Prediction comparison

65-69 Female AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Aquabike Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.6

Mean swim error232.8 s

Mean bike-speed error14.73 km/h

Correct bike groups2/5

No history1

Within the 80% range33.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Heather Grahame USA	+0 s +119 s	G1 / G1 correct	Show details Prediction details: Heather Grahame Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 1:11:39 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: -119.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 88 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 405.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 28.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.62 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 1:11:39 (2:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 2	Theresa Frost GBR	+0 s +250 s	G1 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Theresa Frost Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 1:11:39 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +250 s Fehler: -250.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 25.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.65 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 1:11:39 (2:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Kathleen Meany USA	+0 s +958 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Kathleen Meany Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 1:11:39 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +958 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 23.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 1:11:39 (2:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Blanca Leticia Valdes Coss MEX	+718 s +0 s	G4 / G4 correct	Show details Prediction details: Blanca Leticia Valdes Coss Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +718 s Time: 1:23:37 Pace: 2:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 717.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.0 km/h Gap ahead: 262.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 22.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.02 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 1:23:37 (2:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 4:18:03 (27.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 1:11:43 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m About 713.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Marcia Postallian USA	+455 s +447 s	G3 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Marcia Postallian Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +455 s Time: 1:19:14 Pace: 2:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +447 s Fehler: 8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 50.0 s Gap behind: 262.8 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 20.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 20.25 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 1:19:14 (2:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 1:11:43 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m About 451.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Joni Briganti USA	+405 s +474 s	G2 / G6	Show details Prediction details: Joni Briganti Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +405 s Time: 1:18:24 Pace: 2:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +474 s Fehler: -69.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 405.0 s Gap behind: 50.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 20.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 20.13 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 1:18:24 (2:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 1:11:43 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m About 401.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

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Cycling

Running and total

Placement

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Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total