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Elite Men

20.06.2024 Coimbra POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 51/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 61.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.9
Mean swim error53.0 s
Mean bike-speed error6.36 km/h
Correct bike groups1/13
No history0
Within the 80% range30.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 11 Hugo Jan Bosscher
NED
+7 s
+52 s
G1 / G9
 25:16
29:01
 57:54
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Jan Bosscher

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 13:54
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -45.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 24.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:16 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:01 (4:12 / km)
Error: −3:45 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 57:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:54 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 25:16 (3:40 / km)
Total: 57:54
2 / 7 Michele Bonacina
ITA
+1 s
+47 s
G1 / G6
 26:54
25:59
 59:32
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 13:48
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -45.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 25.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:54 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:59 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 59:32
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:48 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 26:54 (3:54 / km)
Total: 59:32
3 / 5 Lucas Goené
NED
+7 s
+53 s
G1 / G3
 27:01
26:57
 59:39
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Goené

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 13:54
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -46.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:01 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:57 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 59:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:54 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 27:01 (3:55 / km)
Total: 59:39
4 / 6 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+43 s
+19 s
G3 / G4
 23:57
26:41
 1:16:09
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 14:30
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.3 s
Gap behind: 26.7 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:57 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:41 (3:52 / km)
Error: −2:44 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:30 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:29 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 23:57 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:16:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:05
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10 Daniel Kraviansky
SVK
+137 s
+170 s
G4 / G10
 23:33
27:06
 1:17:40
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Kraviansky

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +137 s
Time: 16:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: -33.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 29.2 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 25.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:33 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:06 (3:56 / km)
Error: −3:33 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:17:40
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:04 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:21 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 23:33 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:17:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:53
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 71.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+15 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 26:21
26:12
 1:18:27
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 14:02
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:21 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:12 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:02 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 26:21 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:18:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 4.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12 Hugo Bourjon
FRA
+136 s
+193 s
G4 / G11
 24:55
28:47
 1:19:02
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Bourjon

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +136 s
Time: 16:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: -56.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 66.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:55 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.77 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:47 (4:10 / km)
Error: −3:52 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:21 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 24:55 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:19:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 125.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Federico Spinazzé
ITA
+21 s
+55 s
G3 / G1
 27:18
26:21
 1:19:30
Show details
Prediction details: Federico Spinazzé

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 14:08
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -33.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 21.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:18 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:21 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:08 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:29 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 27:18 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:19:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 3 Jules Dumas
FRA
+11 s
+50 s
G2 / G2
correct 		27:36
26:25
 1:19:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Dumas

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -38.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:36 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:25 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:42
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:58 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 27:36 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:19:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 4 Ruben Ruzafa Cueto
ESP
+69 s
+114 s
G4 / G5
 26:14
25:20
 1:20:21
Show details
Prediction details: Ruben Ruzafa Cueto

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 14:56
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -44.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.7 s
Gap behind: 66.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:14 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:20:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:56 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:21 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 26:14 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:20:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 58.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Alexandre Gleyze
FRA
+166 s
+97 s
G4 / G8
 30:55
26:46
 1:25:02
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandre Gleyze

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +166 s
Time: 16:33
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: 68.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 25.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:55 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.09 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:46 (3:53 / km)
Error: +4:09 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:02
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 16:33 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:21 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 30:55 (4:29 / km)
Total: 1:25:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:58
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 154.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Rory Strachan
GBR
+4 s
+30 s
G1 / G7
28:22
Show details
Prediction details: Rory Strachan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 13:51
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -26.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:22 (4:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:51 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (39.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 13 Boris Janata
SVK
+0 s
+212 s
G1 / G12
31:22
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Janata

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:47
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +212 s
Fehler: -212.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 23.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:22 (4:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:47 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:31 (39.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable