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PTVI Men

07.05.2023 Ibiza ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Long Distance Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.7
Mean swim error154.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.83 km/h
Correct bike groups2/3
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Details
1 / 1 Zhalaldin Abduvaliev B1
KGZ
+108 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		2:10:28
2:39:19
 5:49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Zhalaldin Abduvaliev B1

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 59:28
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 108.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 176.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:10:28 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:39:19 (5:21 / km)
Error: −28:51 / −0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 5:49:12
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 59:28 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:36:56 (32.1 km/h)
Run: 2:10:28 (4:23 / km)
Total: 5:49:12
0 / 2 Nicolas Dewalque B3
BEL
+284 s
+559 s
G2 / G2
correct
3:07:19
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Dewalque B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +284 s
Time: 1:02:24
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +559 s
Fehler: -275.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 176.0 s
Gap behind: 185.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:07:19 (6:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:02:24 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:46:38 (30.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 59:32
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
About 172.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +111.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Fernando Anitua García B3
ESP
+469 s
+549 s
G2 / G3
2:51:09
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando Anitua García B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +469 s
Time: 1:05:29
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +549 s
Fehler: -80.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 185.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 27.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:51:09 (5:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:05:29 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:46:38 (30.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 1:02:20
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
About 189.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +279.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.