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Elite Men

14.04.2024 Salinas ECU
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Salinas

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 90.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.3
Mean swim error22.7 s
Mean bike-speed error2.06 km/h
Correct bike groups6/21
No history1
Within the 80% range63.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Pavlos Antoniades
CAN
+48 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 14:46
15:01
 43:43
Show details
Prediction details: Pavlos Antoniades

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 39.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 8 Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz
CHI
+27 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 14:58
16:04
 43:55
Show details
Prediction details: Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 21.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 43:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Ryan Luczak
USA
+20 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:08
15:19
 44:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Luczak

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:05
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 18 Luke Anthony
USA
+43 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 15:21
18:08
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Anthony

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–18
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: −2:47 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7 Ramón Armando Matute
ECU
+7 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 15:45
15:48
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: Ramón Armando Matute

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:19 (42.2 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:20
6 / 5 Gabriel Terán Carvajal
ECU
+28 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 15:30
15:31
 44:27
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–17
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+41 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:32
15:28
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 25.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 11.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero
COL
+28 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 15:45
16:38
 44:42
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 8.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 15 Matias Sebastian Bravo Delgado
ECU
+46 s
+32 s
G2 / G4
 15:58
15:33
 44:55
Show details
Prediction details: Matias Sebastian Bravo Delgado

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13 Andrew Shellenberger
USA
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:23
16:50
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Shellenberger

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:19 (42.2 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:58
11 / 9 Blake Harris
CAN
+53 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 16:09
16:14
 45:08
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 48.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+40 s
+32 s
G2 / G3
 16:24
16:33
 45:21
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.60 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa
ECU
+37 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 16:28
15:49
 45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 29.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -1.44 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 19 Joaquin Solis Narvaez
ECU
+27 s
+13 s
G2 / G5
 16:35
16:34
 45:32
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquin Solis Narvaez

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 10 Aurél Sinkó-Uribe
COL
+23 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:39
16:17
 45:36
Show details
Prediction details: Aurél Sinkó-Uribe

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 David Vega Campoverde
ECU
+37 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:52
16:26
 45:49
Show details
Prediction details: David Vega Campoverde

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 30.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:49
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 14 Arturo Guzmán Medina
COL
+48 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:01
16:51
 45:58
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Guzmán Medina

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 2 Keller Norland
USA
+49 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:04
15:19
 46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 39.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 46:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Total: 46:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Cesar Xavier Criollo Matute
ECU
+39 s
+40 s
G2 / G5
 17:34
18:42
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Cesar Xavier Criollo Matute

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Rodrigo Pacheco Gajá
MEX
+70 s
+33 s
G4 / G4
correct 		15:52
16:01
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Pacheco Gajá

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 36.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:29 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 21 Gabriel Joaquin Quito Tello
ECU
+59 s
+48 s
G4 / G6
 16:14
18:46
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Joaquin Quito Tello

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 11.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: −2:32 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:29 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 48:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 47.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Martin Eduardo Castro Bravo
ECU
+0 s
+137 s
G0 / G7
19:31
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Eduardo Castro Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +137 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.