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PTVI Women

08.03.2024 Miami USA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Miami

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.03.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.7
Mean swim error86.1 s
Mean bike-speed error6.04 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history2
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Leticia Freitas B1
BRA
+120 s
+32 s
G1 / G2
 24:08
22:13
 59:16
Show details
Prediction details: Leticia Freitas B1

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +120 s
Time: 15:10
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 87.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 40.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:08 (4:50 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:13 (4:27 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 59:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:10 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (32.8 km/h)
Run: 24:08 (4:50 / km)
Total: 59:16
2 / 3 Deborah Chucoski B3
USA
+161 s
+154 s
G2 / G3
 23:55
24:33
 59:59
Show details
Prediction details: Deborah Chucoski B3

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +161 s
Time: 15:51
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +154 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 40.7 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:33 (4:55 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 59:59
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:51 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Total: 59:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:28
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
About 22.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +137.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 McClain Hermes B1
USA
+164 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 24:33
26:18
 1:00:37
Show details
Prediction details: McClain Hermes B1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +164 s
Time: 15:54
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 164.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:33 (4:55 / km)
Historical basis: 4:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:18 (5:16 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:37
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:54 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 24:33 (4:55 / km)
Total: 1:00:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:14
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
About 40.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +123.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Taylor Talbot B2
USA
+0 s
+150 s
G0 / G4
23:11
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Talbot B2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:10
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:11 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:10 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Anabel Moro B3
ARG
+0 s
+223 s
G0 / G5
27:19
Show details
Prediction details: Anabel Moro B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:10
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +223 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:19 (5:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:10 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.