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Elite Women

17.11.2024 Manta ECU
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Manta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 77.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error17.1 s
Mean bike-speed error4.19 km/h
Correct bike groups6/8
No history1
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Details
1 / 1 Elizabeth Bravo
ECU
+28 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:16
17:41
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.4 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 51:15
2 / 2 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+31 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:36
17:40
 51:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 31.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 51:35
3 / 5 Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños
GUA
+31 s
+46 s
G1 / G2
 18:17
21:01
 52:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -15.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (4:12 / km)
Error: −2:44 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 52:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Total: 52:16
4 / 3 Paula Jara
ECU
+34 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:54
18:53
 52:53
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Jara

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 52:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:53
5 / 4 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+14 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:38
21:56
 53:37
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (4:23 / km)
Error: −2:18 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 53:37
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Total: 53:37
6 / 9 Andrea Keylha Morales Díaz
GUA
+20 s
+67 s
G1 / G3
 21:13
26:09
 55:12
Show details
Prediction details: Andrea Keylha Morales Díaz

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -47.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.4 s
Gap behind: 8.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:09 (5:14 / km)
Error: −4:56 / −0:59 / km
Overall prediction: 55:12
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Total: 55:12
7 / 8 Melanie Agreda Herrera
ECU
+43 s
+52 s
G2 / G2
correct 		10:11
23:08
 55:31
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Agreda Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 8.4 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:11 (2:02 / km)
Historical basis: 2:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:08 (4:38 / km)
Error: −12:57 / −2:35 / km
Overall prediction: 55:31
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:28 (26.9 km/h)
Run: 10:11 (2:02 / km)
Total: 55:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Miriam López Arenazas
MEX
+52 s
+41 s
G2 / G2
correct
22:27
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam López Arenazas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.60 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:27 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:28 (26.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Daniela Valentina Lincango Guanamarca
ECU
+0 s
+56 s
G0 / G2
22:52
Show details
Prediction details: Daniela Valentina Lincango Guanamarca

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:52 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.