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Elite Men

25.05.2024 Burabay KAZ
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Asia Triathlon Central Championships Burabay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.05.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.7
Mean swim error15.8 s
Mean bike-speed error1.04 km/h
Correct bike groups8/12
No history1
Within the 80% range61.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Aleksandr Kurishov
UZB
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 33:55
34:39
 1:32:37
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksandr Kurishov

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:55 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:28 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 33:55 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:32:37
2 / 5 Ayan Beisenbayev
KAZ
+23 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:47
35:58
 1:32:43
Show details
Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:47 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −3:11 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:29 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 32:47 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:32:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Arlan Zhanabay
KAZ
+27 s
+32 s
G2 / G3
 33:03
33:51
 1:32:59
Show details
Prediction details: Arlan Zhanabay

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -5.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.42 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 25.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:03 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 2.18 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:59
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:29 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 33:03 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:32:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Daryn Konysbayev
KAZ
+52 s
+36 s
G3 / G3
correct 		33:00
32:12
 1:33:36
Show details
Prediction details: Daryn Konysbayev

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:00 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:12 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 33:00 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:33:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Alexandr Ten
KAZ
+53 s
+39 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:43
32:56
 1:35:19
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandr Ten

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:56 (3:18 / km)
Error: +1:47 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:19
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Kamran Khodjaev
UZB
+57 s
+35 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:38
35:28
 1:37:14
Show details
Prediction details: Kamran Khodjaev

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:37:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 39.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 Arslon Tursunov
UZB
+59 s
+47 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:40
43:55
 1:37:16
Show details
Prediction details: Arslon Tursunov

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:55 (4:24 / km)
Error: −7:15 / −0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:37:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Maxim Shmulich
KAZ
+22 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 37:28
37:58
 1:37:24
Show details
Prediction details: Maxim Shmulich

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:29 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:37:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Meirlan Iskakov
KAZ
+24 s
+34 s
G2 / G3
 37:53
35:05
 1:37:49
Show details
Prediction details: Meirlan Iskakov

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:05 (3:31 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:29 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:37:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 4 Yegor Krupyakov
KAZ
+22 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:35
35:38
 1:38:31
Show details
Prediction details: Yegor Krupyakov

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 17.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:35 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Error: +2:57 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:31
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:29 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 38:35 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:38:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Anuar Turubayev
KAZ
+85 s
+41 s
G4 / G4
correct 		35:44
35:16
 1:41:20
Show details
Prediction details: Anuar Turubayev

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 44.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -2.23 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:44 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:16 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:20
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:11 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 35:44 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:41:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 67.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Danil Porodnov
KAZ
+65 s
+40 s
G4 / G4
correct 		37:33
41:04
 1:43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Danil Porodnov

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 24.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 20.6 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:04 (4:06 / km)
Error: −3:31 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:09
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:11 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:43:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 46.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Abulhair Tirzhanov
KAZ
+0 s
+88 s
G0 / G5
38:41
Show details
Prediction details: Abulhair Tirzhanov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:41 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.