Prediction comparison

Elite Men

11.05.2024 Caorle ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.05.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 63/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 86.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 98.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error13.4

Mean swim error10.7 s

Mean bike-speed error0.95 km/h

Correct bike groups24/68

No history0

Within the 80% range54.4 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 13	Cameron Main GBR	+22 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:14 14:38	38:11	Show details Prediction details: Cameron Main Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–15 Top-10 probability: 73 % Result: 13 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 8:36 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 10.3 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h Running and total Run: 11:14 (2:57 / km) Historical basis: 2:56 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (3:51 / km) Error: −3:24 / −0:54 / km Overall prediction: 38:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:14 (2:57 / km) Total: 38:11
2 / 2	Jules Rethoret FRA	+22 s +21 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:16 14:01	38:13	Show details Prediction details: Jules Rethoret Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–16 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 8:36 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 1.1 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 11:16 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:00 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:01 (3:41 / km) Error: −2:45 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 38:13 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:16 (2:58 / km) Total: 38:13
3 / 19	Tom Lerno FRA	+18 s +18 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:20 14:42	38:17	Show details Prediction details: Tom Lerno Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 6–15 Top-10 probability: 58 % Result: 19 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 8:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 0.2 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h Running and total Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (3:52 / km) Error: −3:22 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 38:17 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Total: 38:17
4 / 1	Alessio Crociani ITA	+32 s +2 s	G2 / G1	11:00 14:05	38:18	Show details Prediction details: Alessio Crociani Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–21 Top-10 probability: 69 % Result: 1 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 8:46 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 30.0 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h Running and total Run: 11:00 (2:54 / km) Historical basis: 2:56 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:05 (3:42 / km) Error: −3:05 / −0:49 / km Overall prediction: 38:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:00 (2:54 / km) Total: 38:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 2.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10	Samuele Angelini ITA	+35 s +28 s	G2 / G1	11:03 14:21	38:21	Show details Prediction details: Samuele Angelini Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–23 Top-10 probability: 58 % Result: 10 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.11 km/h Running and total Run: 11:03 (2:54 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:21 (3:47 / km) Error: −3:18 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: 38:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:03 (2:54 / km) Total: 38:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 4.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 20	Sergiy Polikarpenko ITA	+39 s +34 s	G2 / G2 correct	11:05 14:37	38:23	Show details Prediction details: Sergiy Polikarpenko Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–23 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 20 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 8:53 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 4.5 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 11:05 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (3:51 / km) Error: −3:32 / −0:56 / km Overall prediction: 38:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:05 (2:55 / km) Total: 38:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 8.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 23	Gergely Kiss HUN	+16 s +26 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:27 14:35	38:24	Show details Prediction details: Gergely Kiss Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–25 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 23 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:30 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -9.6 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 11:27 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (3:50 / km) Error: −3:08 / −0:50 / km Overall prediction: 38:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:30 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:27 (3:01 / km) Total: 38:24
8 / 17	Delian Stateff ITA	+24 s +18 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:29 14:43	38:26	Show details Prediction details: Delian Stateff Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–23 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 17 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 8:38 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 5.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h Running and total Run: 11:29 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (3:52 / km) Error: −3:14 / −0:51 / km Overall prediction: 38:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:38 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:29 (3:01 / km) Total: 38:26
9 / 7	Nicola Azzano ITA	+25 s +21 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:29 14:13	38:26	Show details Prediction details: Nicola Azzano Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 4–37 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 7 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 8:39 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 4.3 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h Running and total Run: 11:29 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:13 (3:44 / km) Error: −2:44 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 38:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:29 (3:01 / km) Total: 38:26
10 / 30	Gjalt Panjer NED	+25 s +28 s	G1 / G2	11:32 15:02	38:29	Show details Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 11–25 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 30 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 8:39 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -3.0 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 59 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 11:32 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:57 / km) Error: −3:30 / −0:55 / km Overall prediction: 38:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:32 (3:02 / km) Total: 38:29
11 / 16	Marcus Dey GBR	+11 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:38 14:44	38:35	Show details Prediction details: Marcus Dey Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 4–34 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 16 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 8:25 Pace: 1:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 10.9 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.9 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (3:53 / km) Error: −3:06 / −0:49 / km Overall prediction: 38:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:25 (1:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Total: 38:35
12 / 35	Gaspard Tharreau FRA	+25 s +18 s	G1 / G2	11:38 15:30	38:35	Show details Prediction details: Gaspard Tharreau Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 12–34 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 35 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 8:39 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 7.2 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (4:05 / km) Error: −3:52 / −1:01 / km Overall prediction: 38:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Total: 38:35
13 / 14	Till Kramp GER	+34 s +27 s	G2 / G1	11:19 14:37	38:37	Show details Prediction details: Till Kramp Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 8–28 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 14 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 7.2 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 11:19 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (3:51 / km) Error: −3:18 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: 38:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:19 (2:59 / km) Total: 38:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 4.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 53	Hayden Woodrow CAN	+16 s +24 s	G1 / G4	11:40 15:29	38:37	Show details Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 4–41 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 53 Deviation: -39 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:30 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: -8.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h Running and total Run: 11:40 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (4:04 / km) Error: −3:49 / −1:00 / km Overall prediction: 38:37 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 8:30 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:40 (3:04 / km) Total: 38:37
15 / 4	Daniel Damian CAN	+37 s +21 s	G2 / G1	11:20 14:04	38:38	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Damian Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 3–33 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 4 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 15.5 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h Running and total Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 90 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:04 (3:42 / km) Error: −2:44 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 38:38 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Total: 38:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 6.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 28	Davide Ingrilli ITA	+26 s +15 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:46 15:08	38:43	Show details Prediction details: Davide Ingrilli Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 8:40 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 10.8 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 63 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h Running and total Run: 11:46 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:59 / km) Error: −3:22 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 38:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:46 (3:06 / km) Total: 38:43
17 / 6	Guillaume Hay FRA	+38 s +29 s	G2 / G1	11:26 14:15	38:44	Show details Prediction details: Guillaume Hay Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 8–41 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 6 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 8:52 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 8.8 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 11:26 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:15 (3:45 / km) Error: −2:49 / −0:45 / km Overall prediction: 38:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:26 (3:00 / km) Total: 38:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 31	Jan Bader AUT	+40 s +51 s	G2 / G3	11:26 14:35	38:44	Show details Prediction details: Jan Bader Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 11–51 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 31 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: -10.9 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h Running and total Run: 11:26 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (3:50 / km) Error: −3:09 / −0:50 / km Overall prediction: 38:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:26 (3:01 / km) Total: 38:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 10.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 41	Miguel Espuna Larramona ITA	+25 s +42 s	G1 / G3	11:49 15:10	38:46	Show details Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 12–45 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 41 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 8:39 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -16.6 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 11:49 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:59 / km) Error: −3:21 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 38:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:49 (3:07 / km) Total: 38:46
20 / 58	Tuur Lemmens BEL	+25 s +22 s	G1 / G5	11:52 15:49	38:49	Show details Prediction details: Tuur Lemmens Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 18–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 8:39 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 2.8 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.47 km/h Running and total Run: 11:52 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (4:10 / km) Error: −3:57 / −1:02 / km Overall prediction: 38:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:52 (3:07 / km) Total: 38:49
21 / 65	Benedikt Bettin GER	+34 s +32 s	G2 / G4	11:32 18:56	38:50	Show details Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 4–42 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 65 Deviation: -44 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 11:32 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (4:59 / km) Error: −7:24 / −1:57 / km Overall prediction: 38:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:32 (3:02 / km) Total: 38:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 4.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 9	Eric Diener GER	+35 s +34 s	G2 / G1	11:33 14:15	38:51	Show details Prediction details: Eric Diener Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 8–50 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 9 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 0.5 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h Running and total Run: 11:33 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:15 (3:45 / km) Error: −2:42 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 38:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:33 (3:02 / km) Total: 38:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 4.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 21	Gergő Dobi HUN	+17 s +26 s	G1 / G2	11:54 14:38	38:51	Show details Prediction details: Gergő Dobi Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 6–42 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 21 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:31 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -9.5 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h Running and total Run: 11:54 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (3:51 / km) Error: −2:44 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 38:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:54 (3:08 / km) Total: 38:51
24 / 29	Pablo Isotton FRA	+24 s +21 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:57 15:16	38:54	Show details Prediction details: Pablo Isotton Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 6–45 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 29 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 8:38 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 2.8 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h Running and total Run: 11:57 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (4:01 / km) Error: −3:19 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: 38:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:38 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:57 (3:09 / km) Total: 38:54
25 / 8	Euan De Nigro ITA	+34 s +18 s	G2 / G1	11:38 14:14	38:56	Show details Prediction details: Euan De Nigro Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 6–42 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 8 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 15.9 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (3:45 / km) Error: −2:36 / −0:41 / km Overall prediction: 38:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:38 (3:04 / km) Total: 38:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 4.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 44	Ben Fäh SUI	+26 s +11 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:59 16:05	38:56	Show details Prediction details: Ben Fäh Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 19–36 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 44 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 8:40 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 14.7 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h Running and total Run: 11:59 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (4:14 / km) Error: −4:06 / −1:05 / km Overall prediction: 38:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 11:59 (3:09 / km) Total: 38:56
27 / 12	Maxime Fluri SUI	+54 s +39 s	G3 / G1	11:07 14:22	39:09	Show details Prediction details: Maxime Fluri Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 12–53 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 12 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.13 km/h Running and total Run: 11:07 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (3:47 / km) Error: −3:15 / −0:51 / km Overall prediction: 39:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:07 (2:55 / km) Total: 39:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 24.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 51	Justus Töpper GER	+44 s +40 s	G2 / G2 correct	11:52 16:43	39:10	Show details Prediction details: Justus Töpper Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 27–53 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h Running and total Run: 11:52 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (4:24 / km) Error: −4:51 / −1:17 / km Overall prediction: 39:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:52 (3:07 / km) Total: 39:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 14.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 36	Zsombor Dévay HUN	+43 s +40 s	G2 / G3	11:53 14:47	39:11	Show details Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 18–59 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 36 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h Running and total Run: 11:53 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (3:53 / km) Error: −2:54 / −0:46 / km Overall prediction: 39:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:53 (3:08 / km) Total: 39:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:43 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 13.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 22	Michael Ziegler SUI	+37 s +37 s	G2 / G2 correct	11:54 14:38	39:12	Show details Prediction details: Michael Ziegler Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 5–58 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 22 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -0.4 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h Running and total Run: 11:54 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (3:51 / km) Error: −2:44 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 39:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 11:54 (3:08 / km) Total: 39:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 6.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 15	Peter Luftensteiner AUT	+39 s +37 s	G2 / G1	12:03 14:35	39:21	Show details Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 19–61 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 15 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 8:53 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 1.5 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 12:03 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (3:50 / km) Error: −2:32 / −0:40 / km Overall prediction: 39:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:03 (3:10 / km) Total: 39:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 8.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 11	Pietro Giovannini ITA	+16 s +13 s	G1 / G1 correct	12:24 14:26	39:21	Show details Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 26–49 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 11 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 8:30 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 12:24 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:26 (3:48 / km) Error: −2:02 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 39:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:30 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 12:24 (3:16 / km) Total: 39:21
33 / 45	Malte Kreibich GER	+46 s +35 s	G3 / G2	11:20 16:01	39:22	Show details Prediction details: Malte Kreibich Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 17–38 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 45 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 10.5 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 75 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (4:13 / km) Error: −4:41 / −1:14 / km Overall prediction: 39:22 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Total: 39:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 15.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 5	Lukas Pertl AUT	+53 s +28 s	G3 / G1	11:20 14:11	39:22	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Pertl Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 21–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: 29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 25.1 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 (3:44 / km) Error: −2:51 / −0:45 / km Overall prediction: 39:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:20 (2:59 / km) Total: 39:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 23.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 3	Nathan Grayel FRA	+47 s +39 s	G3 / G1	11:24 14:00	39:26	Show details Prediction details: Nathan Grayel Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 17–43 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 3 Deviation: 32 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 7.8 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 11:24 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:00 (3:41 / km) Error: −2:36 / −0:41 / km Overall prediction: 39:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:24 (3:00 / km) Total: 39:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 17 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 37	Matteo Carlo Perri ITA	+57 s +40 s	G3 / G3 correct	11:25 14:47	39:27	Show details Prediction details: Matteo Carlo Perri Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 27–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h Running and total Run: 11:25 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (3:53 / km) Error: −3:22 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 39:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:25 (3:00 / km) Total: 39:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 27.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 18	Gyula Kovács HUN	+23 s +38 s	G1 / G1 correct	12:31 14:46	39:28	Show details Prediction details: Gyula Kovács Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 22–53 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 18 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 8:37 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -14.6 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h Running and total Run: 12:31 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 78 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (3:53 / km) Error: −2:15 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 39:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:37 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 12:31 (3:18 / km) Total: 39:28
38 / 24	Lachlan Haycock NZL	+44 s +22 s	G2 / G1	12:12 14:50	39:30	Show details Prediction details: Lachlan Haycock Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 28–62 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 24 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 21.8 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h Running and total Run: 12:12 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:50 (3:54 / km) Error: −2:38 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 39:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:12 (3:13 / km) Total: 39:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 14 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 56	Thomas Windischbauer AUT	+21 s +53 s	G1 / G5	12:34 15:24	39:31	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 32–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 8:35 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -32.0 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 1.85 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.96 km/h Running and total Run: 12:34 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 92 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (4:03 / km) Error: −2:50 / −0:45 / km Overall prediction: 39:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:35 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 12:34 (3:18 / km) Total: 39:31
40 / 25	Sasha Caterina SUI	+38 s +24 s	G2 / G1	12:14 14:53	39:32	Show details Prediction details: Sasha Caterina Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 34–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 8:52 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 13.9 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h Running and total Run: 12:14 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (3:55 / km) Error: −2:39 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 39:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:14 (3:13 / km) Total: 39:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 8.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 34	Adrien Deharre BEL	+47 s +40 s	G3 / G3 correct	11:31 14:41	39:33	Show details Prediction details: Adrien Deharre Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 15–48 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 34 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 6.9 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h Running and total Run: 11:31 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:41 (3:52 / km) Error: −3:10 / −0:50 / km Overall prediction: 39:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:31 (3:02 / km) Total: 39:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
42 / 26	Fabian Schönke GER	+50 s +36 s	G3 / G2	11:34 14:50	39:36	Show details Prediction details: Fabian Schönke Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 8–54 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 26 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 13.9 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 11:34 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:50 (3:54 / km) Error: −3:16 / −0:51 / km Overall prediction: 39:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:34 (3:03 / km) Total: 39:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 20.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 46	Gergő Gyula Soós HUN	+19 s +20 s	G1 / G2	12:40 16:02	39:37	Show details Prediction details: Gergő Gyula Soós Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 27–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 8:33 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -1.2 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h Running and total Run: 12:40 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (4:13 / km) Error: −3:22 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 39:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:33 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 12:40 (3:20 / km) Total: 39:37
44 / 38	Veikka Saren FIN	+50 s +38 s	G3 / G3 correct	11:36 14:54	39:38	Show details Prediction details: Veikka Saren Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 20–61 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 38 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 12.2 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h Running and total Run: 11:36 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 95 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (3:55 / km) Error: −3:18 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: 39:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:36 (3:03 / km) Total: 39:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 20.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 47	Neilan Kempmann GER	+42 s +44 s	G2 / G3	12:26 15:19	39:44	Show details Prediction details: Neilan Kempmann Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 37–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -2.3 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 12:26 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (4:02 / km) Error: −2:53 / −0:46 / km Overall prediction: 39:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:26 (3:16 / km) Total: 39:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 11.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 42	Marco Arnaudo ITA	+49 s +23 s	G3 / G1	11:43 15:58	39:45	Show details Prediction details: Marco Arnaudo Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 31–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 25.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 78 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h Running and total Run: 11:43 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 55 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (4:12 / km) Error: −4:15 / −1:07 / km Overall prediction: 39:45 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:43 (3:05 / km) Total: 39:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 18.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 43	Thomas Hansmaennel FRA	+50 s +32 s	G3 / G2	11:48 15:57	39:50	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Hansmaennel Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 22–60 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 43 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 18.4 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h Running and total Run: 11:48 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 90 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (4:12 / km) Error: −4:09 / −1:05 / km Overall prediction: 39:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:48 (3:06 / km) Total: 39:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:43 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 20.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 27	Balte Thijs BEL	+48 s +35 s	G3 / G1	11:51 14:56	39:53	Show details Prediction details: Balte Thijs Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 33–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 12.5 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.02 km/h Running and total Run: 11:51 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (3:56 / km) Error: −3:05 / −0:49 / km Overall prediction: 39:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:51 (3:07 / km) Total: 39:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 17.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 59	Gabriel Barac CRO	+46 s +46 s	G3 / G5	11:56 15:47	39:58	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Barac Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 28–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.14 km/h Running and total Run: 11:56 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (4:09 / km) Error: −3:51 / −1:01 / km Overall prediction: 39:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 11:56 (3:08 / km) Total: 39:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 33	Niklas Keller AUT	+46 s +52 s	G3 / G3 correct	12:02 14:42	40:04	Show details Prediction details: Niklas Keller Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 32–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -6.0 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 12:02 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (3:52 / km) Error: −2:40 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 40:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:02 (3:10 / km) Total: 40:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 49	Noah Künz AUT	+41 s +34 s	G2 / G2 correct	12:47 16:20	40:05	Show details Prediction details: Noah Künz Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 30–63 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 49 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 7.4 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h Running and total Run: 12:47 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (4:18 / km) Error: −3:33 / −0:56 / km Overall prediction: 40:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:47 (3:22 / km) Total: 40:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:43 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 32	José Ramón Jímenez Blazquez ESP	+31 s +42 s	G2 / G1	12:50 15:30	40:08	Show details Prediction details: José Ramón Jímenez Blazquez Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 44–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 8:45 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -11.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (29 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h Running and total Run: 12:50 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (4:05 / km) Error: −2:40 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 40:08 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 12:50 (3:23 / km) Total: 40:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 0.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 66	Linus Lehnen GER	+49 s +41 s	G3 / G3 correct	12:07 20:09	40:09	Show details Prediction details: Linus Lehnen Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 31–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 66 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 7.7 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h Running and total Run: 12:07 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 1:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (5:18 / km) Error: −8:02 / −2:07 / km Overall prediction: 40:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:07 (3:11 / km) Total: 40:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 18.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 61	Henrik Hodne Eliassen NOR	+57 s +43 s	G3 / G5	12:09 16:07	40:11	Show details Prediction details: Henrik Hodne Eliassen Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 49–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 14.2 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 12.9 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.14 km/h Running and total Run: 12:09 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (4:14 / km) Error: −3:58 / −1:03 / km Overall prediction: 40:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:09 (3:12 / km) Total: 40:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 27.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 52	Maayan Glantz ISR	+45 s +33 s	G3 / G3 correct	12:12 16:11	40:14	Show details Prediction details: Maayan Glantz Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 35–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 8:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 12.4 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 12:12 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (4:16 / km) Error: −3:59 / −1:03 / km Overall prediction: 40:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:12 (3:13 / km) Total: 40:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:43 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 15.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 63	David Vollmann AUT	+56 s +55 s	G3 / G5	12:13 17:03	40:15	Show details Prediction details: David Vollmann Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 47–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 0.6 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h Running and total Run: 12:13 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (4:29 / km) Error: −4:50 / −1:16 / km Overall prediction: 40:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:13 (3:13 / km) Total: 40:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 25.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 67	Carl August Jensehaugen NOR	+57 s +68 s	G3 / G6	12:14 16:26	40:16	Show details Prediction details: Carl August Jensehaugen Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 42–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 67 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -11.2 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h Running and total Run: 12:14 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (4:19 / km) Error: −4:12 / −1:06 / km Overall prediction: 40:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:14 (3:13 / km) Total: 40:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 27 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 62	Julian Piller AUT	+26 s +38 s	G1 / G5	13:24 16:47	40:21	Show details Prediction details: Julian Piller Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 33–65 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 62 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 8:40 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -12.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.27 km/h Running and total Run: 13:24 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (4:25 / km) Error: −3:23 / −0:53 / km Overall prediction: 40:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: 13:24 (3:32 / km) Total: 40:21
59 / 60	Zalán Hóbor HUN	+46 s +0 s	G3 / G2	12:27 18:01	40:29	Show details Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 46–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 46.0 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 12:27 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (4:44 / km) Error: −5:34 / −1:28 / km Overall prediction: 40:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:27 (3:17 / km) Total: 40:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 55	Wout Ghielens BEL	+55 s +54 s	G3 / G5	12:41 15:08	40:43	Show details Prediction details: Wout Ghielens Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 52–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: 1.3 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.04 km/h Running and total Run: 12:41 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:59 / km) Error: −2:27 / −0:39 / km Overall prediction: 40:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 12:41 (3:20 / km) Total: 40:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 25.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 40	Lucas Cambresy LUX	+45 s +40 s	G3 / G3 correct	13:05 15:01	41:07	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 41–66 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 40 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 8:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h Running and total Run: 13:05 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 81 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:57 / km) Error: −1:56 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: 41:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 13:05 (3:26 / km) Total: 41:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 15.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 64	Paul Frayon SWE	+46 s +34 s	G3 / G5	13:14 17:19	41:16	Show details Prediction details: Paul Frayon Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 42–67 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 64 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 12.1 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 72 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h Running and total Run: 13:14 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 54 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (4:33 / km) Error: −4:05 / −1:04 / km Overall prediction: 41:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 13:14 (3:29 / km) Total: 41:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 16.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 48	Oscar Lilja SWE	+43 s +48 s	G2 / G3	14:02 15:33	41:20	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Lilja Placement Prediction: 63 80% range: 62–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -5.5 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 14:02 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -1.76 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (4:06 / km) Error: −1:31 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 41:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 14:02 (3:42 / km) Total: 41:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 57	Alexandre Alvarez Ferreira ESP	+44 s +43 s	G2 / G5	14:25 15:39	41:43	Show details Prediction details: Alexandre Alvarez Ferreira Placement Prediction: 64 80% range: 59–68 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 57 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 1.3 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.08 km/h Running and total Run: 14:25 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (4:07 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 41:43 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: 14:25 (3:48 / km) Total: 41:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 14.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
65 / 68	Boris Andreev BUL	+48 s +35 s	G3 / G6	14:31 18:10	42:33	Show details Prediction details: Boris Andreev Placement Prediction: 65 80% range: 63–68 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 68 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 12.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.07 km/h Running and total Run: 14:31 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.51 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (4:47 / km) Error: −3:39 / −0:58 / km Overall prediction: 42:33 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (42.5 km/h) Run: 14:31 (3:49 / km) Total: 42:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 18.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
66 / 54	Vegard Horgen NOR	+70 s +42 s	G4 / G3	13:29 16:28	43:51	Show details Prediction details: Vegard Horgen Placement Prediction: 66 80% range: 65–68 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 28.1 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.89 km/h Running and total Run: 13:29 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (4:20 / km) Error: −2:59 / −0:47 / km Overall prediction: 43:51 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:12 (39.5 km/h) Run: 13:29 (3:33 / km) Total: 43:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 40.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 39	Luca Bruni ITA	+43 s +37 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:46		Show details Prediction details: Luca Bruni Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 39 Deviation: -39 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 6.1 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:34 (43.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m About 13.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 50	Federico Murero ITA	+0 s +43 s	G1 / G3	15:58		Show details Prediction details: Federico Murero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 50 Deviation: -50 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:14 Pace: 1:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -43.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.9 s Result: Group 3 (14 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (4:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 8:14 (1:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:31 (43.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

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