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PTS2 Women

23.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Para Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error50.4 s
Mean bike-speed error3.37 km/h
Correct bike groups3/8
No history0
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Details
1 / 4 Melissa Stockwell
USA
+20 s
+46 s
G1 / G5
 25:13
23:40
 1:02:44
Show details
Prediction details: Melissa Stockwell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 12:41
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.0 s
Gap behind: 15.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Historical basis: 5:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (4:44 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:41 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:55 (31.6 km/h)
Run: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Total: 1:02:44
2 / 1 Hailey Danz
USA
+36 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		25:29
23:34
 1:03:00
Show details
Prediction details: Hailey Danz

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 12:57
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 35.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.8 s
Gap behind: 17.2 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:29 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 (4:43 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:57 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:55 (31.6 km/h)
Run: 25:29 (5:06 / km)
Total: 1:03:00
3 / 2 Anu Francis
AUS
+254 s
+125 s
G2 / G2
correct 		26:29
22:01
 1:08:44
Show details
Prediction details: Anu Francis

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +254 s
Time: 16:35
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +125 s
Fehler: 129.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 151.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Historical basis: 5:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Error: +4:28 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:44
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 16:35 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:01 (29.9 km/h)
Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Total: 1:08:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:10
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 205.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Yukako Hata
JPN
+0 s
+22 s
G1 / G4
 34:28
27:30
 1:11:59
Show details
Prediction details: Yukako Hata

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -22.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:28 (6:54 / km)
Historical basis: 6:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:30 (5:30 / km)
Error: +6:58 / +1:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:21 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:55 (31.6 km/h)
Run: 34:28 (6:54 / km)
Total: 1:11:59
5 / 7 Veronica Yoko Plebani
ITA
+102 s
+124 s
G2 / G8
 30:33
25:29
 1:12:48
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Prediction details: Veronica Yoko Plebani

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +124 s
Fehler: -21.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.5 s
Gap behind: 151.7 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:33 (6:07 / km)
Historical basis: 6:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:29 (5:06 / km)
Error: +5:04 / +1:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:48
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:01 (29.9 km/h)
Run: 30:33 (6:07 / km)
Total: 1:12:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:45
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
About 78.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3 Allysa Seely
USA
+53 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:04
22:02
 1:19:33
Show details
Prediction details: Allysa Seely

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 13:14
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 28.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.2 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:04 (7:13 / km)
Historical basis: 7:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:02 (4:24 / km)
Error: +14:02 / +2:48 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:14 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:36 (27.6 km/h)
Run: 36:04 (7:13 / km)
Total: 1:19:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:45
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Rakel Mateo Uriarte
ESP
+65 s
+56 s
G2 / G6
 37:37
31:11
 1:19:52
Show details
Prediction details: Rakel Mateo Uriarte

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 13:26
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 37.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 27.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:37 (7:31 / km)
Historical basis: 7:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:11 (6:14 / km)
Error: +6:26 / +1:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:26 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:01 (29.9 km/h)
Run: 37:37 (7:31 / km)
Total: 1:19:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:45
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
About 40.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Neele Ludwig
GER
+0 s
+132 s
G1 / G7
25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Neele Ludwig

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +132 s
Fehler: -132.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 20.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:46 (5:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:21 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:55 (31.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable