Prediction comparison

25-29 Female AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.0

Mean swim error206.1 s

Mean bike-speed error10.44 km/h

Correct bike groups0/2

No history4

Within the 80% range33.3 %

						Details
1 / 5	Hannah Smith GBR	+208 s +467 s	G2 / G7	2:10:43 2:25:42	5:06:15	Show details Prediction details: Hannah Smith Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +208 s Time: 57:46 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +467 s Fehler: -259.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 54.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 28.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.39 km/h Running and total Run: 2:10:43 (4:21 / km) Historical basis: 4:21 / km Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:25:42 (4:51 / km) Error: −14:59 / −0:30 / km Overall prediction: 5:06:15 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 57:46 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: 2:10:43 (4:21 / km) Total: 5:06:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 56:55 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m About 50.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +156.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Rebecca Swainson NZL	+153 s +0 s	G1 / G3	2:19:31 2:26:54	5:14:08	Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Swainson Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +153 s Time: 56:51 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 153.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 54.8 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.48 km/h Running and total Run: 2:19:31 (4:39 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:26:54 (4:54 / km) Error: −7:23 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 5:14:08 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 56:51 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h) Run: 2:19:31 (4:39 / km) Total: 5:14:08
0 / 1	Hannah Maher NZL	+0 s +38 s	G0 / G2	2:16:06		Show details Prediction details: Hannah Maher Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 54:18 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 32.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:16:06 (4:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 54:18 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Serena Carter GBR	+0 s +174 s	G0 / G4	2:21:01		Show details Prediction details: Serena Carter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 54:18 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +174 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:21:01 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 54:18 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Aleisha Williams NZL	+0 s +1 s	G0 / G1	2:43:33		Show details Prediction details: Aleisha Williams Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 54:18 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:43:33 (5:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 54:18 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Ewa Susmarska POL	+0 s +1089 s	G0 / G5	2:42:16		Show details Prediction details: Ewa Susmarska Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 54:18 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1089 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 29.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:42:16 (5:25 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 54:18 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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Cycling

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