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Elite Men

15.11.2024 Brasilia BRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 BRA Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.8
Mean swim error21.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.56 km/h
Correct bike groups4/9
No history1
Within the 80% range30.0 %
Details
1 / 6 Lucas Galdino
BRA
+21 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 15:06
17:22
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Galdino

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 45:24
2 / 8 Matheus Campos Correa
BRA
+22 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 15:49
18:13
 46:07
Show details
Prediction details: Matheus Campos Correa

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −2:24 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 46:07
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 46:07
3 / 3 Felipe Bianchi
BRA
+24 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 16:29
16:22
 46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Bianchi

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:47
4 / 4 Yago Alves
BRA
+17 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 17:02
16:57
 47:20
Show details
Prediction details: Yago Alves

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -1.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 47:20
5 / 2 Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki
BRA
+21 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:03
17:13
 47:21
Show details
Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:21
6 / 9 Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva
BRA
+30 s
+1 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:38
18:43
 47:42
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 29.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −3:05 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 47:42
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Total: 47:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10 Gustavo Henrique Wiebbeling
BRA
+24 s
+45 s
G1 / G2
 18:25
19:17
 48:43
Show details
Prediction details: Gustavo Henrique Wiebbeling

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -21.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:43
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:43
8 / 5 Caua Diniz
BRA
+34 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:15
17:19
 49:19
Show details
Prediction details: Caua Diniz

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 26.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 23.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:19
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 49:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7 Thiago Gomide Moreira
BRA
+57 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:29
17:40
 49:33
Show details
Prediction details: Thiago Gomide Moreira

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 53.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:33
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Total: 49:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 28.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Julio Monteiro Martins
BRA
+0 s
+5 s
G0 / G2
16:25
Show details
Prediction details: Julio Monteiro Martins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.