Prediction comparison

Elite Women

28.09.2024 Turkestan KAZ

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Asia Triathlon Cup Turkestan

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.6

Mean swim error51.7 s

Mean bike-speed error2.16 km/h

Correct bike groups0/5

No history0

Within the 80% range40.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Lara Thekla Ungewickell GER	+22 s +0 s	G1 / G2	44:22 43:44	1:47:53	Show details Prediction details: Lara Thekla Ungewickell Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 20:22 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 38.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 31.0 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.02 km/h Running and total Run: 44:22 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:44 (4:22 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:47:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:22 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:09 (38.0 km/h) Run: 44:22 (4:26 / km) Total: 1:47:53
2 / 2	Sophie Gießmann GER	+53 s +1 s	G2 / G1	43:09 42:59	1:48:02	Show details Prediction details: Sophie Gießmann Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 20:53 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 52.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Gap ahead: 31.0 s Gap behind: 22.7 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h Running and total Run: 43:09 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:19 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:59 (4:18 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:02 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:53 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:00 (37.5 km/h) Run: 43:09 (4:19 / km) Total: 1:48:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:26 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 27.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1	Alina Khakimova UZB	+76 s +2 s	G3 / G1	40:15 42:19	1:48:41	Show details Prediction details: Alina Khakimova Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 21:16 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 73.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Gap ahead: 22.7 s Gap behind: 32.4 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h Running and total Run: 40:15 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:19 (4:14 / km) Error: −2:04 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:16 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:10 (35.7 km/h) Run: 40:15 (4:01 / km) Total: 1:48:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:26 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 49.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Nadezhda Bekmaganbetova KAZ	+108 s +4 s	G4 / G2	40:16 44:42	1:51:31	Show details Prediction details: Nadezhda Bekmaganbetova Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +108 s Time: 21:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 104.1 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Gap ahead: 32.4 s Gap behind: 50.7 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h Running and total Run: 40:16 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 44:42 (4:28 / km) Error: −4:26 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 1:51:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:48 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:27 (34.6 km/h) Run: 40:16 (4:02 / km) Total: 1:51:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:26 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 82.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3	Louisa Marie Middleditch SGP	+159 s +152 s	G5 / G2	39:26 41:49	1:54:54	Show details Prediction details: Louisa Marie Middleditch Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +159 s Time: 22:39 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +152 s Fehler: 6.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Gap ahead: 50.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 34.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.22 km/h Running and total Run: 39:26 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:49 (4:11 / km) Error: −2:23 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:54:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:39 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:49 (33.0 km/h) Run: 39:26 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:54:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:26 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 132.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total