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Elite Women

25.02.2024 La Habana CUB
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup La Habana

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.02.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 60/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.2
Mean swim error27.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.14 km/h
Correct bike groups10/20
No history0
Within the 80% range70.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+23 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:05
34:08
 1:39:54
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 20:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:08 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 34:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:39:54
2 / 2 Roksana Slupek
POL
+28 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:54
34:25
 1:40:43
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Slupek

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 20:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 25.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:40:43
3 / 18 Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior
VEN
+23 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:18
38:52
 1:43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 20:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:18 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:52 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 37:18 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:43:07
4 / 5 Sinem Francisca Tous Servera
TUR
+50 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 36:46
34:53
 1:43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sinem Francisca Tous Servera

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 46.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:46 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:53 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 36:46 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:43:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Ivana Kuriackova
SVK
+46 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 36:59
34:49
 1:43:21
Show details
Prediction details: Ivana Kuriackova

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 20:26
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 46.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:59 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Error: +2:10 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:26 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 36:59 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:43:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Romina Biagioli
ARG
+18 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:04
35:01
 1:43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Romina Biagioli

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Error: +3:03 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:43:53
7 / 10 Leslie Amat Alvarez
CUB
+19 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:12
36:36
 1:44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Leslie Amat Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 19:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:12 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:36 (3:40 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 38:12 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:44:01
8 / 13 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+27 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:40
37:23
 1:44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 20:07
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:40 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:07 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 38:40 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:44:29
9 / 11 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+50 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 38:20
37:08
 1:44:42
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 39.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km)
Total: 1:44:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 15 Naomi Ruff
USA
+28 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:20
37:41
 1:45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 20:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 20.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:41 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:39 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:09
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km)
Total: 1:45:09
11 / 17 Juri Ide
JPN
+51 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 38:50
38:23
 1:45:12
Show details
Prediction details: Juri Ide

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 20:31
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 46.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:50 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:23 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:31 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 38:50 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:45:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 3 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+39 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 39:00
34:38
 1:45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 20:19
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 30.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:00 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:38 (3:28 / km)
Error: +4:22 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:19 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 39:00 (3:54 / km)
Total: 1:45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Catalina Torres Espinoza
CRC
+35 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 39:30
37:56
 1:45:52
Show details
Prediction details: Catalina Torres Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–20
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 20:15
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:30 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:56 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:52
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:15 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 39:30 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:45:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Raquel Solis
CRC
+18 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		40:08
37:06
 1:45:57
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:08 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:06 (3:43 / km)
Error: +3:02 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 40:08 (4:01 / km)
Total: 1:45:57
15 / 14 Heidi Juránková
CZE
+48 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 39:36
37:27
 1:45:58
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Juránková

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 20:28
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 32.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:36 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:09 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 39:36 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:45:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 8 Colette Reimer
CAN
+44 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 39:58
35:39
 1:46:20
Show details
Prediction details: Colette Reimer

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:39 (3:34 / km)
Error: +4:19 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:31 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:46:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
17 / 19 Isabel Rodriguez Silverio
CUB
+16 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		40:42
39:27
 1:46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Rodriguez Silverio

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:42 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:27 (3:57 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:31
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:56 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 40:42 (4:04 / km)
Total: 1:46:31
18 / 7 Elizabeth Carr
IRL
+59 s
+16 s
G3 / G1
 34:00
35:30
 1:50:43
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Carr

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 42.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 18.5 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:43
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 20:39 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:26 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:50:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 28.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Niuska Figueredo Bringa
CUB
+77 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 39:11
41:45
 1:55:54
Show details
Prediction details: Niuska Figueredo Bringa

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 20:57
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 60.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:11 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:45 (4:11 / km)
Error: −2:34 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:55:54
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:57 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:26 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 39:11 (3:55 / km)
Total: 1:55:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:35
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Mary Hnatyshyn
CAN
+30 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct
36:08
Show details
Prediction details: Mary Hnatyshyn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:19 (36.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable