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Elite Women

14.07.2023 Hamburg GER
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Hamburg

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 89.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error13.7
Mean swim error13.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.02 km/h
Correct bike groups17/56
No history0
Within the 80% range64.3 %
Details
1 / 23 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+16 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:21
6:15
 16:39
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–28
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:03
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:15 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 16:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:03 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 16:39
2 / 6 Nicole Van Der Kaay
NZL
+8 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 5:27
5:51
 16:45
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Van Der Kaay

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–15
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:27 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 16:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:55 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:27 (3:07 / km)
Total: 16:45
3 / 18 Katie Zaferes
USA
+13 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 5:31
6:02
 16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Zaferes

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–26
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 4:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:31 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:02 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 16:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:31 (3:09 / km)
Total: 16:49
4 / 3 Laura Lindemann
GER
+10 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 5:33
5:41
 16:51
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Lindemann

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–23
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 16:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Total: 16:51
5 / 33 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:37
6:06
 16:55
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 3:49
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:37 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:06 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 16:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:49 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:37 (3:13 / km)
Total: 16:55
6 / 16 Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer
HUN
+13 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 5:38
5:59
 16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–26
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 4:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:38 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 16:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:38 (3:13 / km)
Total: 16:56
7 / 25 Lizeth Rueda Santos
MEX
+10 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 5:39
6:00
 16:57
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Rueda Santos

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–24
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:39 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 16:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:39 (3:14 / km)
Total: 16:57
8 / 30 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+19 s
+24 s
G1 / G5
 5:40
5:52
 16:58
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–41
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:06
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:40 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 16:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:06 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:40 (3:14 / km)
Total: 16:58
9 / 24 Emma Jackson
AUS
+10 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 5:45
5:58
 17:03
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jackson

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–29
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -6.7 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Total: 17:03
10 / 21 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+20 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:45
6:05
 17:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–46
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:07 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Total: 17:03
11 / 1 Cassandre Beaugrand
FRA
+6 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 5:46
5:30
 17:04
Show details
Prediction details: Cassandre Beaugrand

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 3:53
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:53 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (3:18 / km)
Total: 17:04
12 / 10 Summer Rappaport
USA
+1 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 5:48
6:21
 17:06
Show details
Prediction details: Summer Rappaport

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 3:48
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:21 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 17:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:48 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:06
13 / 44 Olivia Thornbury
NZL
+20 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:48
6:33
 17:06
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Thornbury

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–44
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 17:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:07 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:06
14 / 40 Djenyfer Arnold
BRA
+10 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:52
6:14
 17:10
Show details
Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Total: 17:10
15 / 29 Selina Klamt
GER
+11 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 5:52
6:13
 17:10
Show details
Prediction details: Selina Klamt

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–32
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:58
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:13 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:58 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Total: 17:10
16 / 27 Natalie Van Coevorden
AUS
+12 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 5:53
6:07
 17:11
Show details
Prediction details: Natalie Van Coevorden

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–32
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:53 (3:22 / km)
Total: 17:11
17 / 2 Beth Potter
GBR
+14 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 5:53
5:42
 17:11
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–35
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 4:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 17:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:53 (3:21 / km)
Total: 17:11
18 / 17 Lena Meißner
GER
+7 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 5:54
6:07
 17:12
Show details
Prediction details: Lena Meißner

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 2–42
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:54 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Total: 17:12
19 / 41 Brea Roderick
NZL
+16 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:54
6:16
 17:12
Show details
Prediction details: Brea Roderick

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–38
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:03
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:16 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:03 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Total: 17:12
20 / 9 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+23 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:26
5:58
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 6–25
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:10
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:26 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:10 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:26 (3:06 / km)
Total: 17:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
21 / 7 Taylor Spivey
USA
+12 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 5:56
5:54
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:14
22 / 5 Marlene Gomez-Göggel
GER
+32 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:28
5:48
 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marlene Gomez-Göggel

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 6–45
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:19
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 20.2 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:28 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:19 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:28 (3:08 / km)
Total: 17:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
23 / 12 Rachel Klamer
NED
+14 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 5:58
5:49
 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Klamer

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 18–41
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 4:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.4 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:49 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (3:25 / km)
Total: 17:16
24 / 47 Anne Holm
DEN
+11 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:59
6:47
 17:17
Show details
Prediction details: Anne Holm

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 8–43
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:58
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:59 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:47 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 17:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:58 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:59 (3:25 / km)
Total: 17:17
25 / 14 Kirsten Kasper
USA
+22 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:34
5:54
 17:22
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Kasper

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:09
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:34 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:09 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:34 (3:11 / km)
Total: 17:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 2.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 36 Yuko Takahashi
JPN
+28 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 5:34
6:12
 17:22
Show details
Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 6–42
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 4:15
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:34 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 17:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:15 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:34 (3:11 / km)
Total: 17:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
27 / 4 Annika Koch
GER
+30 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:35
5:47
 17:23
Show details
Prediction details: Annika Koch

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–39
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 4:17
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.6 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:35 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:47 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 17:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:35 (3:11 / km)
Total: 17:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 52 Anja Weber
SUI
+8 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 6:08
6:54
 17:26
Show details
Prediction details: Anja Weber

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 22–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:08 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:54 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 17:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:55 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 6:08 (3:30 / km)
Total: 17:26
29 / 33 Ilaria Zane
ITA
+30 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 5:41
6:01
 17:29
Show details
Prediction details: Ilaria Zane

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 11–49
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 4:17
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.6 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:41 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:01 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:41 (3:15 / km)
Total: 17:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 48 Alissa Konig
SUI
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G5
 5:43
6:00
 17:31
Show details
Prediction details: Alissa Konig

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 10–52
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:22
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:43 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:43 (3:16 / km)
Total: 17:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
31 / 28 Julia Hauser
AUT
+41 s
+22 s
G3 / G2
 5:27
6:13
 17:33
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 8–46
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 4:28
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:27 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:13 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 17:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:28 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:27 (3:07 / km)
Total: 17:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 21.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 38 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+27 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 5:45
6:07
 17:33
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 13–48
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Total: 17:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
33 / 54 Noémi Sárszegi
HUN
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G5
 5:46
6:27
 17:34
Show details
Prediction details: Noémi Sárszegi

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 10–53
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:22
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 17:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (3:18 / km)
Total: 17:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
34 / 15 Anabel Knoll
GER
+26 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:47
5:55
 17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Anabel Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 8–52
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:13
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:47 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 17:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:13 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:47 (3:18 / km)
Total: 17:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
35 / 26 Nora Gmür
SUI
+27 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:47
6:07
 17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 20–42
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:47 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:47 (3:18 / km)
Total: 17:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
36 / 19 Alberte Kjær Pedersen
DEN
+33 s
+18 s
G2 / G4
 5:48
6:12
 17:36
Show details
Prediction details: Alberte Kjær Pedersen

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 15–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 4:20
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 17:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:20 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:48 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
37 / 53 Kira Hedgeland
AUS
+27 s
+24 s
G2 / G5
 5:49
6:24
 17:37
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 13–46
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:24 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 17:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
38 / 11 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+25 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:50
5:50
 17:38
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 13–48
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:12
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:50 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 17:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:12 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (3:20 / km)
Total: 17:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
39 / 22 Solveig Løvseth
NOR
+46 s
+21 s
G3 / G2
 5:33
6:00
 17:39
Show details
Prediction details: Solveig Løvseth

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 20–52
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 4:33
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 24.6 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 17:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:33 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Total: 17:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
40 / 35 Carlotta Missaglia
ITA
+31 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 5:53
6:09
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Missaglia

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 27–50
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 4:18
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:09 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:18 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:53 (3:21 / km)
Total: 17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
41 / 50 Luisa Baptista
BRA
+38 s
+13 s
G3 / G4
 5:36
6:19
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Baptista

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 14–51
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 4:25
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 24.7 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:36 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:19 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:25 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:36 (3:12 / km)
Total: 17:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
42 / 51 Amber Schlebusch
RSA
+24 s
+24 s
G2 / G5
 5:54
6:11
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Amber Schlebusch

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 25–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:11
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:11 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:11 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (3:22 / km)
Total: 17:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
43 / 13 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+27 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:55
5:52
 17:43
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 20–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 13.3 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 17:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 17:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 32 Lotte Miller
NOR
+27 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 5:56
6:05
 17:44
Show details
Prediction details: Lotte Miller

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 19–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 17:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:07
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 43 Shanae Williams
RSA
+40 s
+9 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:41
6:05
 17:47
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 24–54
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 4:27
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 30.6 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:41 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:27 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:41 (3:15 / km)
Total: 17:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
46 / 55 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+8 s
+12 s
G1 / G6
 6:31
6:33
 17:49
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 27–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -4.2 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:31 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:55 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:58 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 6:31 (3:44 / km)
Total: 17:49
47 / 31 Dominika Jamnicky
CAN
+37 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 5:44
6:00
 17:50
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Jamnicky

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 12–50
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 4:24
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 18.5 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:24 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:16 / km)
Total: 17:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
48 / 39 Jaz Hedgeland
AUS
+41 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 5:45
5:51
 17:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jaz Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 26–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 4:28
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 26.3 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 17:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:28 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:17 / km)
Total: 17:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
49 / 42 Sara Vilic
AUT
+22 s
+8 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:04
6:17
 17:52
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Vilic

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 28–52
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:09
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:04 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:09 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:04 (3:28 / km)
Total: 17:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
50 / 49 Maria Tomé
POR
+32 s
+23 s
G2 / G5
 6:05
6:03
 17:53
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 29–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:19
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:05 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:19 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:05 (3:28 / km)
Total: 17:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
51 / 8 Cathia Schär
SUI
+44 s
+21 s
G3 / G2
 5:57
5:56
 18:03
Show details
Prediction details: Cathia Schär

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 29–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 43

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 4:31
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 23.3 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 18:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:31 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:21 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (3:24 / km)
Total: 18:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
52 / 37 Tilda Månsson
SWE
+53 s
+18 s
G4 / G3
 5:25
5:46
 18:07
Show details
Prediction details: Tilda Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 32–54
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 4:40
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 35.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:25 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:46 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 18:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:40 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:45 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 5:25 (3:06 / km)
Total: 18:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
53 / 56 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+30 s
+22 s
G2 / G6
 6:36
6:33
 18:24
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 46–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 4:17
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:36 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 18:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:14 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:36 (3:47 / km)
Total: 18:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
54 / 46 Ekaterina Shabalina
KAZ
+57 s
+16 s
G4 / G2
 5:44
6:26
 18:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ekaterina Shabalina

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 33–54
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 4:44
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 40.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 18:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:44 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:45 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:17 / km)
Total: 18:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
55 / 45 Lisa Perterer
AUT
+70 s
+16 s
G5 / G2
 5:33
6:15
 18:50
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Perterer

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 38–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 4:57
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 54.4 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:15 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 18:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:57 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:06 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 5:33 (3:10 / km)
Total: 18:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:06
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 50.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 57 Yan Yin Hilda Choi
HKG
+62 s
+24 s
G5 / G7
 6:08
6:48
 19:25
Show details
Prediction details: Yan Yin Hilda Choi

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 48–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 57
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 4:49
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 38.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:08 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:48 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 19:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:49 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:06 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 6:08 (3:30 / km)
Total: 19:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.