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30-34 Female AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 23/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 5.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.6
Mean swim error360.0 s
Mean bike-speed error10.32 km/h
Correct bike groups1/5
No history12
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 17 Terra McLaren
CAN
+677 s
+1099 s
G5 / G14
 3:52:04
3:25:03
 7:45:23
Show details
Prediction details: Terra McLaren

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +677 s
Time: 1:14:01
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1099 s
Fehler: -422.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 115.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 26.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:52:04 (7:44 / km)
Historical basis: 7:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:25:03 (6:50 / km)
Error: +27:01 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 7:45:23
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 1:14:01 (2:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:42:02 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 3:52:04 (7:44 / km)
Total: 7:45:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:02:48
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 673.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Jess Belcher
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
2:25:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jess Belcher

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:25:00 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Helen Perry
IRL
+0 s
+443 s
G0 / G5
2:16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Helen Perry

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +443 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:16:49 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Rebecca Wright
GBR
+0 s
+577 s
G0 / G4
2:19:49
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Wright

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +577 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:19:49 (4:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Julia Kilian
GER
+132 s
+458 s
G2 / G2
correct
2:27:45
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Kilian

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +132 s
Time: 1:04:56
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +458 s
Fehler: -326.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 132.0 s
Gap behind: 363.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:27:45 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 1:04:56 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:02:48
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 128.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Gabriela Soledad Velásquez Alvarez
CHI
+0 s
+282 s
G0 / G3
2:30:15
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriela Soledad Velásquez Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +282 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:15 (5:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Rebecca Stobart
GBR
+0 s
+295 s
G0 / G5
2:30:05
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Stobart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +295 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:05 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Noelle-Priscilla Darabant-Husanu
ROU
+0 s
+885 s
G0 / G2
2:43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Noelle-Priscilla Darabant-Husanu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +885 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:43:05 (5:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Charlotte Sullivan
GBR
+0 s
+676 s
G1 / G9
2:25:57
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Sullivan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +676 s
Fehler: -676.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 132.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:25:57 (4:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Elaina Gard
GBR
+0 s
+454 s
G0 / G7
2:28:06
Show details
Prediction details: Elaina Gard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +454 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:28:06 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Mª De Las Nieves Gemio Rodríguez
ESP
+495 s
+434 s
G3 / G6
2:40:55
Show details
Prediction details: Mª De Las Nieves Gemio Rodríguez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +495 s
Time: 1:10:59
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +434 s
Fehler: 61.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 363.0 s
Gap behind: 67.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:40:55 (5:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 1:10:59 (2:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:02:48
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 491.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Claire Davey
GBR
+0 s
+241 s
G0 / G8
2:39:43
Show details
Prediction details: Claire Davey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +241 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:39:43 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Emilie Mullier
FRA
+0 s
+560 s
G0 / G12
2:27:49
Show details
Prediction details: Emilie Mullier

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +560 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:27:49 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Theresa Daniella Araya Barraza
CHI
+0 s
+661 s
G0 / G10
2:37:23
Show details
Prediction details: Theresa Daniella Araya Barraza

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +661 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 27.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:37:23 (5:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Aurora Borquez Borquez
CHI
+0 s
+1033 s
G0 / G14
2:49:21
Show details
Prediction details: Aurora Borquez Borquez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1033 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:49:21 (5:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Amanda McAleavey
GBR
+562 s
+877 s
G4 / G11
3:07:57
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda McAleavey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +562 s
Time: 1:12:06
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +877 s
Fehler: -315.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 67.0 s
Gap behind: 115.0 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 27.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:07:57 (6:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 1:12:06 (2:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52:04 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:02:48
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 558.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Maria Antonia Serra Cardona
ESP
+0 s
+512 s
G0 / G13
3:07:10
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Antonia Serra Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:02:44
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +512 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:07:10 (6:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:02:44 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.