Prediction comparison

25-29 Male AG

21.06.2024 Coimbra POR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.7

Mean swim error92.9 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

					Details
0 / 1	David Robertson GBR	+39 s +0 s	Bike DNF	17:08 16:44	Show details Prediction details: David Robertson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 15:26 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 39.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:26 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Robert Eveson GBR	+214 s +132 s	Bike DNF	18:33 16:52	Show details Prediction details: Robert Eveson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +214 s Time: 18:21 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: 82.1 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:22 / km) Error: +1:41 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 18:21 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Jamie Pullinger GBR	+164 s +180 s	Bike DNF	17:35 17:15	Show details Prediction details: Jamie Pullinger Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +164 s Time: 17:31 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +180 s Fehler: -16.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.70 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 17:31 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Danny Beck GBR	+509 s +113 s	Bike DNF	18:57	Show details Prediction details: Danny Beck Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +509 s Time: 23:16 Pace: 2:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +113 s Fehler: 396.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 23:16 (2:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Andy Jones GBR	+110 s +91 s	Bike DNF	20:31 19:14	Show details Prediction details: Andy Jones Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +110 s Time: 16:37 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: 19.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Error: +1:17 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 16:37 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Calum Gorman GBR	+0 s +128 s	Bike DNF	18:58	Show details Prediction details: Calum Gorman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:47 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:47 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Mark Todhunter GBR	+78 s +83 s	Bike DNF	21:33 21:32	Show details Prediction details: Mark Todhunter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +78 s Time: 16:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +83 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 (4:18 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 16:05 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	George Burton GBR	+0 s +300 s	Bike DNF	20:58	Show details Prediction details: George Burton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:47 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +300 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (4:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:47 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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