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Elite Men

17.03.2024 Bridgetown BAR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Barbados

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.03.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 63/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 86.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 86.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error18.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.53 km/h
Correct bike groups8/21
No history1
Within the 80% range36.4 %
Details
1 / 2 Matthew Wright
BAR
+16 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:57
16:30
 42:57
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Wright

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:33 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 42:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:57
2 / 12 Luke Anthony
USA
+54 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 14:45
18:47
 43:27
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Anthony

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 37.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: −4:02 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 43:27
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Reese Vannerson
USA
+46 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 14:54
15:49
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 29.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Nicholas Holmes
USA
+55 s
+30 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:04
15:45
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 31 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+20 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 15:47
20:13
 43:47
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km)
Error: −4:26 / −0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 43:47
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:47
6 / 6 Andrew Shellenberger
USA
+15 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
17:04
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Shellenberger

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:01
7 / 10 Blake Harris
CAN
+60 s
+26 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:36
17:23
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 33.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 11.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 35.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 16 Adoh Doherty
LBN
+58 s
+28 s
G3 / G4
 15:55
17:57
 44:37
Show details
Prediction details: Adoh Doherty

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 30.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:02 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 44:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7 Matthew McGoey
USA
+45 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 16:03
17:18
 44:45
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew McGoey

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 44:45
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9 Xoel Rodriguez Abad
ESP
+54 s
+19 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:09
16:58
 44:51
Show details
Prediction details: Xoel Rodriguez Abad

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 34.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:51
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 19 Vladyslav Lyesin
CAN
+40 s
+55 s
G3 / G6
 16:11
18:16
 44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Vladyslav Lyesin

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -14.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: −2:05 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 44:53
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Keller Norland
USA
+52 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 16:16
19:08
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 35.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: −2:52 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 32.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Brodie Marshall
CAN
+11 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:01
19:31
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Brodie Marshall

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: −2:30 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:01
14 / 5 Blake Bullard
USA
+31 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 17:02
16:53
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:29 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 20 Louis Marchand
CAN
+36 s
+33 s
G3 / G7
 16:44
17:53
 45:26
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Marchand

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 45:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 Brett Saunders
CAN
+10 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:11
18:22
 46:11
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -1.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:11
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:11
17 / 4 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+74 s
+63 s
G4 / G1
 15:54
16:37
 47:18
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 26.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:18
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:10 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 47:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 39.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Connor Oats
USA
+101 s
+88 s
G5 / G7
 16:36
17:08
 49:26
Show details
Prediction details: Connor Oats

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:26
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Total: 49:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 77 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21 Joshua Malenchak
CAN
+71 s
+84 s
G4 / G7
 18:33
18:21
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Malenchak

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.7 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.25 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:10 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 47.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+58 s
+33 s
G3 / G3
correct
16:40
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 24.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Joshua Bird
CAN
+24 s
+17 s
G2 / G5
17:55
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Bird

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 7.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:29 (43.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Fynn Armstrong
BAR
+0 s
+81 s
G0 / G7
21:02
Show details
Prediction details: Fynn Armstrong

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (4:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.