicolle Weir
RSA
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolle Weir

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 32:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Erna Fontein
FRA
+113 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Erna Fontein

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +113 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 13.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 29:37 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Fátima Blázquez Lozano
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Fátima Blázquez Lozano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 12.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 33:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Laura Kline
USA
+0 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Kline

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 11.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -11.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 28:53 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Jessica Soroka
USA
+0 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 11.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -11.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 31:35 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Laura Ravelli
ITA
+571 s
G0 / G10
28:12
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Ravelli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +571 s
Time:
Pace: 2:35 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 11.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -11.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:12 (4:52 / km)
Historical basis: 4:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1

Ergebnis Lauf: 34:55 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run: 28:12 (4:52 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.