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U23 Women

19.04.2024 Hurghada EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Africa Triathlon Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 37/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.7
Mean swim error62.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.84 km/h
Correct bike groups1/3
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Details
1 / 2 Rahma Ahmed
EGY
+91 s
+158 s
G1 / G2
 47:19
43:17
 2:01:14
Show details
Prediction details: Rahma Ahmed

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 22:52
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +158 s
Fehler: -67.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.7 s
Gap behind: 117.4 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:19 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:17 (4:20 / km)
Error: +4:02 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 2:01:14
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 22:52 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:24 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 47:19 (4:44 / km)
Total: 2:01:14
2 / 1 Andie Kuipers
ZIM
+63 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		48:08
45:34
 2:02:03
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Kuipers

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 22:24
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 63.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 27.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:08 (4:49 / km)
Historical basis: 4:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:34 (4:33 / km)
Error: +2:34 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:24 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:24 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 48:08 (4:49 / km)
Total: 2:02:03
3 / 3 Lilly Hatem
EGY
+208 s
+151 s
G2 / G3
 52:40
49:55
 2:27:38
Show details
Prediction details: Lilly Hatem

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +208 s
Time: 24:49
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +151 s
Fehler: 57.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 117.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:40 (5:16 / km)
Historical basis: 5:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:55 (5:00 / km)
Error: +2:45 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 2:27:38
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:49 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:29 (26.2 km/h)
Run: 52:40 (5:16 / km)
Total: 2:27:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 22:28
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 141.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.