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PTWC Women

08.03.2024 Miami USA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Miami

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.03.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 57.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.8
Mean swim error37.5 s
Mean bike-speed error5.19 km/h
Correct bike groups2/5
No history2
Within the 80% range71.4 %
Details
1 / 1 Leanne Taylor H1
CAN
+85 s
+96 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:34
13:19
 55:20
Show details
Prediction details: Leanne Taylor H1

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 14:34
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 72.0 s
Gap behind: 12.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:19 (2:40 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 55:20
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:34 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:07 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Total: 55:20
2 / 2 Jessica Ferreira H1
BRA
+99 s
+142 s
G1 / G4
 14:39
12:35
 55:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Ferreira H1

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +99 s
Time: 14:48
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +142 s
Fehler: -42.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 125.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:35 (2:31 / km)
Error: +2:04 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 55:25
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:48 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:07 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Total: 55:25
3 / 4 Brenda Osnaya Alvarez H1
MEX
+98 s
+91 s
G1 / G3
 15:00
13:49
 55:46
Show details
Prediction details: Brenda Osnaya Alvarez H1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 14:47
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:49 (2:46 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 55:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:47 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:07 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 55:46
4 / 5 Skyler Fisher H2
USA
+13 s
+0 s
G1 / G5
 15:31
14:29
 56:17
Show details
Prediction details: Skyler Fisher H2

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 13:22
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 72.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 56:17
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:22 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:07 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 56:17
5 / 3 Emelia Perry H1
USA
+224 s
+110 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:09
13:36
 59:41
Show details
Prediction details: Emelia Perry H1

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +224 s
Time: 16:53
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: 114.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 125.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:36 (2:43 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 59:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:53 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:48 (26.6 km/h)
Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Total: 59:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Emily Sweeney H2
USA
+0 s
+133 s
G0 / G6
17:45
Show details
Prediction details: Emily Sweeney H2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Jacie King H2
USA
+0 s
+127 s
G0 / G7
16:27
Show details
Prediction details: Jacie King H2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +127 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.