Prediction comparison

55-59 Male AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 21/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 2.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 4.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error22.8

Mean swim error230.8 s

Mean bike-speed error4.72 km/h

Correct bike groups2/33

No history14

Within the 80% range25.5 %

						Details
1 / 20	Mark Esselink NZL	+875 s +921 s	G3 / G23	2:11:24 2:25:44	5:58:39	Show details Prediction details: Mark Esselink Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +875 s Time: 1:02:56 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +921 s Fehler: -46.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 24, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 25.9 s Gap behind: 10.1 s Result: Group 23 (2 people) Speed: 30.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.92 km/h Running and total Run: 2:11:24 (4:23 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:25:44 (4:51 / km) Error: −14:20 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 5:58:39 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 1:02:56 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: 2:11:24 (4:23 / km) Total: 5:58:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 541.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4	Bruno De Decker BEL	+193 s +189 s	G1 / G3	2:45:48 2:18:48	6:05:00	Show details Prediction details: Bruno De Decker Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 29–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +193 s Time: 51:34 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +189 s Fehler: 3.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.6 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 2:45:48 (5:32 / km) Historical basis: 5:32 / km Best comparable pace: 5:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:18:48 (4:38 / km) Error: +27:00 / +0:54 / km Overall prediction: 6:05:00 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 51:34 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: 2:45:48 (5:32 / km) Total: 6:05:00
3 / 24	Gregory Shimizu CAN	+337 s +589 s	G2 / G22	2:37:06 2:45:57	6:07:59	Show details Prediction details: Gregory Shimizu Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 29–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: -21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +337 s Time: 53:58 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +589 s Fehler: -251.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 54.2 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 22 (1 people) Speed: 29.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.97 km/h Running and total Run: 2:37:06 (5:14 / km) Historical basis: 5:14 / km Best comparable pace: 5:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:45:57 (5:32 / km) Error: −8:51 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 6:07:59 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 53:58 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: 2:37:06 (5:14 / km) Total: 6:07:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 48:25 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 333.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 40	Barry Herbison NZL	+419 s +419 s	G2 / G37	2:41:07 3:21:51	6:12:00	Show details Prediction details: Barry Herbison Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 30–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: -36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +419 s Time: 55:20 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +419 s Fehler: -0.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 26.9 s Gap behind: 8.1 s Result: Group 37 (1 people) Speed: 26.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.67 km/h Running and total Run: 2:41:07 (5:22 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:21:51 (6:44 / km) Error: −40:44 / −1:21 / km Overall prediction: 6:12:00 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 55:20 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: 2:41:07 (5:22 / km) Total: 6:12:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 85.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 41	Pascal Mercier BEL	+212 s +580 s	G1 / G31	3:33:24 3:35:30	6:52:36	Show details Prediction details: Pascal Mercier Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 32–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: -36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +212 s Time: 51:53 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +580 s Fehler: -368.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 53.0 s Result: Group 31 (1 people) Speed: 28.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.45 km/h Running and total Run: 3:33:24 (7:07 / km) Historical basis: 7:07 / km Best comparable pace: 7:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:35:30 (7:11 / km) Error: −2:06 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 6:52:36 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 51:53 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: 3:33:24 (7:07 / km) Total: 6:52:36
6 / 21	Egil Solstad NOR	+0 s +431 s	G1 / G14	5:10:54 2:54:37	8:30:06	Show details Prediction details: Egil Solstad Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 33–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +431 s Fehler: -431.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.03 km/h Running and total Run: 5:10:54 (10:22 / km) Historical basis: 10:22 / km Best comparable pace: 10:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:54:37 (5:49 / km) Error: +136:17 / +4:33 / km Overall prediction: 8:30:06 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: 5:10:54 (10:22 / km) Total: 8:30:06
0 / 1	Paolo Massarenti ITA	+0 s +408 s	G1 / G4	1:59:44		Show details Prediction details: Paolo Massarenti Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +408 s Fehler: -408.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 34.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:59:44 (3:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 2	Pete Eggleston GBR	+283 s +181 s	G1 / G1 correct	2:09:14		Show details Prediction details: Pete Eggleston Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–9 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +283 s Time: 53:04 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +181 s Fehler: 102.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.0 s Gap behind: 54.2 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:09:14 (4:18 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 53:04 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Preben Jacobsen DEN	+178 s +41 s	G1 / G2	2:18:13		Show details Prediction details: Preben Jacobsen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +178 s Time: 51:19 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 137.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 31.0 s Gap behind: 14.6 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:18:13 (4:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 51:19 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5	Pascal Cassez FRA	+0 s +443 s	G1 / G6	2:14:15		Show details Prediction details: Pascal Cassez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +443 s Fehler: -443.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 147.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:14:15 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6	Pedro Pou Bonnin ESP	+0 s +600 s	G0 / G5	2:15:58		Show details Prediction details: Pedro Pou Bonnin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 34–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +600 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:15:58 (4:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Alessandro Gattamorta ITA	+0 s +721 s	G0 / G9	2:13:37		Show details Prediction details: Alessandro Gattamorta Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 35–35 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +721 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:13:37 (4:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Marc Arseneau CAN	+147 s +63 s	G1 / G1 correct	2:32:56		Show details Prediction details: Marc Arseneau Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +147 s Time: 50:48 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: 84.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 147.0 s Gap behind: 31.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:32:56 (5:06 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 50:48 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9	Michel Vernet FRA	+0 s +437 s	G0 / G8	2:15:56		Show details Prediction details: Michel Vernet Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 36–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +437 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:15:56 (4:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Lars Brix DEN	+732 s +698 s	G3 / G11	2:14:34		Show details Prediction details: Lars Brix Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 20–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +732 s Time: 1:00:33 Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +698 s Fehler: 34.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 21, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 30.0 s Gap behind: 107.0 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:14:34 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 1:00:33 (2:01 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 48:25 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 728.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Christophe Renault FRA	+0 s +280 s	G0 / G7	2:24:41		Show details Prediction details: Christophe Renault Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 37–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +280 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:24:41 (4:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Serafin Bereziartua Zubizarreta ESP	+338 s +601 s	G2 / G13	2:15:52		Show details Prediction details: Serafin Bereziartua Zubizarreta Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–17 Top-10 probability: 71 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +338 s Time: 53:59 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +601 s Fehler: -263.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 54.0 s Result: Group 13 (1 people) Speed: 32.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:15:52 (4:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 53:59 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 4.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13	Luis De Arriba Hernando ESP	+845 s +381 s	G3 / G16	2:24:28		Show details Prediction details: Luis De Arriba Hernando Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 20–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +845 s Time: 1:02:26 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +381 s Fehler: 464.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 23, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.0 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 16 (1 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:24:28 (4:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 1:02:26 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 511.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14	Miguel Javier Cano Vivancos ESP	+392 s +467 s	G2 / G19	2:20:22		Show details Prediction details: Miguel Javier Cano Vivancos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–19 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +392 s Time: 54:53 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +467 s Fehler: -75.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 54.0 s Gap behind: 26.9 s Result: Group 19 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:20:22 (4:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 54:53 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 58.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15	John Levick GBR	+0 s +216 s	G1 / G12	2:38:05		Show details Prediction details: John Levick Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +216 s Fehler: -216.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 12 (1 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.39 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:38:05 (5:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 16	Gregory Burford AUS	+0 s +468 s	G0 / G18	2:30:05		Show details Prediction details: Gregory Burford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 38–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +468 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 18 (1 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:05 (5:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Gervasio Dionisio Da Silva BRA	+427 s +294 s	G2 / G10	2:45:29		Show details Prediction details: Gervasio Dionisio Da Silva Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–18 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +427 s Time: 55:28 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +294 s Fehler: 133.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.1 s Gap behind: 33.0 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:45:29 (5:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 55:28 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 93.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18	Cristian Ramiro Topp Mendoza CHI	+0 s +585 s	G0 / G15	2:40:07		Show details Prediction details: Cristian Ramiro Topp Mendoza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 39–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +585 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 15 (1 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:40:07 (5:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	John Baker USA	+583 s +411 s	G2 / G17	2:36:28		Show details Prediction details: John Baker Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–19 Top-10 probability: 23 % Result: 19 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +583 s Time: 58:04 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +411 s Fehler: 172.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 26.0 s Result: Group 17 (1 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:36:28 (5:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 58:04 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 249.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22	Juan Carlos Rueda Ayuso ESP	+460 s +856 s	G2 / G28	2:29:41		Show details Prediction details: Juan Carlos Rueda Ayuso Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–19 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 22 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +460 s Time: 56:01 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +856 s Fehler: -396.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 33.0 s Gap behind: 77.0 s Result: Group 28 (1 people) Speed: 29.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:29:41 (4:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 56:01 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 126.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23	Darren Griffiths AUS	+839 s +1034 s	G3 / G32	2:20:53		Show details Prediction details: Darren Griffiths Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +839 s Time: 1:02:20 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1034 s Fehler: -195.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 22, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 107.0 s Gap behind: 6.0 s Result: Group 32 (1 people) Speed: 28.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.31 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:20:53 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 1:02:20 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 505.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25	Koen De Clercq BEL	+0 s +1510 s	G0 / G29	2:34:53		Show details Prediction details: Koen De Clercq Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 40–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1510 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 29 (2 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:34:53 (5:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26	Henry Povey GBR	+702 s +983 s	G2 / G26	2:41:07		Show details Prediction details: Henry Povey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–18 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 26 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +702 s Time: 1:00:03 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +983 s Fehler: -281.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 20, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.0 s Gap behind: 30.0 s Result: Group 26 (1 people) Speed: 30.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.86 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:41:07 (5:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 1:00:03 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 368.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 27	Makoto Menju JPN	+0 s +385 s	G0 / G20	2:49:59		Show details Prediction details: Makoto Menju Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 41–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +385 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 20 (1 people) Speed: 29.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:49:59 (5:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28	Jaime Dispenza USA	+537 s +494 s	G2 / G21	2:51:18		Show details Prediction details: Jaime Dispenza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–18 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 28 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +537 s Time: 57:18 Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +494 s Fehler: 43.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 77.0 s Gap behind: 32.0 s Result: Group 21 (1 people) Speed: 29.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.06 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:51:18 (5:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 57:18 (1:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 203.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29	Kuniyuki Ohtsuka JPN	+1,131 s +751 s	G3 / G27	2:48:12		Show details Prediction details: Kuniyuki Ohtsuka Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,131 s Time: 1:07:12 Pace: 2:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +751 s Fehler: 380.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 26, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 246.0 s Gap behind: 241.0 s Result: Group 27 (1 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:48:12 (5:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 1:07:12 (2:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 797.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30	Glen Macfarlane GBR	+609 s +769 s	G2 / G23	2:51:10		Show details Prediction details: Glen Macfarlane Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–18 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 30 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +609 s Time: 58:30 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +769 s Fehler: -160.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 26.0 s Gap behind: 26.0 s Result: Group 23 (2 people) Speed: 30.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.86 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:51:10 (5:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 58:30 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 275.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31	David Stewart GBR	+265 s +722 s	G1 / G29	2:46:59		Show details Prediction details: David Stewart Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 31 Deviation: -31 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +265 s Time: 52:46 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +722 s Fehler: -457.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 88 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 53.0 s Gap behind: 18.0 s Result: Group 29 (2 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.09 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:46:59 (5:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 52:46 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 32	Richard Wood GBR	+0 s +465 s	G0 / G24	2:56:00		Show details Prediction details: Richard Wood Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 42–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +465 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 24 (1 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:56:00 (5:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 33	Daren Allen GBR	+635 s +582 s	G2 / G35	2:46:52		Show details Prediction details: Daren Allen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–18 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 33 Deviation: -33 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +635 s Time: 58:56 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +582 s Fehler: 53.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 26.0 s Gap behind: 50.0 s Result: Group 35 (1 people) Speed: 26.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.19 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:46:52 (5:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 58:56 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 301.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 34	Rob Marshall GBR	+0 s +164 s	G0 / G30	3:06:32		Show details Prediction details: Rob Marshall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 43–43 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +164 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 30 (1 people) Speed: 27.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:06:32 (6:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 35	Andrew Mann GBR	+885 s +905 s	G3 / G38	2:53:34		Show details Prediction details: Andrew Mann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: -35 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +885 s Time: 1:03:06 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +905 s Fehler: -20.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 25, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.1 s Gap behind: 246.0 s Result: Group 38 (1 people) Speed: 27.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.04 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:53:34 (5:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 1:03:06 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 551.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 36	Antonio Carlos Marques Gundim BRA	+849 s +1233 s	G3 / G33	3:10:17		Show details Prediction details: Antonio Carlos Marques Gundim Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: -36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +849 s Time: 1:02:30 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1233 s Fehler: -384.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 23, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 25.9 s Result: Group 33 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.41 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:10:17 (6:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 1:02:30 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 515.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 37	Francisco Javier Romero Garcia ESP	+0 s +657 s	G0 / G34	3:15:49		Show details Prediction details: Francisco Javier Romero Garcia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 44–44 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +657 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 34 (1 people) Speed: 27.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:15:49 (6:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38	Vicencio Antezana Pardo CHI	+0 s +827 s	G0 / G40	2:54:58		Show details Prediction details: Vicencio Antezana Pardo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 45–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +827 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 40 (1 people) Speed: 25.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:54:58 (5:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 39	Keiji Murakami JPN	+569 s +795 s	G2 / G39	2:59:54		Show details Prediction details: Keiji Murakami Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -39 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +569 s Time: 57:50 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +795 s Fehler: -226.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 32.0 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 39 (1 people) Speed: 26.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.84 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 2:59:54 (6:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 57:50 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 235.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 42	Marc Young USA	+198 s +0 s	G1 / G25	3:43:28		Show details Prediction details: Marc Young Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 42 Deviation: -42 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +198 s Time: 51:39 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 198.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 25 (1 people) Speed: 28.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:43:28 (7:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 51:39 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:14:29 (35.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 43	Avery Chapman USA	+685 s +975 s	G2 / G42	3:10:59		Show details Prediction details: Avery Chapman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–18 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 43 Deviation: -43 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +685 s Time: 59:46 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +975 s Fehler: -290.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 50.0 s Gap behind: 17.0 s Result: Group 42 (1 people) Speed: 25.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.55 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:10:59 (6:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 59:46 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:19:11 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 351.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 44	Douglas Sawyer USA	+1,372 s +1249 s	G3 / G36	3:43:01		Show details Prediction details: Douglas Sawyer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: -44 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,372 s Time: 1:11:13 Pace: 2:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1249 s Fehler: 123.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 27, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 241.0 s Gap behind: 552.0 s Result: Group 36 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:43:01 (7:26 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 1:11:13 (2:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 1038.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 45	Guillermo Mozo Millan COL	+1,924 s +1145 s	G3 / G43	3:50:36		Show details Prediction details: Guillermo Mozo Millan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: -45 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,924 s Time: 1:20:25 Pace: 2:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1145 s Fehler: 779.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 28, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 552.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 43 (1 people) Speed: 24.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.24 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:50:36 (7:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 1:20:25 (2:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15:11 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 53:54 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m About 1590.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 46	Makoto Kitano JPN	+0 s +2046 s	G0 / G45	3:38:07		Show details Prediction details: Makoto Kitano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 46–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2046 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 45 (1 people) Speed: 24.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:38:07 (7:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 47	Rodrigo Besoain Valenzuela CHI	+0 s +909 s	G0 / G44	3:59:43		Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Besoain Valenzuela Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 47–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 48:21 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +909 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 44 (1 people) Speed: 23.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 3:59:43 (7:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 48:21 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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