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Elite Women

16.11.2024 Zhaoqing CHN
Race information and calculation basis
2024 CHN Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 81.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.9
Mean swim error32.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.96 km/h
Correct bike groups4/11
No history0
Within the 80% range81.8 %
Details
1 / 1 Xinyu Lin
CHN
+28 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:24
35:47
 1:39:19
Show details
Prediction details: Xinyu Lin

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 24.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:47 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:39:19
2 / 2 Anqi Huang
CHN
+60 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:37
36:49
 1:40:02
Show details
Prediction details: Anqi Huang

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 20:56
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 52.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.0 s
Gap behind: 18.3 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:49 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:56 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:25 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:40:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:34
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Yifan Yang
CHN
+16 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:22
40:34
 1:41:17
Show details
Prediction details: Yifan Yang

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 20:12
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:22 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:34 (4:03 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:12 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 38:22 (3:50 / km)
Total: 1:41:17
4 / 4 Huiwen Jia
CHN
+24 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 39:18
39:56
 1:42:13
Show details
Prediction details: Huiwen Jia

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 20:20
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 20.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:18 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:56 (4:00 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:20 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 39:18 (3:56 / km)
Total: 1:42:13
5 / 9 Wen Wei
CHN
+9 s
+5 s
G1 / G3
 40:06
47:35
 1:43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Wen Wei

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 20:05
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:06 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:35 (4:46 / km)
Error: −7:29 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:05 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 40:06 (4:01 / km)
Total: 1:43:01
6 / 5 Yuan Yuan
CHN
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 40:19
41:54
 1:43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Yuan Yuan

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:54 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:35 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:14
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:56 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:43:14
7 / 7 Siqi Bian
CHN
+19 s
+7 s
G1 / G3
 41:18
43:19
 1:44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Siqi Bian

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 20:15
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:19 (4:20 / km)
Error: −2:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:13
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:15 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:27 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:44:13
8 / 6 Xinying Yu
CHN
+42 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		40:04
44:03
 1:44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Xinying Yu

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 20:38
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 38.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 18.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:04 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:03 (4:24 / km)
Error: −3:59 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:38 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:25 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 40:04 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:28
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Kaiye Mai
CHN
+87 s
+191 s
G3 / G5
 40:02
42:59
 1:51:49
Show details
Prediction details: Kaiye Mai

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 21:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +191 s
Fehler: -104.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:02 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:59 (4:18 / km)
Error: −2:57 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:49
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 21:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 40:02 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:51:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 82.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 8 Ziqing Lu
CHN
+79 s
+9 s
G3 / G4
 50:53
45:15
 2:02:40
Show details
Prediction details: Ziqing Lu

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 21:15
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 69.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:53 (5:05 / km)
Historical basis: 5:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:15 (4:32 / km)
Error: +5:38 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:40
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:15 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 50:53 (5:05 / km)
Total: 2:02:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 74.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Menghan Hao
CHN
+78 s
+88 s
G3 / G5
 54:03
50:02
 2:05:50
Show details
Prediction details: Menghan Hao

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 21:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:03 (5:24 / km)
Historical basis: 5:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:02 (5:00 / km)
Error: +4:01 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 2:05:50
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 21:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 54:03 (5:24 / km)
Total: 2:05:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 74.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.