Prediction comparison

Elite Men

27.10.2024 Alanya TUR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Alanya

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 66/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error12.8

Mean swim error11.4 s

Mean bike-speed error2.24 km/h

Correct bike groups18/67

No history0

Within the 80% range56.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 6	Gergely Kiss HUN	+19 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:31 13:39	43:24	Show details Prediction details: Gergely Kiss Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–16 Top-10 probability: 79 % Result: 6 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 18.9 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.55 km/h Running and total Run: 14:31 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:39 (2:49 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 43:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 14:31 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:24
2 / 62	Henry Graf GER	+17 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:34 18:10	43:27	Show details Prediction details: Henry Graf Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–12 Top-10 probability: 79 % Result: 62 Deviation: -60 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 4.6 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 66 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h Running and total Run: 14:34 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:00 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:44 / km) Error: −3:36 / −0:44 / km Overall prediction: 43:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 14:34 (3:00 / km) Total: 43:27
3 / 31	Hamish Reilly GBR	+11 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:40 14:31	43:33	Show details Prediction details: Hamish Reilly Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–19 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 31 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 6.6 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h Running and total Run: 14:40 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 14:40 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:33
4 / 45	Sam Hart GBR	+28 s +17 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:20 14:44	43:37	Show details Prediction details: Sam Hart Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–22 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 45 Deviation: -41 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 11.0 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 14:20 (2:57 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (3:02 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:20 (2:57 / km) Total: 43:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 18	Dominic Coy GBR	+28 s +34 s	G2 / G1	14:26 14:04	43:43	Show details Prediction details: Dominic Coy Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–28 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 18 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -6.0 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.62 km/h Running and total Run: 14:26 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:04 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:22 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:26 (2:58 / km) Total: 43:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 25	David Lang LUX	+28 s +28 s	G2 / G1	14:29 14:23	43:46	Show details Prediction details: David Lang Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–18 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 25 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -0.1 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h Running and total Run: 14:29 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (2:58 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:29 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 22	Mateo Vidal FRA	+19 s +25 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:53 14:24	43:46	Show details Prediction details: Mateo Vidal Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–23 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 22 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -6.4 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h Running and total Run: 14:53 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:24 (2:58 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 14:53 (3:04 / km) Total: 43:46
8 / 9	Euan De Nigro ITA	+25 s +8 s	G2 / G1	14:33 13:58	43:50	Show details Prediction details: Euan De Nigro Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–22 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 9 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 17.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h Running and total Run: 14:33 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:58 (2:52 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 43:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:33 (3:00 / km) Total: 43:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 6.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 5	Jimmy Lund GBR	+10 s +9 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:57 13:38	43:50	Show details Prediction details: Jimmy Lund Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–23 Top-10 probability: 46 % Result: 5 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 1.1 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h Running and total Run: 14:57 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:38 (2:48 / km) Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 43:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 14:57 (3:05 / km) Total: 43:50
10 / 19	Chris Ziehmer GER	+25 s +15 s	G2 / G1	14:36 14:05	43:53	Show details Prediction details: Chris Ziehmer Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 3–32 Top-10 probability: 41 % Result: 19 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h Running and total Run: 14:36 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:05 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:36 (3:00 / km) Total: 43:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 6.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14	Jan Bader AUT	+25 s +25 s	G2 / G1	14:40 13:58	43:57	Show details Prediction details: Jan Bader Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 5–28 Top-10 probability: 40 % Result: 14 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -0.5 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.42 km/h Running and total Run: 14:40 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:58 (2:52 / km) Error: +0:42 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:40 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 5.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 21	Léo Fernandez FRA	+31 s +22 s	G2 / G1	14:42 14:17	43:59	Show details Prediction details: Léo Fernandez Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 3–39 Top-10 probability: 36 % Result: 21 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 9.1 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h Running and total Run: 14:42 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:17 (2:56 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:42 (3:02 / km) Total: 43:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 12.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 8	Gergő Dobi HUN	+6 s +14 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:08 13:47	44:01	Show details Prediction details: Gergő Dobi Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 11–23 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 8 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -8.3 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 15:08 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:47 (2:50 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 44:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:08 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:01
14 / 30	Alexis Lherieau SUI	+16 s +7 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:12 14:28	44:05	Show details Prediction details: Alexis Lherieau Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 9–27 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 30 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 9.1 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 15:12 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:28 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:12 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:05
15 / 15	Sylvain Fridelance SUI	+23 s +28 s	G2 / G1	14:49 14:05	44:06	Show details Prediction details: Sylvain Fridelance Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 8–25 Top-10 probability: 26 % Result: 15 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -5.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.75 km/h Running and total Run: 14:49 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:05 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 14:49 (3:03 / km) Total: 44:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 3.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11	Tom Lerno FRA	+10 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:14 13:49	44:07	Show details Prediction details: Tom Lerno Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 6–35 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 11 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 5.5 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 15:14 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:49 (2:51 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 44:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:14 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:07
17 / 13	Joris Basslé BEL	+16 s +10 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:15 13:59	44:08	Show details Prediction details: Joris Basslé Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 12–27 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 13 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 6.2 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:59 (2:53 / km) Error: +1:16 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:08
18 / 12	Pablo Isotton FRA	+17 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:20 13:55	44:13	Show details Prediction details: Pablo Isotton Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 9–43 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 12 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 13.3 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h Running and total Run: 15:20 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:55 (2:52 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 44:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:20 (3:09 / km) Total: 44:13
19 / 24	Oliver Conway GBR	+28 s +25 s	G2 / G1	15:00 14:22	44:17	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Conway Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 12–34 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 24 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h Running and total Run: 15:00 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (2:57 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:00 (3:05 / km) Total: 44:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 2	Guillaume Hay FRA	+30 s +15 s	G2 / G1	15:01 13:40	44:18	Show details Prediction details: Guillaume Hay Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 14–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:01 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:40 (2:49 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 44:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:01 (3:05 / km) Total: 44:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 10.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 16	Ian Pennekamp NED	+27 s +1 s	G2 / G1	15:09 14:11	44:26	Show details Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 9–47 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 16 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 25.5 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.91 km/h Running and total Run: 15:09 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 (2:55 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 44:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:09 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 7.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 60	Aurelien Carre LUX	+32 s +50 s	G2 / G3	15:09 15:35	44:26	Show details Prediction details: Aurelien Carre Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 21–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -18.4 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h Running and total Run: 15:09 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:12 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:09 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 10	Fynn Batkin GBR	+37 s +10 s	G3 / G1	14:32 13:47	44:29	Show details Prediction details: Fynn Batkin Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 11–29 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 10 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 27.0 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.61 km/h Running and total Run: 14:32 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:47 (2:50 / km) Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:29 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 14:32 (2:59 / km) Total: 44:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 18.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 20	Sasha Caterina SUI	+25 s +7 s	G2 / G1	15:18 14:11	44:35	Show details Prediction details: Sasha Caterina Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 17–39 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 20 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 17.8 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h Running and total Run: 15:18 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 97 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 (2:55 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 44:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:18 (3:09 / km) Total: 44:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 5.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 7	Baptiste Passemard FRA	+23 s +3 s	G2 / G1	15:23 13:51	44:40	Show details Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 3–55 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 7 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 20.2 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h Running and total Run: 15:23 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:51 (2:51 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 44:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:23 (3:10 / km) Total: 44:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 4.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 38	Niklas Keller AUT	+29 s +17 s	G2 / G1	15:23 14:56	44:40	Show details Prediction details: Niklas Keller Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 14–48 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 38 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 12.1 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.26 km/h Running and total Run: 15:23 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:27 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:23 (3:10 / km) Total: 44:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 10.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 17	Solomon Okrafo-Smart GBR	+41 s +28 s	G3 / G1	14:44 14:08	44:41	Show details Prediction details: Solomon Okrafo-Smart Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 17–44 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 17 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 12.9 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.26 km/h Running and total Run: 14:44 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:08 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 14:44 (3:02 / km) Total: 44:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 22 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 42	Gaspard Tharreau FRA	+24 s +32 s	G2 / G1	15:24 14:56	44:41	Show details Prediction details: Gaspard Tharreau Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 14–45 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 42 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: -8.3 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h Running and total Run: 15:24 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:24 (3:10 / km) Total: 44:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 4.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 37	Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg DEN	+31 s +8 s	G2 / G1	15:26 14:55	44:43	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 19–52 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 37 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 22.5 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 60 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 15:26 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:26 (3:11 / km) Total: 44:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 56	Artjoms Gajevskis LAT	+22 s +26 s	G2 / G3	15:32 15:05	44:49	Show details Prediction details: Artjoms Gajevskis Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 22–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -4.4 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:32 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:27 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:32 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 2.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 23	Victor Goené NED	+28 s +28 s	G2 / G1	15:34 14:19	44:51	Show details Prediction details: Victor Goené Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 25–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 0.1 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:19 (2:57 / km) Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 44:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 40	Andreas Nikolajsen DEN	+24 s +7 s	G2 / G1	15:37 14:53	44:54	Show details Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 15–45 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 40 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h Running and total Run: 15:37 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:37 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 5.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 48	Igor Bellido Mikhailova ESP	+28 s +5 s	G2 / G1	15:40 15:28	44:57	Show details Prediction details: Igor Bellido Mikhailova Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 28–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 22.5 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.91 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 44:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 8.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 34	Gültigin Er TUR	+20 s +23 s	G2 / G1	15:41 14:43	44:58	Show details Prediction details: Gültigin Er Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 19–40 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 34 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: -2.9 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h Running and total Run: 15:41 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (3:02 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 44:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:41 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 1.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 63	Olaf Jan Bosscher NED	+26 s +36 s	G2 / G3	15:42 16:33	44:59	Show details Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 25–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -9.6 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 44:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 7.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 47	Janne Büttel GER	+33 s +14 s	G2 / G1	15:45 15:30	45:02	Show details Prediction details: Janne Büttel Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 25–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 19.2 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:45 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:45 (3:14 / km) Total: 45:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 14.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 1	Thomas Hansmaennel FRA	+33 s +28 s	G2 / G1	15:51 13:33	45:08	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Hansmaennel Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 35–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: 36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 4.8 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h Running and total Run: 15:51 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:33 (2:47 / km) Error: +2:18 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 45:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:51 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 13.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 43	Fabian Schönke GER	+37 s +41 s	G3 / G1	15:15 15:07	45:12	Show details Prediction details: Fabian Schönke Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 21–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -4.2 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 45.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.67 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Total: 45:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 17.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 28	Eric Diener GER	+34 s +26 s	G2 / G1	15:55 14:27	45:12	Show details Prediction details: Eric Diener Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 37–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 7.8 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.59 km/h Running and total Run: 15:55 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:27 (2:58 / km) Error: +1:28 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 45:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:55 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 14.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 50	Hidde Mollee NED	+30 s +22 s	G2 / G1	15:57 15:48	45:14	Show details Prediction details: Hidde Mollee Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 33–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 7.6 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h Running and total Run: 15:57 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 15:57 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 10.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 4	Michael Gar GBR	+24 s +0 s	G2 / G1	16:07 13:42	45:24	Show details Prediction details: Michael Gar Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 36–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: 37 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 23.5 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:42 (2:49 / km) Error: +2:25 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: 45:24 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 16:07 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 4.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 44	Pavel Sorokin AIN	+16 s +14 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:33 15:11	45:26	Show details Prediction details: Pavel Sorokin Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 38–53 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 1.6 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h Running and total Run: 16:33 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:11 (3:07 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 45:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:33 (3:24 / km) Total: 45:26
43 / 27	Adrien Deharre BEL	+37 s +17 s	G3 / G1	15:31 14:20	45:28	Show details Prediction details: Adrien Deharre Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 30–50 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 20.1 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.93 km/h Running and total Run: 15:31 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:20 (2:57 / km) Error: +1:11 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 45:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:31 (3:11 / km) Total: 45:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 18.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 41	Enes Kizilcik TUR	+28 s +18 s	G2 / G1	16:17 14:55	45:34	Show details Prediction details: Enes Kizilcik Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 33–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:17 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (3:04 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 45:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 16:17 (3:21 / km) Total: 45:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 39	Ben Fäh SUI	+13 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:41 14:51	45:34	Show details Prediction details: Ben Fäh Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 25–61 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 39 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 10.1 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.55 km/h Running and total Run: 16:41 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (3:03 / km) Error: +1:50 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 45:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:41 (3:26 / km) Total: 45:34
46 / 33	Niels Van Lanen NED	+36 s +13 s	G3 / G1	15:42 14:42	45:39	Show details Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 12–59 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 33 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 22.7 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.82 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (3:01 / km) Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 45:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Total: 45:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 16.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 26	Pierre Moraz SUI	+43 s +22 s	G3 / G1	15:42 14:23	45:39	Show details Prediction details: Pierre Moraz Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 41–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 20.8 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.09 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (2:58 / km) Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 45:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:14 / km) Total: 45:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 23.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 32	Jack Stanton-Stock GBR	+51 s +27 s	G4 / G1	15:08 14:39	45:40	Show details Prediction details: Jack Stanton-Stock Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 31–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 23.6 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h Running and total Run: 15:08 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:39 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 45:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.8 km/h) Run: 15:08 (3:07 / km) Total: 45:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 31.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 59	Moritz Göttler GER	+56 s +29 s	G4 / G2	15:15 16:33	45:47	Show details Prediction details: Moritz Göttler Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 32–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 26.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 8.0 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.12 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 45:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.8 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Total: 45:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 36.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 35	Gabriel Barac CRO	+46 s +25 s	G3 / G1	15:52 14:43	45:49	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Barac Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 39–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 21.3 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h Running and total Run: 15:52 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (3:02 / km) Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 45:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:52 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 27.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 29	Hugo Philippe BEL	+45 s +29 s	G3 / G1	15:55 14:26	45:52	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Philippe Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 36–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: 22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 15.9 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h Running and total Run: 15:55 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:26 (2:58 / km) Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 45:52 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:55 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 26 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 53	Jakub Suchan POL	+37 s +36 s	G3 / G2	16:07 15:50	46:04	Show details Prediction details: Jakub Suchan Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 38–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 0.7 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.58 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 54 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:07 (3:19 / km) Total: 46:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 17.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 64	David Vollmann AUT	+46 s +32 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:14 16:39	46:11	Show details Prediction details: David Vollmann Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 37–64 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 64 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 16:14 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 46:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:14 (3:20 / km) Total: 46:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 27.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 65	Alexandre Leblanc CAN	+45 s +36 s	G3 / G4	16:15 16:34	46:12	Show details Prediction details: Alexandre Leblanc Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 36–64 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 65 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 46:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:15 (3:21 / km) Total: 46:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 25.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 54	Brody Kapeller AUT	+50 s +35 s	G4 / G2	15:49 16:15	46:21	Show details Prediction details: Brody Kapeller Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 47–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.22 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 46:21 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.8 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:15 / km) Total: 46:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 30.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 52	Daniil Babanschi MDA	+27 s +14 s	G2 / G1	17:05 15:47	46:22	Show details Prediction details: Daniil Babanschi Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 52–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 12.8 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 17:05 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:15 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 46:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 17:05 (3:31 / km) Total: 46:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 7.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 55	Mikita Katsianeu BLR	+43 s +30 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:26 15:00	46:23	Show details Prediction details: Mikita Katsianeu Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 44–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 13.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 16:26 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:05 / km) Error: +1:26 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 46:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:26 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 24.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 46	Linus Lehnen GER	+42 s +26 s	G3 / G1	16:28 15:15	46:25	Show details Prediction details: Linus Lehnen Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 48–63 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 46 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 16.2 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h Running and total Run: 16:28 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:08 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:28 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 23.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 67	Fedir Bezlepkin UKR	+33 s +39 s	G2 / G6	17:28 17:26	46:45	Show details Prediction details: Fedir Bezlepkin Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 47–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 67 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.41 km/h Running and total Run: 17:28 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:35 / km) Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 46:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 17:28 (3:36 / km) Total: 46:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 13.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 57	Luke McCarron IRL	+34 s +40 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:04 15:05	47:01	Show details Prediction details: Luke McCarron Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 22–64 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 57 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -5.8 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.62 km/h Running and total Run: 17:04 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 98 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:06 / km) Error: +1:59 / +0:24 / km Overall prediction: 47:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 17:04 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 15.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 61	Till Clijsen SUI	+40 s +37 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:05 16:05	47:02	Show details Prediction details: Till Clijsen Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 53–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 3.3 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h Running and total Run: 17:05 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:19 / km) Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 47:02 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 17:05 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 21.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 51	Boris Andreev BUL	+40 s +23 s	G3 / G1	17:16 15:51	47:13	Show details Prediction details: Boris Andreev Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 53–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 16.5 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.18 km/h Running and total Run: 17:16 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:16 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 47:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: 17:16 (3:33 / km) Total: 47:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 20.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 36	Roman Leonov AIN	+23 s +26 s	G2 / G1	18:13 14:51	47:30	Show details Prediction details: Roman Leonov Placement Prediction: 63 80% range: 59–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: 27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -3.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (32 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 42.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.64 km/h Running and total Run: 18:13 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (3:03 / km) Error: +3:22 / +0:42 / km Overall prediction: 47:30 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (42.0 km/h) Run: 18:13 (3:45 / km) Total: 47:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 4.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 58	Neal Van Vaerenbergh BEL	+64 s +62 s	G5 / G3	16:47 15:13	48:42	Show details Prediction details: Neal Van Vaerenbergh Placement Prediction: 64 80% range: 56–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 9:42 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: 1.7 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 86 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.0 s Gap behind: 7.0 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.66 km/h Running and total Run: 16:47 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 70 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:08 / km) Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 48:42 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (39.1 km/h) Run: 16:47 (3:27 / km) Total: 48:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 44.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
65 / 66	Mathias Amtoft Brødsgaard DEN	+71 s +62 s	G6 / G5	20:28 16:18	54:43	Show details Prediction details: Mathias Amtoft Brødsgaard Placement Prediction: 65 80% range: 67–67 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 66 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h Running and total Run: 20:28 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:21 / km) Error: +4:10 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 54:43 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:04 (36.5 km/h) Run: 20:28 (4:13 / km) Total: 54:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 51.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Basile Fouchard FRA	+5 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	13:34		Show details Prediction details: Basile Fouchard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 8:43 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 13:34 (2:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:34 (42.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 49	Péter Daróczi HUN	+47 s +27 s	G3 / G1	15:27		Show details Prediction details: Péter Daróczi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 49 Deviation: -49 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 20.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 1 (53 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (41.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 28.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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