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Elite Men

05.05.2024 Calima COL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Calima

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.05.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 72.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 81.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.2
Mean swim error18.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.08 km/h
Correct bike groups7/30
No history3
Within the 80% range51.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 15 Aurél Sinkó-Uribe
COL
+13 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 16:19
16:52
 44:42
Show details
Prediction details: Aurél Sinkó-Uribe

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:42
2 / 5 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero
COL
+26 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:47
15:29
 44:49
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6 Reese Vannerson
USA
+34 s
+5 s
G3 / G2
 15:13
15:26
 44:54
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 28.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 15.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+26 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:01
15:14
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 26.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.60 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate
COL
+45 s
+10 s
G3 / G2
 15:47
15:17
 45:28
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 35.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 45:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 12 Ryoya Tamazaki
JPN
+43 s
+38 s
G3 / G2
 15:51
16:08
 45:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ryoya Tamazaki

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.25 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Total: 45:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 13 Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez
MEX
+34 s
+37 s
G3 / G2
 16:10
16:24
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Juan Giraldo Gomez
COL
+60 s
+38 s
G4 / G2
 14:27
15:40
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Giraldo Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:27 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.56 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 14:27 (2:53 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Nicolas Gomez
COL
+38 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 16:14
15:38
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Blake Harris
CAN
+43 s
+20 s
G3 / G2
 16:15
15:57
 45:56
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 22.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+41 s
+47 s
G3 / G2
 16:27
16:05
 46:08
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -6.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Total: 46:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 2 Keller Norland
USA
+40 s
+16 s
G3 / G2
 16:34
15:00
 46:15
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–25
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 46:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Thomas Castañeda Maldonado
ARG
+36 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 16:37
16:44
 46:18
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–24
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 17.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 24 Esteban Tibocha
COL
+43 s
+31 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:46
18:54
 46:27
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–24
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 46:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 26 Arturo Guzmán Medina
COL
+47 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:00
20:06
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Guzmán Medina

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Error: −3:06 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 46:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18 Brett Saunders
CAN
+14 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 18:18
17:24
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 11.4 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 46:41
17 / 16 Joshua Bird
CAN
+25 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:43
17:06
 46:45
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Bird

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:45
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 46:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Marco Alejandro Santoyo
COL
+42 s
+48 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:14
17:15
 46:55
Show details
Prediction details: Marco Alejandro Santoyo

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:55
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22 Jeisson Leonardo Fierro Calderon
COL
+61 s
+36 s
G4 / G3
 15:56
17:45
 47:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jeisson Leonardo Fierro Calderon

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 25.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:49 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 47:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Total: 47:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+58 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 16:01
16:07
 47:29
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:29
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 47:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 1 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+61 s
+52 s
G4 / G1
 16:04
15:37
 47:32
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 8–23
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 47:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 28 Nicolas Patarroyo
COL
+38 s
+38 s
G3 / G6
 18:42
17:43
 48:23
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Patarroyo

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 24–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:23
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Total: 48:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 19 Hernando Serna Cordoba
COL
+67 s
+33 s
G4 / G3
 17:16
17:07
 48:44
Show details
Prediction details: Hernando Serna Cordoba

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 13–28
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 33.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 28.6 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 49 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 27 Thomas Cano Guzman
COL
+64 s
+91 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:04
18:43
 49:32
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Cano Guzman

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 25–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -27.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:32
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 46 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 33 Santiago Cano Ocampo
COL
+40 s
+45 s
G3 / G9
 20:12
19:04
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Cano Ocampo

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 27–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Total: 49:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 21 Sebastián Andrés Gómez Palta
COL
+96 s
+57 s
G5 / G3
 17:23
17:23
 51:18
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastián Andrés Gómez Palta

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 28–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 38.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.6 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:18
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:12 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 51:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 77.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 31 Ricardo Andres Mosquera
COL
+103 s
+140 s
G5 / G7
 17:33
18:59
 51:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Andres Mosquera

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 29–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +140 s
Fehler: -37.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:28
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:12 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 51:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 84.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Michael Simard
CAN
+39 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
15:46
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Simard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 24.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Camilo Humberto Estupiñan Bohorquez
COL
+58 s
+55 s
G4 / G3
18:12
Show details
Prediction details: Camilo Humberto Estupiñan Bohorquez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 3.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Alejandro Guzmán Medina
COL
+0 s
+79 s
G1 / G3
18:39
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Guzmán Medina

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -79.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 13.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (42.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 29 Josue Leonardo Martinez Navas
COL
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G5
18:14
Show details
Prediction details: Josue Leonardo Martinez Navas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Jacobo Sánchez Cano
COL
+0 s
+61 s
G0 / G5
18:40
Show details
Prediction details: Jacobo Sánchez Cano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 32–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 32 Kevin Perez
COL
+0 s
+142 s
G0 / G8
19:46
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Perez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +142 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.