Prediction comparison
75-79 Male AG
20.06.2024
Coimbra
POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Coimbra
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error489.0 s
Mean bike-speed error24.85 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Anton Hergouth
AUT
|
+489 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
1:05:42
1:13:06
|
1:45:53 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +489 s
Time: 39:39
Pace: 3:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 489.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 15.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.85 km/h
Running and totalRun: 1:05:42 (9:31 / km)
Historical basis: 9:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:13:06 (10:36 / km)
Error: −7:24 / −1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
39:39
(3:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:02
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
1:05:42
(9:31 / km)
Total:
1:45:53
|