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Prediction comparison

30-34 Male AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Aquabike Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error418.3 s
Mean bike-speed error6.54 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history2
Within the 80% range40.0 %
Details
0 / 1 Fader Hidalgo
BRA
+654 s
+0 s
G3 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Fader Hidalgo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +654 s
Time: 1:16:06
Pace: 2:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 654.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 165.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:16:06 (2:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:05:16
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
About 650.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Guigou Yves-Antoine
FRA
+0 s
+226 s
G1 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Guigou Yves-Antoine

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:05:12
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +226 s
Fehler: -226.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 489.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 1:05:12 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Alex Bees
NZL
+489 s
+864 s
G2 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Bees

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +489 s
Time: 1:13:21
Pace: 2:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +864 s
Fehler: -375.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 489.0 s
Gap behind: 165.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 1:13:21 (2:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:05:16
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
About 485.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Bruno Manchini Varoli
BRA
+0 s
+479 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Manchini Varoli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:05:12
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +479 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:05:12 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Alex Vargo
USA
+0 s
+2308 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Vargo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:05:12
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2308 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 18.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:05:12 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.