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U23 Men

19.04.2024 Hurghada EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Africa Triathlon Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 59/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 77.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.3
Mean swim error76.0 s
Mean bike-speed error3.33 km/h
Correct bike groups4/8
No history1
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Details
1 / 2 Zakaria Chtioui
TUN
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:51
35:13
 1:37:27
Show details
Prediction details: Zakaria Chtioui

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 20:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 58.3 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:13 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:34 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:37:27
2 / 6 Dawser Rezgui
TUN
+60 s
+72 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:50
36:40
 1:40:16
Show details
Prediction details: Dawser Rezgui

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 20:58
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 58.3 s
Gap behind: 19.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:16
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:58 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:26 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:40:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 54.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Mohamed Aziz Hamdi
TUN
+0 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:48
35:30
 1:40:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed Aziz Hamdi

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:48 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Error: +3:18 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:24
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:34 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 38:48 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:40:24
4 / 5 Seifeddine Selmi
TUN
+80 s
+66 s
G3 / G2
 36:28
35:42
 1:43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Seifeddine Selmi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 21:18
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:28 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:18 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:50 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 36:28 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:43:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 73.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Siefeldeen Ismail
EGY
+81 s
+67 s
G3 / G2
 37:52
35:02
 1:44:44
Show details
Prediction details: Siefeldeen Ismail

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 21:19
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 69.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:02 (3:30 / km)
Error: +2:50 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:50 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:44:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 75.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 Remy Gerard
MRI
+242 s
+180 s
G3 / G3
correct 		39:42
36:25
 1:46:34
Show details
Prediction details: Remy Gerard

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +242 s
Time: 24:00
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: 62.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 92.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:25 (3:39 / km)
Error: +3:17 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:00 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:50 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:46:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 236.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Mohamed-Samy Agab
ALG
+150 s
+195 s
G3 / G4
 41:17
41:29
 1:48:09
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed-Samy Agab

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 22:28
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +195 s
Fehler: -44.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -2.40 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 69.0 s
Gap behind: 92.2 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:29 (4:09 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:09
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:28 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:50 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:48:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 144.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Youssef Khamis
EGY
+0 s
+448 s
G1 / G5
 1:13:32
36:44
 2:15:08
Show details
Prediction details: Youssef Khamis

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +448 s
Fehler: -448.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:13:32 (7:21 / km)
Historical basis: 7:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:44 (3:40 / km)
Error: +36:48 / +3:41 / km
Overall prediction: 2:15:08
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:34 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 1:13:32 (7:21 / km)
Total: 2:15:08
0 / 1 Merwann Abassi
MAR
+0 s
+72 s
G0 / G1
33:54
Show details
Prediction details: Merwann Abassi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.