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16-17 Female

19.04.2024 Hurghada EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Africa Triathlon Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 14.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.4
Mean swim error29.5 s
Mean bike-speed error7.03 km/h
Correct bike groups3/5
No history2
Within the 80% range14.3 %
Details
1 / 2 Selena Vlahova
BUL
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:18
10:48
 26:02
Show details
Prediction details: Selena Vlahova

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:18 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:48 (4:19 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 26:02
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 5:56 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:44 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 11:18 (4:31 / km)
Total: 26:02
2 / 1 Israa Yahiaoui
TUN
+46 s
+73 s
G2 / G2
correct 		10:14
9:49
 31:51
Show details
Prediction details: Israa Yahiaoui

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 6:42
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -27.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.6 s
Gap behind: 76.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:14 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:49 (3:56 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 31:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:42 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:35 (28.8 km/h)
Run: 10:14 (4:06 / km)
Total: 31:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:00
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 41.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Maram Dewidar
EGY
+159 s
+150 s
G3 / G3
correct 		12:31
11:42
 39:06
Show details
Prediction details: Maram Dewidar

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +159 s
Time: 8:35
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: 9.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:31 (5:00 / km)
Historical basis: 5:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:42 (4:41 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 39:06
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 8:35 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 23:56 (25.1 km/h)
Run: 12:31 (5:00 / km)
Total: 39:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:00
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 155.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Nour Elshabory
EGY
+0 s
+36 s
G0 / G2
10:46
Show details
Prediction details: Nour Elshabory

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:46 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:56 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Dhifallah Eya
TUN
+0 s
+40 s
G0 / G2
12:36
Show details
Prediction details: Dhifallah Eya

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:36 (5:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:56 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Sama Mostafa
EGY
+122 s
+139 s
G2 / G4
16:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sama Mostafa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +122 s
Time: 7:58
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +139 s
Fehler: -17.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 76.4 s
Gap behind: 37.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (6:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:58 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:35 (28.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:00
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 118.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Logyna Ahmad
EGY
+0 s
+94 s
G1 / G5
15:56
Show details
Prediction details: Logyna Ahmad

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +94 s
Fehler: -94.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 45.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 24.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (6:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 5:56 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:44 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable