Prediction comparison

16-17 Male

19.04.2024 Hurghada EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Africa Triathlon Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 24/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 7.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.9

Mean swim error29.1 s

Mean bike-speed error4.27 km/h

Correct bike groups2/10

No history3

Within the 80% range23.1 %

						Details
1 / 10	Omar Albi LBA	+52 s +49 s	G2 / G6	8:34 9:41	29:06	Show details Prediction details: Omar Albi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 6:13 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: 3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 52.0 s Gap behind: 8.8 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 8:34 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:41 (3:52 / km) Error: −1:07 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 29:06 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 6:13 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:31 (30.6 km/h) Run: 8:34 (3:25 / km) Total: 29:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 48.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 8	Callum Smith ZIM	+107 s +126 s	G3 / G5	9:15 10:05	31:30	Show details Prediction details: Callum Smith Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +107 s Time: 7:08 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: -19.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.59 km/h Running and total Run: 9:15 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 (4:02 / km) Error: −0:50 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 31:30 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 7:08 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:16 (29.5 km/h) Run: 9:15 (3:42 / km) Total: 31:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 102.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9	Yassin Ezzat EGY	+61 s +22 s	G2 / G3	11:41 11:15	32:13	Show details Prediction details: Yassin Ezzat Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 6:22 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 38.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.8 s Gap behind: 42.2 s Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.40 km/h Running and total Run: 11:41 (4:40 / km) Historical basis: 4:40 / km Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:15 (4:30 / km) Error: +0:26 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 32:13 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:22 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:31 (30.6 km/h) Run: 11:41 (4:40 / km) Total: 32:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 56.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 12	Mohamed Abu Fares LBA	+151 s +76 s	G4 / G7	11:48 10:59	38:19	Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Abu Fares Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: 7:52 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: 74.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 31.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 30.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.15 km/h Running and total Run: 11:48 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:43 / km Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:59 (4:24 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 38:19 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:52 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:00 (25.0 km/h) Run: 11:48 (4:43 / km) Total: 38:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 146.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7	Abdelaziz Sobhy EGY	+113 s +85 s	G3 / G4	17:46 9:42	40:01	Show details Prediction details: Abdelaziz Sobhy Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +113 s Time: 7:14 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: 28.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 6.0 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.44 km/h Running and total Run: 17:46 (7:06 / km) Historical basis: 7:06 / km Best comparable pace: 7:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:42 (3:53 / km) Error: +8:04 / +3:14 / km Overall prediction: 40:01 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 7:14 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:16 (29.5 km/h) Run: 17:46 (7:06 / km) Total: 40:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 109.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Slama Mohamed Amine TUN	+0 s +29 s	G0 / G2	8:20		Show details Prediction details: Slama Mohamed Amine Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:20 (3:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Mohamed Amro EGY	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	9:23		Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Amro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.05 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 14:44 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Marwan Bassem EGY	+104 s +57 s	G3 / G3 correct	8:57		Show details Prediction details: Marwan Bassem Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: 7:05 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 47.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.63 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (3:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:05 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:16 (29.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 100.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Ibrahim Mahmoud EGY	+103 s +75 s	G3 / G4	8:42		Show details Prediction details: Ibrahim Mahmoud Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +103 s Time: 7:04 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: 28.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 42.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 34.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.60 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:42 (3:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:04 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:16 (29.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 99.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Mazen Abouadma EGY	+0 s +30 s	G0 / G3	9:36		Show details Prediction details: Mazen Abouadma Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:36 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Mohamed Abd El Moughny EGY	+0 s +26 s	G1 / G3	9:44		Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Abd El Moughny Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -26.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 52.0 s Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 34.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.56 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:44 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 14:44 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 11	Adam Saeb EGY	+0 s +31 s	G0 / G5	12:25		Show details Prediction details: Adam Saeb Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:25 (4:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Mohand Ayman EGY	+119 s +145 s	G3 / G7	12:54		Show details Prediction details: Mohand Ayman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 7:20 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +145 s Fehler: -26.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.0 s Gap behind: 31.8 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 32.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:54 (5:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 7:20 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:16 (29.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:25 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 115.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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