Prediction comparison

50-54 Male AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Aquabike Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error15.9

Mean swim error410.8 s

Mean bike-speed error6.31 km/h

Correct bike groups1/23

No history8

Within the 80% range9.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Cesar Pereira Del Pino ESP	+109 s +0 s	G5 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Cesar Pereira Del Pino Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 45:40 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 109.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 32.0 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 45:40 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 105.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Nicolas Barthe FRA	+0 s +236 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Nicolas Barthe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +236 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Michael Crowe NZL	+180 s +256 s	G8 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Michael Crowe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +180 s Time: 46:51 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +256 s Fehler: -76.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 24.0 s Gap behind: 115.7 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.06 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 46:51 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:10 (39.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 176.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Jean Marie Le Borgne FRA	+0 s +399 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Jean Marie Le Borgne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +399 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Marcus Ornellas BRA	+0 s +247 s	G1 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Marcus Ornellas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +247 s Fehler: -247.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 13.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.36 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6	Thomas Schmittinger GER	+123 s +487 s	G6 / G6 correct	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Schmittinger Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +123 s Time: 45:54 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +487 s Fehler: -364.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 33.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.99 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 45:54 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 119.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Oliver Rau GER	+0 s +263 s	G1 / G7	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Rau Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +263 s Fehler: -263.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.99 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8	Holger Trispel GER	+394 s +636 s	G9 / G8	Show details Prediction details: Holger Trispel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +394 s Time: 50:25 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +636 s Fehler: -242.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 9 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.0 s Gap behind: 39.1 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.43 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 50:25 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:07:46 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 390.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Hugo Ecija Bernal ESP	+77 s +251 s	G4 / G9	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Ecija Bernal Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: 45:08 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +251 s Fehler: -174.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 16.0 s Gap behind: 32.0 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.16 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 45:08 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 73.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10	Marc Silberman USA	+361 s +632 s	G8 / G10	Show details Prediction details: Marc Silberman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +361 s Time: 49:52 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +632 s Fehler: -271.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.0 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.95 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 49:52 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:10 (39.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 357.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Jason Cripps GBR	+0 s +603 s	G0 / G11	Show details Prediction details: Jason Cripps Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +603 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Georg Harbauer GER	+13 s +469 s	G2 / G11	Show details Prediction details: Georg Harbauer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 44:04 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +469 s Fehler: -456.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 13.0 s Gap behind: 48.0 s Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.25 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 44:04 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13	Luke Healy AUS	+0 s +472 s	G0 / G12	Show details Prediction details: Luke Healy Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +472 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (1 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Wayne Hitchcott GBR	+364 s +780 s	G8 / G13	Show details Prediction details: Wayne Hitchcott Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–14 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +364 s Time: 49:55 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +780 s Fehler: -416.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 10.5 s Result: Group 13 (1 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.64 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 49:55 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:10 (39.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 360.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15	John Kennelly GBR	+61 s +283 s	G3 / G14	Show details Prediction details: John Kennelly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 44:52 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +283 s Fehler: -222.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 48.0 s Gap behind: 16.0 s Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.79 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 44:52 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 57.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16	António Ribeiro POR	+378 s +1088 s	G9 / G15	Show details Prediction details: António Ribeiro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 14–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +378 s Time: 50:09 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1088 s Fehler: -710.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 9 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 16.0 s Result: Group 15 (1 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.50 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 50:09 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:07:46 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 374.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17	Matthew Clarkson GBR	+338 s +719 s	G8 / G16	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Clarkson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–13 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +338 s Time: 49:29 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +719 s Fehler: -381.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 42.3 s Gap behind: 23.0 s Result: Group 16 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.59 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 49:29 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:10 (39.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 334.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18	Alastair Ness GBR	+456 s +968 s	G10 / G17	Show details Prediction details: Alastair Ness Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +456 s Time: 51:27 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +968 s Fehler: -512.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.9 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 17 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 51:27 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 452.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19	Martin Wagner USA	+457 s +845 s	G10 / G18	Show details Prediction details: Martin Wagner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 18–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +457 s Time: 51:28 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +845 s Fehler: -388.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 61.3 s Result: Group 18 (1 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.57 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 51:28 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 452.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20	Nick Esser GBR	+629 s +785 s	G10 / G19	Show details Prediction details: Nick Esser Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 19–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +629 s Time: 54:20 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +785 s Fehler: -156.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 70.0 s Gap behind: 124.0 s Result: Group 19 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 54:20 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 625.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21	Christophe Vacheresse FRA	+0 s +627 s	G0 / G20	Show details Prediction details: Christophe Vacheresse Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +627 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 20 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22	Richard Mostyn Jones GBR	+156 s +691 s	G7 / G21	Show details Prediction details: Richard Mostyn Jones Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 22 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +156 s Time: 46:27 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +691 s Fehler: -535.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 33.0 s Gap behind: 24.0 s Result: Group 21 (1 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 10.17 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 46:27 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 152.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23	Alf Rune Planting Mathisen NOR	+0 s +1065 s	G0 / G22	Show details Prediction details: Alf Rune Planting Mathisen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1065 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 22 (2 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Rob Moon GBR	+518 s +1124 s	G10 / G22	Show details Prediction details: Rob Moon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 20–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +518 s Time: 52:29 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1124 s Fehler: -606.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 61.3 s Gap behind: 41.0 s Result: Group 22 (2 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 52:29 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 514.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25	Daniel Kelly GBR	+559 s +1271 s	G10 / G23	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Kelly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +559 s Time: 53:10 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1271 s Fehler: -712.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 41.0 s Gap behind: 70.0 s Result: Group 23 (1 people) Speed: 29.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.29 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 53:10 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 555.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26	Daniel Sayer GBR	+0 s +622 s	G0 / G24	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Sayer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 30–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +622 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 24 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27	Laurent Deage FRA	+375 s +1059 s	G9 / G25	Show details Prediction details: Laurent Deage Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +375 s Time: 50:06 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1059 s Fehler: -684.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 9 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.5 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 25 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.97 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 50:06 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:07:46 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 370.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28	Carlos Andres Ramirez Duarte ESP	+433 s +1474 s	G10 / G26	Show details Prediction details: Carlos Andres Ramirez Duarte Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +433 s Time: 51:04 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1474 s Fehler: -1,040.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 39.1 s Gap behind: 22.9 s Result: Group 26 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.88 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 51:04 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 429.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29	Kristofer Milne NZL	+296 s +534 s	G8 / G27	Show details Prediction details: Kristofer Milne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–13 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 29 Deviation: -29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +296 s Time: 48:47 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +534 s Fehler: -238.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 115.7 s Gap behind: 42.3 s Result: Group 27 (1 people) Speed: 25.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 14.26 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 48:47 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:10 (39.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 291.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30	Yaniv Yarkoni USA	+0 s +1315 s	G0 / G28	Show details Prediction details: Yaniv Yarkoni Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 31–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 43:51 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1315 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 28 (1 people) Speed: 26.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 43:51 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 31	David Tabernacle AUS	+753 s +1397 s	G10 / G29	Show details Prediction details: David Tabernacle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: -31 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +753 s Time: 56:24 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1397 s Fehler: -644.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 10 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 124.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 29 (1 people) Speed: 23.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 11.65 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 56:24 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:17:37 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 43:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 749.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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