Prediction comparison

70-74 Male AG

21.06.2024 Coimbra POR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 5/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 10.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.5

Mean swim error114.2 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Neil Arundel GBR	+3 s +0 s	Bike DNF	22:38 22:57	Show details Prediction details: Neil Arundel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 17:02 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:38 (4:32 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:57 (4:35 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:02 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:38 (4:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Alain Maubras FRA	+186 s +106 s	Bike DNF	22:49 23:02	Show details Prediction details: Alain Maubras Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +186 s Time: 20:05 Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: 80.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.93 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:49 (4:34 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:02 (4:36 / km) Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:05 (2:01 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:49 (4:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Michael Lisle GBR	+116 s +34 s	Bike DNF	25:06 24:25	Show details Prediction details: Michael Lisle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +116 s Time: 18:55 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 82.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 25:06 (5:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:57 / km Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:25 (4:53 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:55 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:06 (5:01 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Philip Kidd GBR	+171 s +266 s	Bike DNF	23:11 23:38	Show details Prediction details: Philip Kidd Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +171 s Time: 19:50 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +266 s Fehler: -94.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.54 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:38 (4:44 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:50 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Hans Heinz Schumacher GER	+248 s +293 s	Bike DNF	24:30 23:34	Show details Prediction details: Hans Heinz Schumacher Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +248 s Time: 21:07 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +293 s Fehler: -45.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:30 (4:54 / km) Historical basis: 4:56 / km Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 (4:43 / km) Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:07 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:30 (4:54 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Anthony Metcalfe GBR	+0 s +496 s	Bike DNF	21:00	Show details Prediction details: Anthony Metcalfe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:59 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +496 s Fehler: -496.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 (4:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:59 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Paul Bennett GBR	+233 s +288 s	Bike DNF	26:17 27:13	Show details Prediction details: Paul Bennett Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +233 s Time: 20:52 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +288 s Fehler: -54.9 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:17 (5:15 / km) Historical basis: 5:16 / km Best comparable pace: 5:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:13 (5:27 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:52 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:17 (5:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Colin Mitchell GBR	+402 s +435 s	Bike DNF	26:56 27:21	Show details Prediction details: Colin Mitchell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +402 s Time: 23:41 Pace: 2:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +435 s Fehler: -33.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:56 (5:23 / km) Historical basis: 5:25 / km Best comparable pace: 5:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:21 (5:28 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 23:41 (2:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:56 (5:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Graham Le Good GBR	+168 s +300 s	Bike DNF	22:59 33:13	Show details Prediction details: Graham Le Good Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +168 s Time: 19:47 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +300 s Fehler: -132.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km) Historical basis: 4:36 / km Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:13 (6:39 / km) Error: −10:14 / −2:03 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:47 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Luis Javier Aulet Marrero ESP	+365 s +485 s	Bike DNF	38:14 37:13	Show details Prediction details: Luis Javier Aulet Marrero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +365 s Time: 23:04 Pace: 2:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +485 s Fehler: -120.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.93 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 38:14 (7:39 / km) Historical basis: 7:38 / km Best comparable pace: 7:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:13 (7:27 / km) Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 23:04 (2:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 38:14 (7:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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