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Elite Men

25.02.2024 La Habana CUB
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup La Habana

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.02.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.9
Mean swim error22.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.18 km/h
Correct bike groups12/23
No history0
Within the 80% range43.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Darr Smith
USA
+32 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		30:37
31:23
 1:28:49
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 18:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 31.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:28:49
2 / 1 James Edgar
IRL
+29 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:35
31:08
 1:29:47
Show details
Prediction details: James Edgar

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 17:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 21.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:08 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:29:47
3 / 3 Michał Oliwa
POL
+24 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:40
31:26
 1:30:52
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 15.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:40 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:26 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:14 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 32:40 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:30:52
4 / 8 Ryan Luczak
USA
+58 s
+60 s
G3 / G2
 31:41
31:17
 1:31:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Luczak

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -2.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:41 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:26
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 31:41 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:31:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Marcin Stanglewicz
POL
+77 s
+77 s
G3 / G2
 32:23
32:03
 1:32:08
Show details
Prediction details: Marcin Stanglewicz

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:23 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:03 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 32:23 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:32:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 14 Blake Harris
CAN
+91 s
+63 s
G3 / G2
 32:41
32:54
 1:32:26
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 27.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:41 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 32:41 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:32:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 52.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5 Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos
VEN
+30 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:25
33:20
 1:32:37
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 17:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:32:37
8 / 9 Felix Duchampt
ROU
+51 s
+46 s
G3 / G2
 33:07
31:32
 1:32:52
Show details
Prediction details: Felix Duchampt

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 18:19
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:19 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:32:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Alvaro Campos Solano
CRC
+35 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 35:10
31:37
 1:33:22
Show details
Prediction details: Alvaro Campos Solano

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:10 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Error: +3:33 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 35:10 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:33:22
10 / 17 Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa
ECU
+45 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:44
34:19
 1:33:23
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:13
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:13 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:53 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:33:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 6 Gabriel Terán Carvajal
ECU
+34 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:50
33:21
 1:34:02
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:21 (3:20 / km)
Error: +2:29 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:34:02
12 / 16 Brodie Marshall
CAN
+11 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:51
36:20
 1:34:03
Show details
Prediction details: Brodie Marshall

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–21
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 17:39
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:20 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:39 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:34:03
13 / 20 Alejandro Rodriguez Diez
CUB
+92 s
+74 s
G3 / G2
 34:41
36:33
 1:34:26
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Rodriguez Diez

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:33 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:34:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 53.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 13 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+74 s
+74 s
G3 / G2
 34:46
32:35
 1:34:31
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:46 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:35 (3:16 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 34:46 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:34:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 35.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Hokuto Obara
JPN
+46 s
+75 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:09
33:27
 1:34:48
Show details
Prediction details: Hokuto Obara

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 18:14
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -28.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:14 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:53 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:34:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 21 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+86 s
+88 s
G3 / G3
correct 		35:30
39:25
 1:35:15
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:25 (3:57 / km)
Error: −3:55 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:15
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:35:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 47.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 12 Brett Saunders
CAN
+18 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:15
34:50
 1:36:27
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 17:46
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:15 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:50 (3:29 / km)
Error: +3:25 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:27
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:46 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 38:15 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:36:27
18 / 4 Benedikt Bettin
GER
+34 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:04
32:07
 1:37:16
Show details
Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 23.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: +6:57 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:38 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Total: 1:37:16
19 / 23 Brad Murray
USA
+77 s
+76 s
G3 / G4
 38:15
36:49
 1:38:00
Show details
Prediction details: Brad Murray

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:15 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:49 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:26 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:00
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 38:15 (3:50 / km)
Total: 1:38:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 7 Keller Norland
USA
+65 s
+43 s
G3 / G2
 39:09
31:12
 1:38:54
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 18:33
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 9.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:09 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:12 (3:07 / km)
Error: +7:57 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:33 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 39:09 (3:55 / km)
Total: 1:38:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 22 Dan Tomiuchi
JPN
+39 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		39:20
36:40
 1:38:59
Show details
Prediction details: Dan Tomiuchi

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 19–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 16.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Error: +2:40 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:53 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km)
Total: 1:38:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Oscar Daniel Quiroz Abrego
MEX
+280 s
+74 s
G4 / G2
 36:09
34:51
 1:47:48
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Daniel Quiroz Abrego

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +280 s
Time: 22:08
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 206.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.98 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 186.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:09 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:48
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 22:08 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 36:09 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:47:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 242 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Dillon Longo
CAN
+94 s
+72 s
G3 / G2
35:36
Show details
Prediction details: Dillon Longo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 21.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 186.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 55.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.