Prediction comparison

Elite Women

14.09.2024 Wuhan CHN

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Asia Triathlon Cup Wuhan

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean swim error24.3 s

Mean bike-speed error1.48 km/h

Correct bike groups7/22

No history4

Within the 80% range34.6 %

						Details
1 / 6	Siyi Zhang CHN	+27 s +17 s	G1 / G2	17:11 18:58	48:17	Show details Prediction details: Siyi Zhang Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 6 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 9.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km) Error: −1:47 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 48:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Total: 48:17
2 / 2	Yifan Yang CHN	+13 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:24 18:17	48:30	Show details Prediction details: Yifan Yang Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.41 km/h Running and total Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 48:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Total: 48:30
3 / 1	Xinyu Lin CHN	+26 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:14 17:48	49:20	Show details Prediction details: Xinyu Lin Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 94 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 22.4 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 66 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.43 km/h Running and total Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 49:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Total: 49:20
4 / 3	Michelle Magnani USA	+16 s +27 s	G1 / G2	18:41 17:52	49:47	Show details Prediction details: Michelle Magnani Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -10.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 3.4 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 49:47 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: 49:47
5 / 5	Wen Wei CHN	+12 s +4 s	G1 / G2	18:51 18:59	49:57	Show details Prediction details: Wen Wei Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 58 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 49:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km) Total: 49:57
6 / 4	Yuan Yuan CHN	+3 s +0 s	G1 / G2	19:19 18:53	50:25	Show details Prediction details: Yuan Yuan Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h Running and total Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 50:25 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Total: 50:25
7 / 9	Minori Ikeno JPN	+5 s +7 s	G1 / G2	19:33 20:12	50:39	Show details Prediction details: Minori Ikeno Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 3–12 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 9 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 7.0 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h Running and total Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 50:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km) Total: 50:39
8 / 10	Xinying Yu CHN	+37 s +21 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:23 20:57	51:06	Show details Prediction details: Xinying Yu Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 4–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 16.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 53 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:57 (4:11 / km) Error: −2:34 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: 51:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h) Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Total: 51:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 7	Ji Yeon Kim KOR	+28 s +16 s	G1 / G2	20:14 19:27	51:20	Show details Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–14 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 7 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 11.6 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 8.3 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h Running and total Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 51:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Total: 51:20
10 / 15	Yan Yin Hilda Choi HKG	+36 s +43 s	G2 / G4	18:41 19:16	51:24	Show details Prediction details: Yan Yin Hilda Choi Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 3–14 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 15 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -7.1 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 72 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 64 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 51:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h) Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: 51:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
11 / 11	Olivia Cummings NZL	+37 s +39 s	G2 / G3	18:49 19:19	51:32	Show details Prediction details: Olivia Cummings Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 5–14 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 11 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -1.9 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h Running and total Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 51:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h) Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km) Total: 51:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
12 / 19	Ruyue Gao CHN	+20 s +37 s	G1 / G4	20:26 20:28	51:32	Show details Prediction details: Ruyue Gao Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 10–14 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 19 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 10:16 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -17.4 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.4 s Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.53 km/h Running and total Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 51:32 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.3 km/h) Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km) Total: 51:32
13 / 16	Gyuri Kim KOR	+46 s +59 s	G3 / G4	18:35 19:20	51:36	Show details Prediction details: Gyuri Kim Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 51 % Result: 16 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 10:42 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: -13.2 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 4.9 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 51:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.3 km/h) Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Total: 51:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 12	Taomeizi Ying CHN	+51 s +66 s	G3 / G4	18:48 19:05	51:49	Show details Prediction details: Taomeizi Ying Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 12 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -15.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.20 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.9 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h Running and total Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.86 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 51:49 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.3 km/h) Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Total: 51:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 18.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14	Ting-Yun Hu TPE	+43 s +16 s	G3 / G3 correct	21:13 19:37	54:14	Show details Prediction details: Ting-Yun Hu Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 13–19 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 14 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:39 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 26.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h Running and total Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 54:14 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.3 km/h) Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km) Total: 54:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
16 / 18	Kaiye Mai CHN	+71 s +63 s	G5 / G4	19:15 19:14	54:26	Show details Prediction details: Kaiye Mai Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 11:07 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: 7.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 8.1 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 54:26 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.5 km/h) Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Total: 54:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
17 / 23	Yu-Ting Pan TPE	+70 s +85 s	G5 / G5 correct	20:57 20:03	56:08	Show details Prediction details: Yu-Ting Pan Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 11:06 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: -14.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.9 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h Running and total Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:03 (4:01 / km) Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 56:08 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.5 km/h) Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km) Total: 56:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
18 / 22	Lai Ki Nicole Man HKG	+55 s +37 s	G4 / G4 correct	21:48 22:10	56:50	Show details Prediction details: Lai Ki Nicole Man Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 15–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:51 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 18.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 57 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 35.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 14.9 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h Running and total Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:26 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 56:50 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:06 (35.2 km/h) Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Total: 56:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
19 / 26	Wan Tung Wong HKG	+79 s +117 s	G5 / G6	22:16 23:04	57:27	Show details Prediction details: Wan Tung Wong Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 11:15 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -38.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.1 s Gap behind: 10.3 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 32.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.35 km/h Running and total Run: 22:16 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:04 (4:37 / km) Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 57:27 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:15 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.5 km/h) Run: 22:16 (4:27 / km) Total: 57:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
20 / 25	Anson Lun HKG	+89 s +119 s	G6 / G6 correct	20:16 21:34	58:19	Show details Prediction details: Anson Lun Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 11:25 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: -29.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.3 s Gap behind: 54.9 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 32.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h Running and total Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 58:19 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:34 (32.8 km/h) Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Total: 58:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
21 / 13	Ziqing Lu CHN	+144 s +12 s	G7 / G2	24:27 21:49	1:03:36	Show details Prediction details: Ziqing Lu Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +144 s Time: 12:20 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 132.2 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 54.9 s Gap behind: 34.7 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.68 km/h Running and total Run: 24:27 (4:53 / km) Historical basis: 5:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.29 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:36 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:20 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:44 (32.7 km/h) Run: 24:27 (4:53 / km) Total: 1:03:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
22 / 21	Yue Hao CHN	+179 s +61 s	G8 / G4	23:25 21:59	1:05:24	Show details Prediction details: Yue Hao Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +179 s Time: 12:55 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: 117.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 34.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.48 km/h Running and total Run: 23:25 (4:41 / km) Historical basis: 4:41 / km Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km) Error: +1:26 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:24 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:55 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:00 (30.8 km/h) Run: 23:25 (4:41 / km) Total: 1:05:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Ziye Liu CHN	+0 s +10 s	G0 / G2	19:52		Show details Prediction details: Ziye Liu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Zixuan Hao CHN	+0 s +25 s	G0 / G3	19:48		Show details Prediction details: Zixuan Hao Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Zihan Yan CHN	+0 s +36 s	G0 / G4	21:22		Show details Prediction details: Zihan Yan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (4:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Yanling Zhang CHN	+0 s +16 s	G0 / G4	23:48		Show details Prediction details: Yanling Zhang Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:48 (4:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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