Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

PTWC Men

22.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 45/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error41.2 s
Mean bike-speed error3.71 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Geert Schipper H2
NED
+46 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:29
11:39
 44:56
Show details
Prediction details: Geert Schipper H2

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 11:59
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 45.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:29 (2:18 / km)
Historical basis: 2:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:39 (2:20 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:59 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 11:29 (2:18 / km)
Total: 44:56
2 / 2 Florian Brungraber H2
AUT
+56 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 11:33
11:50
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Florian Brungraber H2

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 12:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 43.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 15.3 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:33 (2:19 / km)
Historical basis: 2:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:50 (2:22 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:09 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 11:33 (2:19 / km)
Total: 45:00
3 / 3 Louis Noel H2
FRA
+44 s
+1 s
G1 / G3
 12:17
13:58
 45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Noel H2

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 11:57
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 42.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:17 (2:27 / km)
Historical basis: 2:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:58 (2:48 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 45:44
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:57 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 12:17 (2:27 / km)
Total: 45:44
4 / 4 Joshua Landmann H2
GBR
+71 s
+38 s
G2 / G4
 13:43
13:19
 53:15
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Landmann H2

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 33.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:43 (2:45 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:19 (2:40 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:15
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:24 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:21 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 13:43 (2:45 / km)
Total: 53:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 21.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +49.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.