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20-24 Male AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.0
Mean swim error131.0 s
Mean bike-speed error5.07 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history7
Within the 80% range36.4 %
Details
1 / 2 Maciej Wisniewski
POL
+64 s
+199 s
G3 / G2
 2:14:44
2:00:33
 5:10:21
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Wisniewski

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 45:34
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +199 s
Fehler: -135.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 38.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:14:44 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:00:33 (4:01 / km)
Error: +14:11 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 5:10:21
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 45:34 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:54:33 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 2:14:44 (4:29 / km)
Total: 5:10:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 44:34
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 60 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Alexander Milne
GBR
+0 s
+1 s
G0 / G3
1:56:51
Show details
Prediction details: Alexander Milne

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:56:51 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Miguel Ledesma Blanco
ESP
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
2:06:33
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Ledesma Blanco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:06:33 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Bruno Slegers
BEL
+0 s
+92 s
G1 / G4
1:57:15
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Slegers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -92.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 26.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:57:15 (3:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:50:57 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Zachary Durham
GBR
+0 s
+331 s
G0 / G6
2:21:11
Show details
Prediction details: Zachary Durham

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +331 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:21:11 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Marcin Kompa
POL
+0 s
+343 s
G0 / G8
2:28:27
Show details
Prediction details: Marcin Kompa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +343 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:28:27 (4:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Thomas Venegas
CHI
+0 s
+457 s
G0 / G8
2:29:34
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Venegas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +457 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:29:34 (4:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Harrison Lloyd
NZL
+26 s
+323 s
G2 / G7
2:52:41
Show details
Prediction details: Harrison Lloyd

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 44:56
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +323 s
Fehler: -297.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 26.0 s
Gap behind: 38.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:52:41 (5:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 44:56 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 44:34
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Tomas Vargas Kerber
CHI
+0 s
+964 s
G0 / G9
2:53:22
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Vargas Kerber

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +964 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:53:22 (5:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Adam Eckstein
USA
+0 s
+694 s
G0 / G10
3:03:19
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Eckstein

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +694 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 26.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:03:19 (6:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Felipe Santos Rodrigues
BRA
+0 s
+2629 s
G0 / G11
3:43:35
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Santos Rodrigues

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 44:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2629 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 24.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:43:35 (7:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 44:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.