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45-49 Female AG Sprint

21.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 13.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 17.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.3
Mean swim error55.1 s
Mean bike-speed error3.16 km/h
Correct bike groups2/13
No history10
Within the 80% range17.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Erna Fontein
FRA
+0 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 26:38
19:50
 56:27
Show details
Prediction details: Erna Fontein

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -19.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 16.2 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:38 (5:26 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (4:03 / km)
Error: +6:48 / +1:23 / km
Overall prediction: 56:27
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 26:38 (5:26 / km)
Total: 56:27
2 / 2 Jane Eaton
GBR
+88 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 20:30
19:32
 57:07
Show details
Prediction details: Jane Eaton

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 13:01
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 72.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 71.9 s
Gap behind: 10.1 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:30 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 57:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:01 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:59 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 20:30 (4:11 / km)
Total: 57:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 84.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6 Lucinda Brown
GBR
+98 s
+20 s
G2 / G3
 22:09
20:15
 58:46
Show details
Prediction details: Lucinda Brown

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 13:11
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 78.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.1 s
Gap behind: 9.8 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:09 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:08 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 58:46
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 13:11 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:59 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 22:09 (4:31 / km)
Total: 58:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 94.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Kathy Wellam
GBR
+158 s
+78 s
G5 / G3
 20:57
20:22
 59:59
Show details
Prediction details: Kathy Wellam

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +158 s
Time: 14:11
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 80.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.8 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:57 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.34 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 59:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:11 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:14 (33.1 km/h)
Run: 20:57 (4:16 / km)
Total: 59:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 154.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15 Harriet Cunningham
GBR
+128 s
+145 s
G4 / G5
 22:20
23:38
 1:00:06
Show details
Prediction details: Harriet Cunningham

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 13:41
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: -16.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.3 s
Gap behind: 29.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:20 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.29 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:38 (4:49 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:06
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 13:41 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:37 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 22:20 (4:33 / km)
Total: 1:00:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 124.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1 Carole Perrot
SUI
+16 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 24:02
19:28
 1:00:39
Show details
Prediction details: Carole Perrot

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–11
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 11:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 4.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.2 s
Gap behind: 71.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:02 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 4:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:58 / km)
Error: +4:34 / +0:56 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:39
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:59 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 24:02 (4:54 / km)
Total: 1:00:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Janet Fletcher
GBR
+169 s
+119 s
G5 / G4
 24:13
20:39
 1:03:15
Show details
Prediction details: Janet Fletcher

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 11–13
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +169 s
Time: 14:22
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: 49.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 10.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:13 (4:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:39 (4:13 / km)
Error: +3:34 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:15
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:22 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:14 (33.1 km/h)
Run: 24:13 (4:57 / km)
Total: 1:03:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 164.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Hannah Grainger Clemson
BEL
+304 s
+208 s
G6 / G6
correct 		22:28
21:27
 1:04:44
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Grainger Clemson

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 12–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +304 s
Time: 16:37
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +208 s
Fehler: 95.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:28 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:27 (4:23 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:44
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:37 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 22:28 (4:35 / km)
Total: 1:04:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 300 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Anna Chapman
GBR
+108 s
+0 s
G3 / G1
22:26
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Chapman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 13:21
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 108.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.8 s
Gap behind: 20.3 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (4:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:21 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:41 (33.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 104.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Hannah Quay
GBR
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G3
20:36
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Quay

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 (4:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Caroline Holme
GBR
+0 s
+113 s
G0 / G4
20:08
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Holme

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (4:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Malgorzata Harasimiuk-Grodzka
POL
+249 s
+213 s
G6 / G4
21:08
Show details
Prediction details: Malgorzata Harasimiuk-Grodzka

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +249 s
Time: 15:42
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +213 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.2 s
Gap behind: 27.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:08 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:42 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 245.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Angela Reeve
GBR
+0 s
+75 s
G0 / G8
18:53
Show details
Prediction details: Angela Reeve

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Emma Green
GBR
+0 s
+160 s
G0 / G8
19:03
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Green

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +160 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Ewa Samulska
POL
+0 s
+150 s
G0 / G5
22:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ewa Samulska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Alexandra Bellerby
GBR
+228 s
+218 s
G6 / G6
correct
23:44
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Bellerby

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +228 s
Time: 15:21
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +218 s
Fehler: 9.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 49.0 s
Gap behind: 21.2 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:44 (4:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:21 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 223.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Catrin Knuth
GER
+0 s
+100 s
G0 / G6
23:56
Show details
Prediction details: Catrin Knuth

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:56 (4:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Martina Graf
AUT
+276 s
+197 s
G6 / G8
22:40
Show details
Prediction details: Martina Graf

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +276 s
Time: 16:09
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +197 s
Fehler: 79.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.0 s
Gap behind: 27.9 s
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:40 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:09 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 272.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Emilie Bois
FRA
+0 s
+205 s
G0 / G7
24:39
Show details
Prediction details: Emilie Bois

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +205 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:39 (5:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Wioletta Kulesza Born Walczak
BEL
+179 s
+111 s
G6 / G4
26:22
Show details
Prediction details: Wioletta Kulesza Born Walczak

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +179 s
Time: 14:32
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: 67.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.1 s
Gap behind: 49.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:22 (5:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 14:32 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 174.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 Clare Whittaker
GBR
+0 s
+271 s
G0 / G9
24:56
Show details
Prediction details: Clare Whittaker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +271 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:56 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 Vicky Cuthbertson
GBR
+0 s
+290 s
G0 / G9
27:09
Show details
Prediction details: Vicky Cuthbertson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +290 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:09 (5:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Martina Ortbauer
AUT
+0 s
+334 s
G0 / G10
29:20
Show details
Prediction details: Martina Ortbauer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +334 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:20 (5:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.