Prediction comparison

65-69 Female AG

21.06.2024 Coimbra POR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 6/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 11.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 55.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean swim error56.9 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Julie Robertson GBR	+41 s +62 s	Bike DNF	22:55 21:33	Show details Prediction details: Julie Robertson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 15:54 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -21.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:55 (4:35 / km) Historical basis: 4:35 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 15:54 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:55 (4:35 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Barbara Holmes GBR	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	23:55 22:56	Show details Prediction details: Barbara Holmes Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 15:13 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:47 / km Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 22:56 (4:35 / km) Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:13 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Jill Rogers GBR	+256 s +116 s	Bike DNF	23:58 22:47	Show details Prediction details: Jill Rogers Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +256 s Time: 19:29 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +116 s Fehler: 140.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:58 (4:48 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:29 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:58 (4:48 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Beverley Childs GBR	+109 s +226 s	Bike DNF	26:29 26:09	Show details Prediction details: Beverley Childs Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 17:02 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +226 s Fehler: -117.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km) Historical basis: 5:17 / km Best comparable pace: 5:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:09 (5:14 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:02 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Andrea Sanders Reece GBR	+269 s +362 s	Bike DNF	25:41	Show details Prediction details: Andrea Sanders Reece Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +269 s Time: 19:42 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +362 s Fehler: -93.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:41 (5:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:42 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Marie Helene Porta FRA	+318 s +313 s	Bike DNF	29:03 28:28	Show details Prediction details: Marie Helene Porta Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +318 s Time: 20:31 Pace: 2:03 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +313 s Fehler: 5.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 29:03 (5:49 / km) Historical basis: 5:47 / km Best comparable pace: 5:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:28 (5:42 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:31 (2:03 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:03 (5:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Fiona Barras GBR	+364 s +350 s	Bike DNF	32:06 31:20	Show details Prediction details: Fiona Barras Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +364 s Time: 21:17 Pace: 2:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +350 s Fehler: 13.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 32:06 (6:25 / km) Historical basis: 6:26 / km Best comparable pace: 6:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:20 (6:16 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 21:17 (2:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:06 (6:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Julie Brown GBR	+449 s +513 s	Bike DNF	33:14 30:27	Show details Prediction details: Julie Brown Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +449 s Time: 22:42 Pace: 2:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +513 s Fehler: -64.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 33:14 (6:39 / km) Historical basis: 6:39 / km Best comparable pace: 6:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:27 (6:05 / km) Error: +2:47 / +0:33 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 22:42 (2:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 33:14 (6:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Stella Lever GBR	+728 s +671 s	Bike DNF	28:10	Show details Prediction details: Stella Lever Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +728 s Time: 27:21 Pace: 2:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +671 s Fehler: 57.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:10 (5:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 27:21 (2:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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