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70-74 Male AG

20.06.2024 Coimbra POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error249.3 s
Mean bike-speed error9.42 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Stefano Piolanti
ITA
+417 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 31:56
37:33
 1:29:07
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Piolanti

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +417 s
Time: 34:33
Pace: 2:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 417.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 21.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:56 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:33 (5:27 / km)
Error: −5:37 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:33 (2:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 50:14 (25.8 km/h)
Run: 31:56 (4:38 / km)
Total: 1:29:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 34:29
Pace: 2:52 / 100 m
About 4.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +412.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Colin Hunt
GBR
+241 s
+201 s
G1 / G2
 44:59
46:18
 1:33:23
Show details
Prediction details: Colin Hunt

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +241 s
Time: 31:37
Pace: 2:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +201 s
Fehler: 40.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.66 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 175.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 17.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:59 (6:31 / km)
Historical basis: 6:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:18 (6:43 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 31:37 (2:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:22 (29.2 km/h)
Run: 44:59 (6:31 / km)
Total: 1:33:23
3 / 3 Francisco Gala Pla
ESP
+417 s
+126 s
G2 / G3
 1:01:07
1:04:41
 1:58:18
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Gala Pla

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +417 s
Time: 34:33
Pace: 2:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: 290.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.69 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 175.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:01:07 (8:52 / km)
Historical basis: 8:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:04:41 (9:22 / km)
Error: −3:34 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:33 (2:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 50:14 (25.8 km/h)
Run: 1:01:07 (8:52 / km)
Total: 1:58:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 31:41
Pace: 2:38 / 100 m
About 171.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +245 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.