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Elite Women

17.03.2024 Bridgetown BAR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Barbados

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.03.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 70.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.9
Mean swim error61.2 s
Mean bike-speed error2.82 km/h
Correct bike groups2/9
No history1
Within the 80% range30.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Lisa Perterer
AUT
+88 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 17:08
18:19
 50:21
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Perterer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 86.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.0 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 50:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 65.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Leslie Amat Alvarez
CUB
+48 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 18:14
18:40
 51:27
Show details
Prediction details: Leslie Amat Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 8:08
Pace: 1:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 48.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:08 (1:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Isla Britton
CAN
+95 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 18:44
18:49
 51:57
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Britton

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 91.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 71.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Lydia Russell
USA
+105 s
+1 s
G3 / G2
 18:13
18:45
 52:30
Show details
Prediction details: Lydia Russell

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 104.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:29 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 52:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 82.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+48 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:27
20:08
 52:40
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 8:08
Pace: 1:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 43.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:08 (1:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Juliette Chenail-Lafond
CAN
+58 s
+7 s
G2 / G3
 20:11
24:11
 53:24
Show details
Prediction details: Juliette Chenail-Lafond

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 8:18
Pace: 1:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 51.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 16.7 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:11 (4:50 / km)
Error: −4:00 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 53:24
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:18 (1:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Total: 53:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:40
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
About 37.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Shelby Lajeunesse
CAN
+108 s
+5 s
G3 / G3
correct 		23:24
22:23
 57:41
Show details
Prediction details: Shelby Lajeunesse

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 102.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:24 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 57:41
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:29 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 23:24 (4:41 / km)
Total: 57:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 84.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Laurin Thorne
CAN
+19 s
+14 s
G1 / G3
20:52
Show details
Prediction details: Laurin Thorne

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 7:39
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 5.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 28.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:39 (1:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Carla Larrabeiti Jefferson
PER
+75 s
+57 s
G2 / G4
20:14
Show details
Prediction details: Carla Larrabeiti Jefferson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 8:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 18.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.7 s
Gap behind: 13.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:14 (4:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:43
Pace: 1:02 / 100 m
About 52.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Nina James
GRN
+0 s
+35 s
G0 / G5
23:02
Show details
Prediction details: Nina James

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:20
Pace: 0:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:02 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:20 (0:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.