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45-49 Male AG Sprint

21.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 9.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 24.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.8
Mean swim error99.6 s
Mean bike-speed error3.00 km/h
Correct bike groups4/22
No history11
Within the 80% range15.2 %
Details
1 / 1 Donald Brooks
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:52
16:52
 46:23
Show details
Prediction details: Donald Brooks

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:31 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:26 / km)
Total: 46:23
2 / 3 Lionel Roye
FRA
+45 s
+30 s
G3 / G2
 17:07
17:12
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Lionel Roye

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 41.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:30 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 41.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Xavier Tupet
FRA
+26 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:22
17:35
 50:59
Show details
Prediction details: Xavier Tupet

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -13.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 12.8 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 22.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Eric Turbe
FRA
+39 s
+79 s
G3 / G5
 17:54
18:15
 51:26
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Turbe

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -40.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.8 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 35 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 14 Juan Antonio Vergara Nebro
ESP
+7 s
+60 s
G2 / G3
 20:25
21:18
 53:02
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Antonio Vergara Nebro

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -52.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 18.3 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:25 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:18 (4:21 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 53:02
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 20:25 (4:10 / km)
Total: 53:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Neil Dalton
GBR
+25 s
+60 s
G2 / G3
 21:08
20:03
 53:45
Show details
Prediction details: Neil Dalton

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 16–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -34.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:08 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:03 (4:06 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:45
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:11 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 21:08 (4:19 / km)
Total: 53:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 21.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 16 Rhys Harries
GBR
+164 s
+111 s
G4 / G7
 18:19
18:21
 55:11
Show details
Prediction details: Rhys Harries

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +164 s
Time: 12:48
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: 53.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 55:11
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:48 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:44 / km)
Total: 55:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 160.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Piotr Różalski
POL
+162 s
+96 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:37
18:17
 55:29
Show details
Prediction details: Piotr Różalski

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +162 s
Time: 12:46
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 66.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 55:29
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:46 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:48 / km)
Total: 55:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 158.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 20 Garry Walker
GBR
+123 s
+173 s
G4 / G7
 19:47
20:06
 56:39
Show details
Prediction details: Garry Walker

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +123 s
Time: 12:07
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +173 s
Fehler: -50.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:47 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:06 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 56:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:07 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 19:47 (4:02 / km)
Total: 56:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 118.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17 Peter Staniland
GBR
+366 s
+170 s
G5 / G7
 19:29
19:01
 1:00:21
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Staniland

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +366 s
Time: 16:10
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: 195.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 46.8 s
Gap behind: 541.2 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:21
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:10 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:46 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:59 / km)
Total: 1:00:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 361.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 29 Luke Maxwell
GBR
+196 s
+271 s
G5 / G13
 21:12
18:57
 1:02:04
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Maxwell

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +196 s
Time: 13:20
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +271 s
Fehler: -74.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: 39.6 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:12 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:52 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:04
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:20 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:46 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 21:12 (4:20 / km)
Total: 1:02:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 192.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 David Sajat
FRA
+0 s
+52 s
G0 / G2
16:24
Show details
Prediction details: David Sajat

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Mark Taylor
GBR
+86 s
+112 s
G3 / G4
18:05
Show details
Prediction details: Mark Taylor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: -26.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.0 s
Gap behind: 36.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:30 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 82.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Mik Onions
GBR
+0 s
+92 s
G1 / G3
18:56
Show details
Prediction details: Mik Onions

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -92.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:31 (40.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Mikael Mauplin
FRA
+0 s
+105 s
G0 / G5
18:13
Show details
Prediction details: Mikael Mauplin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Arne Eschenbruch
GER
+128 s
+83 s
G4 / G3
19:39
Show details
Prediction details: Arne Eschenbruch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: 45.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:12 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 124 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Leighton Jones
GBR
+262 s
+141 s
G5 / G5
correct
19:50
Show details
Prediction details: Leighton Jones

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +262 s
Time: 14:26
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: 121.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.0 s
Gap behind: 57.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (4:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:26 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:46 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 258.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 David Bird
GBR
+149 s
+184 s
G4 / G7
17:43
Show details
Prediction details: David Bird

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +149 s
Time: 12:33
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: -35.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 13.4 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:33 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 145.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Juraj Brož
SVK
+0 s
+130 s
G0 / G5
20:27
Show details
Prediction details: Juraj Brož

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +130 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:27 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Giles Carter
GBR
+319 s
+173 s
G5 / G7
19:23
Show details
Prediction details: Giles Carter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +319 s
Time: 15:23
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +173 s
Fehler: 146.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 57.0 s
Gap behind: 46.8 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:23 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:46 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 315.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Peter Olejár
SVK
+0 s
+122 s
G0 / G6
19:48
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Olejár

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (4:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Christian Ousko-Oberhoffer
AUT
+122 s
+145 s
G4 / G7
19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Ousko-Oberhoffer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +122 s
Time: 12:06
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: -23.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 36.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (4:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:06 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 118.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Vincent Joly
FRA
+236 s
+226 s
G5 / G8
19:59
Show details
Prediction details: Vincent Joly

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +236 s
Time: 14:00
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +226 s
Fehler: 10.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.6 s
Gap behind: 26.0 s
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 14:00 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:46 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 232.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Gordon Mitchell
GBR
+0 s
+318 s
G1 / G8
20:26
Show details
Prediction details: Gordon Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +318 s
Fehler: -318.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:31 (40.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 24 Daivis Urba
LTU
+0 s
+117 s
G0 / G10
19:44
Show details
Prediction details: Daivis Urba

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (4:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Anthony Lally
IRL
+0 s
+264 s
G0 / G9
20:31
Show details
Prediction details: Anthony Lally

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +264 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:31 (4:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Cédric De Coster
BEL
+0 s
+271 s
G0 / G8
22:22
Show details
Prediction details: Cédric De Coster

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +271 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:22 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Łukasz Idkowiak
POL
+0 s
+319 s
G0 / G9
21:31
Show details
Prediction details: Łukasz Idkowiak

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +319 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:31 (4:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28 Lee Williams
GBR
+0 s
+224 s
G0 / G11
21:10
Show details
Prediction details: Lee Williams

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +224 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:10 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Bernhard Mauersperger
AUT
+907 s
+324 s
G6 / G12
20:05
Show details
Prediction details: Bernhard Mauersperger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +907 s
Time: 25:11
Pace: 3:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +324 s
Fehler: 583.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 541.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 25:11 (3:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:31 (34.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 903.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31 Mark Huber
AUT
+0 s
+195 s
G1 / G11
26:21
Show details
Prediction details: Mark Huber

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +195 s
Fehler: -195.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:21 (5:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:31 (40.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 32 Siegfried Kainz
AUT
+0 s
+317 s
G0 / G14
24:59
Show details
Prediction details: Siegfried Kainz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 32–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +317 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:59 (5:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 33 Lionel Legrand
BEL
+0 s
+457 s
G0 / G15
26:37
Show details
Prediction details: Lionel Legrand

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +457 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:37 (5:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.