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Prediction comparison

50-54 Male AG

18.06.2024 Coimbra POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 10/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 30.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean bike-speed error21.52 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Details
0 / 1 Miquel Capo Soler
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Miquel Capo Soler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 22.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Michele Bellemo
ITA
+86 s
G0 / G3
 27:19
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Bellemo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time:
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 22.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:19 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:21 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 27:19 (4:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Jason Williams
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G2
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jason Williams

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 22.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:51 (7:04 / km)
Historical basis: 7:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:01 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 43:51 (7:04 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Greg Simcock
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Greg Simcock

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 22.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:07 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Manuel Diaz Roman
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Diaz Roman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 21.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -21.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:43 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Nicola Doria
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G6
 27:43
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Doria

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 21.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -21.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:43 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:59 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 27:43 (4:28 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Simon Clarke
GBR
+634 s
G0 / G9
 24:41
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Clarke

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +634 s
Time:
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 20.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -20.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:41 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:48 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 24:41 (3:59 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Victor Teixeira
POR
+0 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Teixeira

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 20.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:12 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Johnathan Dominguez
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Johnathan Dominguez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 21.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:38 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Simon Marks
GBR
+405 s
G0 / G10
 29:39
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Marks

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +405 s
Time:
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 17.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -17.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:39 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:57 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 29:39 (4:47 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.