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55-59 Female AG Sprint

21.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 47.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.9
Mean swim error152.3 s
Mean bike-speed error3.57 km/h
Correct bike groups8/16
No history3
Within the 80% range10.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Antje Ungewickell
GER
+55 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:25
20:15
 58:45
Show details
Prediction details: Antje Ungewickell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 13:35
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 55.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 55.4 s
Gap behind: 8.5 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:25 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:08 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 58:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:35 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 20:25 (4:10 / km)
Total: 58:45
2 / 2 Jacqui Phillips
GBR
+73 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:47
21:07
 59:07
Show details
Prediction details: Jacqui Phillips

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 13:53
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 69.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 45.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:47 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 59:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:53 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 20:47 (4:15 / km)
Total: 59:07
3 / 7 Myka Heard
GBR
+64 s
+32 s
G1 / G3
 24:18
24:00
 1:02:38
Show details
Prediction details: Myka Heard

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 10–11
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 13:44
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 31.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:18 (4:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:00 (4:54 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:44 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 24:18 (4:58 / km)
Total: 1:02:38
4 / 5 Alison Smith
GBR
+122 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		22:29
22:28
 1:05:21
Show details
Prediction details: Alison Smith

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 10–11
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +122 s
Time: 14:42
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 107.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 71.1 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:29 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:28 (4:35 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:21
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:42 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:50 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 22:29 (4:35 / km)
Total: 1:05:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:34
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +113.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Kathryn Butt
GBR
+119 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		26:04
24:51
 1:08:56
Show details
Prediction details: Kathryn Butt

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +119 s
Time: 14:39
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 74.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:04 (5:19 / km)
Historical basis: 5:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:51 (5:04 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:56
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:39 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:50 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 26:04 (5:19 / km)
Total: 1:08:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:57
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 41.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +76.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 14 Karen Watson
IRL
+193 s
+243 s
G3 / G6
 27:08
24:38
 1:11:48
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Watson

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +193 s
Time: 15:53
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +243 s
Fehler: -50.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 71.1 s
Gap behind: 83.1 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:08 (5:32 / km)
Historical basis: 5:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:38 (5:02 / km)
Error: +2:30 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:48
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:53 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:27 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 27:08 (5:32 / km)
Total: 1:11:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:48
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
About 125.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 15 Tania Conway
GBR
+276 s
+215 s
G4 / G5
 27:04
26:10
 1:12:39
Show details
Prediction details: Tania Conway

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +276 s
Time: 17:16
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +215 s
Fehler: 61.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 83.1 s
Gap behind: 71.5 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:04 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:10 (5:20 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:39
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:16 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 27:04 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:12:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:57
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 199.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +76.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Jayne Dickens
GBR
+491 s
+258 s
G5 / G6
 25:16
23:45
 1:14:29
Show details
Prediction details: Jayne Dickens

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +491 s
Time: 20:51
Pace: 2:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +258 s
Fehler: 232.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 143.1 s
Gap behind: 65.3 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:16 (5:09 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:45 (4:51 / km)
Error: +1:31 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:29
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:51 (2:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:57 (29.9 km/h)
Run: 25:16 (5:09 / km)
Total: 1:14:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:57
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 413.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +76.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Edyta Jakubowska-Olech
POL
+566 s
+313 s
G6 / G6
correct 		24:23
23:44
 1:16:02
Show details
Prediction details: Edyta Jakubowska-Olech

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +566 s
Time: 22:06
Pace: 2:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +313 s
Fehler: 252.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:23 (4:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:44 (4:51 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:02
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 22:06 (2:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:13 (28.6 km/h)
Run: 24:23 (4:59 / km)
Total: 1:16:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:48
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
About 498 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Bettina Haas
GER
+118 s
+69 s
G2 / G2
correct
21:07
Show details
Prediction details: Bettina Haas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 14:38
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 49.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:38 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:50 (29.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:35
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +114.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Marion Angelika Pyrlik
GER
+64 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct
24:14
Show details
Prediction details: Marion Angelika Pyrlik

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 13:44
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 52.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:14 (4:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:44 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8 Anne Gautier Maurel
FRA
+556 s
+237 s
G5 / G5
correct
21:46
Show details
Prediction details: Anne Gautier Maurel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +556 s
Time: 21:56
Pace: 2:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +237 s
Fehler: 319.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 65.3 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:46 (4:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:56 (2:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:57 (29.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:57
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 479.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +76.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Carla Van Aert
BEL
+0 s
+208 s
G0 / G4
23:19
Show details
Prediction details: Carla Van Aert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:40
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +208 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:19 (4:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:40 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Joanna Hutton
GBR
+0 s
+233 s
G0 / G5
23:34
Show details
Prediction details: Joanna Hutton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:40
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +233 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 (4:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:40 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Sharon Skidmore
GBR
+0 s
+279 s
G1 / G7
23:13
Show details
Prediction details: Sharon Skidmore

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:40
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +279 s
Fehler: -279.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:13 (4:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:40 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 16 Sylvie Perrocheau
FRA
+0 s
+240 s
G0 / G8
27:43
Show details
Prediction details: Sylvie Perrocheau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:40
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +240 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:43 (5:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:40 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Shirley Wilkinson
GBR
+348 s
+184 s
G5 / G9
27:59
Show details
Prediction details: Shirley Wilkinson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +348 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: 163.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 71.5 s
Gap behind: 143.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:59 (5:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:28 (2:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:57 (29.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:48
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
About 279.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 Sylvia Hehei
AUT
+566 s
+599 s
G6 / G10
26:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sylvia Hehei

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +566 s
Time: 22:06
Pace: 2:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +599 s
Fehler: -33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:20 (5:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 22:06 (2:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:13 (28.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:57
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 489.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +76.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Iris Planckh
AUT
+0 s
+605 s
G1 / G11
33:45
Show details
Prediction details: Iris Planckh

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:40
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +605 s
Fehler: -605.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 55.4 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:45 (6:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:40 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:07 (32.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable