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Elite Women

17.02.2024 Troutbeck ZIM
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Africa Triathlon Cup Troutbeck

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.02.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 63/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 85.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.4
Mean swim error18.7 s
Mean bike-speed error6.80 km/h
Correct bike groups2/7
No history0
Within the 80% range71.4 %
Details
1 / 4 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+17 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 19:30
21:48
 52:50
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:48 (4:22 / km)
Error: −2:18 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 52:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:03 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:50
2 / 3 Antoanela Manac
ROU
+41 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 18:07
21:19
 53:56
Show details
Prediction details: Antoanela Manac

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.1 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Error: −3:12 / −0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 53:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:54 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 53:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Marit Van Den Berg
NED
+55 s
+32 s
G3 / G2
 18:12
20:11
 54:01
Show details
Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.83 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: −1:59 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 54:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:54 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Total: 54:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Elizabeth Carr
IRL
+31 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 19:54
19:31
 54:48
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Carr

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 22.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 10.1 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 54:48
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:24 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Total: 54:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Kahina Mebarki
ALG
+60 s
+55 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:28
22:28
 55:10
Show details
Prediction details: Kahina Mebarki

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 14.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 25.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Error: −4:00 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 55:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:28 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Total: 55:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 38.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Andie Kuipers
ZIM
+74 s
+52 s
G4 / G3
 20:46
22:26
 57:28
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Kuipers

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 22.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.6 s
Gap behind: 75.5 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (4:29 / km)
Error: −1:40 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 57:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:28 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Total: 57:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 53.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie
KEN
+150 s
+183 s
G5 / G5
correct 		26:16
30:31
 1:09:09
Show details
Prediction details: Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 12:28
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +183 s
Fehler: -33.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 75.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 24.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:16 (5:15 / km)
Historical basis: 5:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:31 (6:06 / km)
Error: −4:15 / −0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:23 (30.2 km/h)
Run: 26:16 (5:15 / km)
Total: 1:09:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 128.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.