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60-64 Male AG

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 22/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 3.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error14.0
Mean swim error354.3 s
Mean bike-speed error3.50 km/h
Correct bike groups1/22
No history8
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Details
1 / 4 Miguel Isla Rodriguez
ESP
+2 s
+126 s
G1 / G4
 2:48:14
2:30:50
 6:11:38
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Isla Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 46:44
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: -124.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:48:14 (5:36 / km)
Historical basis: 5:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:50 (5:02 / km)
Error: +17:24 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 6:11:38
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 46:44 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 2:48:14 (5:36 / km)
Total: 6:11:38
2 / 9 Mark King
GBR
+694 s
+1040 s
G2 / G14
 2:13:04
2:30:59
 6:24:32
Show details
Prediction details: Mark King

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +694 s
Time: 58:16
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1040 s
Fehler: -345.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.4 s
Gap behind: 26.6 s
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:13:04 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:59 (5:02 / km)
Error: −17:55 / −0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 6:24:32
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 58:16 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 2:13:04 (4:26 / km)
Total: 6:24:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 304.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 18 Dave Scott
NZL
+394 s
+455 s
G2 / G19
 2:17:58
2:53:36
 6:29:26
Show details
Prediction details: Dave Scott

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +394 s
Time: 53:16
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +455 s
Fehler: -60.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.3 s
Gap behind: 38.7 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:17:58 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:53:36 (5:47 / km)
Error: −35:38 / −1:11 / km
Overall prediction: 6:29:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 53:16 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 2:17:58 (4:36 / km)
Total: 6:29:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 46:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 388.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 24 Jeff Shmoorkoff
CAN
+1,000 s
+1860 s
G3 / G26
 2:42:21
3:20:46
 7:03:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jeff Shmoorkoff

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,000 s
Time: 1:03:22
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1860 s
Fehler: -860.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 67.0 s
Gap behind: 1,055.0 s
Result: Group 26 (2 people)
Speed: 25.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:42:21 (5:25 / km)
Historical basis: 5:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:20:46 (6:42 / km)
Error: −38:25 / −1:17 / km
Overall prediction: 7:03:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:03:22 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:47:00 (28.5 km/h)
Run: 2:42:21 (5:25 / km)
Total: 7:03:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 46:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 994.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Jesús Alberto Alonso Abad
ESP
+433 s
+600 s
G2 / G8
 2:52:31
2:30:33
 7:03:59
Show details
Prediction details: Jesús Alberto Alonso Abad

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +433 s
Time: 53:55
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +600 s
Fehler: -167.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.7 s
Gap behind: 63.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:52:31 (5:45 / km)
Historical basis: 5:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:30:33 (5:01 / km)
Error: +21:58 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 7:03:59
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 53:55 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 2:52:31 (5:45 / km)
Total: 7:03:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 42.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Kevin Howard Bexley
GBR
+386 s
+646 s
G1 / G1
correct
2:16:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Howard Bexley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +386 s
Time: 53:08
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +646 s
Fehler: -260.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 8.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:16:28 (4:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 53:08 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 2 Christopher Doyle
LUX
+0 s
+551 s
G1 / G2
2:19:32
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Doyle

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +551 s
Fehler: -551.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:19:32 (4:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Christophe Romano
FRA
+0 s
+720 s
G0 / G3
2:37:10
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Romano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +720 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:37:10 (5:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Patrick Le Meur
FRA
+11 s
+179 s
G1 / G5
2:33:43
Show details
Prediction details: Patrick Le Meur

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 46:53
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +179 s
Fehler: -168.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 101.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:33:43 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 46:53 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Jesus Aureo Martinez Rubio
ESP
+496 s
+941 s
G2 / G12
2:23:34
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Aureo Martinez Rubio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +496 s
Time: 54:58
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +941 s
Fehler: -445.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 63.0 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:23:34 (4:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 54:58 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 105.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Randall Puckett
USA
+0 s
+467 s
G0 / G9
2:39:25
Show details
Prediction details: Randall Puckett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +467 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:39:25 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Jose Miguel Lopez Alfaraz
ESP
+342 s
+313 s
G1 / G6
2:56:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Miguel Lopez Alfaraz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +342 s
Time: 52:24
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +313 s
Fehler: 29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 130.0 s
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:56:09 (5:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 52:24 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 11 Pim Veeger
NED
+600 s
+608 s
G2 / G7
3:01:15
Show details
Prediction details: Pim Veeger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +600 s
Time: 56:42
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +608 s
Fehler: -8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 83.0 s
Gap behind: 33.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:01:15 (6:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 56:42 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 209.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Gustau Raluy Bruguera
ESP
+933 s
+785 s
G2 / G13
2:42:00
Show details
Prediction details: Gustau Raluy Bruguera

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +933 s
Time: 1:02:15
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +785 s
Fehler: 148.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 67.0 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:42:00 (5:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 1:02:15 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 542.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Didier Marysael
FRA
+112 s
+938 s
G1 / G11
3:02:46
Show details
Prediction details: Didier Marysael

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +112 s
Time: 48:34
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +938 s
Fehler: -826.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 101.0 s
Gap behind: 100.0 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:02:46 (6:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 48:34 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 14 Jürgen Zippert
GER
+358 s
+618 s
G1 / G17
2:39:58
Show details
Prediction details: Jürgen Zippert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +358 s
Time: 52:40
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +618 s
Fehler: -260.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: 24.0 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:39:58 (5:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 52:40 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 15 Vic Spain
GBR
+2,055 s
+1356 s
G3 / G18
2:41:45
Show details
Prediction details: Vic Spain

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2,055 s
Time: 1:20:57
Pace: 2:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1356 s
Fehler: 699.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 20, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1,055.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (2 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:41:45 (5:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 1:20:57 (2:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:47:00 (28.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 1664.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Ade Grimmond
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G10
3:11:49
Show details
Prediction details: Ade Grimmond

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:11:49 (6:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Jesus Granell Moreno
ESP
+0 s
+948 s
G0 / G18
2:45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Granell Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +948 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (2 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:45:09 (5:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 José Morán Martín
ESP
+212 s
+593 s
G1 / G23
3:02:31
Show details
Prediction details: José Morán Martín

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +212 s
Time: 50:14
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +593 s
Fehler: -381.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 100.0 s
Gap behind: 130.0 s
Result: Group 23 (1 people)
Speed: 24.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:02:31 (6:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 50:14 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 20 Pedro Vargas Vera
CHI
+0 s
+1532 s
G0 / G22
3:08:12
Show details
Prediction details: Pedro Vargas Vera

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1532 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 27.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:08:12 (6:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Antonio Puche Martinez
ESP
+721 s
+689 s
G2 / G16
3:32:14
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Puche Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +721 s
Time: 58:43
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +689 s
Fehler: 32.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.6 s
Gap behind: 201.0 s
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:32:14 (7:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 58:43 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 330.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Manuel Vales Bahamonde
ESP
+517 s
+477 s
G2 / G15
3:40:41
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Vales Bahamonde

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +517 s
Time: 55:19
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +477 s
Fehler: 40.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 83.0 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:40:41 (7:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 55:19 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 126.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Mohamed El Khalil Binebine
MAR
+0 s
+914 s
G0 / G20
3:29:56
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed El Khalil Binebine

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +914 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 27.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:29:56 (7:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Shaun Crowley
GBR
+922 s
+1369 s
G2 / G24
3:28:50
Show details
Prediction details: Shaun Crowley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +922 s
Time: 1:02:04
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1369 s
Fehler: -447.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 201.0 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 24 (1 people)
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:28:50 (6:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:02:04 (2:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 531.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Richard Walker
GBR
+0 s
+758 s
G0 / G25
3:33:42
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Walker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +758 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 25 (1 people)
Speed: 24.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:33:42 (7:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Damianos Pridesis
NOR
+633 s
+1228 s
G2 / G26
3:25:36
Show details
Prediction details: Damianos Pridesis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +633 s
Time: 57:15
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1228 s
Fehler: -595.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.0 s
Gap behind: 28.0 s
Result: Group 26 (2 people)
Speed: 24.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:25:36 (6:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 57:15 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 242.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28 David Field
GBR
+382 s
+655 s
G1 / G21
3:55:48
Show details
Prediction details: David Field

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +382 s
Time: 53:04
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +655 s
Fehler: -273.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.0 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 25.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:55:48 (7:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 53:04 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:16:58 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 29 Daniel Lamarre
CAN
+0 s
+1742 s
G0 / G27
3:22:51
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Lamarre

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 46:42
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1742 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 27 (1 people)
Speed: 23.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:22:51 (6:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 46:42 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Matt Troy
USA
+661 s
+1737 s
G2 / G28
4:35:13
Show details
Prediction details: Matt Troy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +661 s
Time: 57:43
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1737 s
Fehler: -1,076.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.0 s
Gap behind: 33.4 s
Result: Group 28 (1 people)
Speed: 21.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:35:13 (9:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 57:43 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:55:55 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 53:12
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 270.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +390.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.