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50-54 Male AG

20.06.2024 Coimbra POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 15.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 30.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error105.5 s
Mean bike-speed error11.01 km/h
Correct bike groups1/10
No history3
Within the 80% range15.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Steven Farnell
GBR
+197 s
+144 s
G1 / G4
 27:56
32:38
 1:21:32
Show details
Prediction details: Steven Farnell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +197 s
Time: 19:38
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: 52.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 93.5 s
Gap behind: 19.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 22.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:56 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:38 (4:44 / km)
Error: −4:42 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:32
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 19:38 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 27:56 (4:03 / km)
Total: 1:21:32
2 / 2 Michele Bellemo
ITA
+103 s
+101 s
G1 / G2
 30:33
30:48
 1:24:09
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Bellemo

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.4 s
Gap behind: 93.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 23.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:33 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:48 (4:28 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 30:33 (4:26 / km)
Total: 1:24:09
3 / 5 Nicola Doria
ITA
+0 s
+158 s
G1 / G5
 30:50
32:43
 1:24:26
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Doria

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:21
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +158 s
Fehler: -158.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 86.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 22.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:50 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:43 (4:44 / km)
Error: −1:53 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 16:21 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 30:50 (4:28 / km)
Total: 1:24:26
4 / 7 Christophe Bourjon
FRA
+299 s
+301 s
G1 / G7
 31:50
36:08
 1:25:26
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Bourjon

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +299 s
Time: 21:20
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +301 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 83.1 s
Gap behind: 230.9 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 21.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:50 (4:37 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (5:14 / km)
Error: −4:18 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 21:20 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 31:50 (4:37 / km)
Total: 1:25:26
5 / 8 Luis Ferreira
POR
+530 s
+214 s
G1 / G8
 37:30
37:31
 1:31:06
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +530 s
Time: 25:11
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +214 s
Fehler: 316.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 230.9 s
Gap behind: 85.4 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 20.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:30 (5:26 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:31 (5:26 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:06
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 25:11 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 37:30 (5:26 / km)
Total: 1:31:06
6 / 12 Joaquim Rosado
POR
+615 s
+688 s
G1 / G12
 48:57
56:18
 1:42:33
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquim Rosado

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +615 s
Time: 26:36
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +688 s
Fehler: -72.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 85.4 s
Gap behind: 148.6 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:57 (7:06 / km)
Historical basis: 7:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 56:18 (8:10 / km)
Error: −7:21 / −1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:33
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 26:36 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 48:57 (7:06 / km)
Total: 1:42:33
0 / 1 Tommy Nielsen
DEN
+86 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
31:14
Show details
Prediction details: Tommy Nielsen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 86.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 86.0 s
Gap behind: 17.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 25.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:14 (4:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:47 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Dave Rogers
GBR
+0 s
+14 s
G0 / G3
31:46
Show details
Prediction details: Dave Rogers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:21
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 22.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:46 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:21 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Jean-Michel Vie
POR
+216 s
+278 s
G1 / G6
34:39
Show details
Prediction details: Jean-Michel Vie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +216 s
Time: 19:57
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +278 s
Fehler: -62.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.1 s
Gap behind: 83.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 21.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:39 (5:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:57 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Christopher Hall
GBR
+0 s
+324 s
G0 / G9
39:15
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Hall

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:21
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +324 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 20.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:15 (5:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:21 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Humberto Cunha
POR
+0 s
+480 s
G0 / G10
36:00
Show details
Prediction details: Humberto Cunha

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:21
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +480 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 20.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:00 (5:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:21 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Fernando Igreja
POR
+780 s
+744 s
G1 / G11
44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando Igreja

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +780 s
Time: 29:21
Pace: 2:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +744 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 19.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:41 (6:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 29:21 (2:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 13 Ulisses Lopes
POR
+764 s
+497 s
G1 / G13
1:18:19
Show details
Prediction details: Ulisses Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +764 s
Time: 29:05
Pace: 2:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +497 s
Fehler: 267.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 148.6 s
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 13.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:18:19 (11:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 29:05 (2:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable