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Elite Women

11.05.2024 Caorle ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.05.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 81.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.8
Mean swim error12.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.11 km/h
Correct bike groups14/51
No history4
Within the 80% range41.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 17 Candice Denizot
FRA
+14 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		12:55
17:08
 42:36
Show details
Prediction details: Candice Denizot

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:55 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (4:31 / km)
Error: −4:13 / −1:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 12:55 (3:24 / km)
Total: 42:36
2 / 27 Carlotta Bonacina
ITA
+10 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		12:56
18:05
 42:37
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -19.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:56 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (4:46 / km)
Error: −5:09 / −1:21 / km
Overall prediction: 42:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 12:56 (3:24 / km)
Total: 42:37
3 / 8 Anabel Knoll
GER
+23 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:05
16:47
 42:46
Show details
Prediction details: Anabel Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:05 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (4:25 / km)
Error: −3:42 / −0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 42:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:05 (3:27 / km)
Total: 42:46
4 / 4 Lea Coninx
FRA
+30 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 12:58
16:22
 42:55
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:58 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (4:18 / km)
Error: −3:24 / −0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 42:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 12:58 (3:25 / km)
Total: 42:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Kristelle Congi
FRA
+29 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 13:05
16:41
 43:02
Show details
Prediction details: Kristelle Congi

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:05 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (4:23 / km)
Error: −3:36 / −0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 43:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:05 (3:27 / km)
Total: 43:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 38 Sophia Green
GBR
+11 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:25
19:45
 43:06
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Green

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:25 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (5:12 / km)
Error: −6:20 / −1:40 / km
Overall prediction: 43:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:25 (3:32 / km)
Total: 43:06
7 / 3 Robin Dreijling
NED
+14 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:28
16:19
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:28 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (4:18 / km)
Error: −2:51 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:28 (3:33 / km)
Total: 43:09
8 / 36 Leann Dietzel
GER
+36 s
+29 s
G2 / G4
 13:16
17:53
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Leann Dietzel

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–34
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:16 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (4:42 / km)
Error: −4:37 / −1:13 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:16 (3:29 / km)
Total: 43:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 39 Marie Wattiez
FRA
+36 s
+26 s
G2 / G4
 13:19
17:52
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marie Wattiez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:19 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (4:42 / km)
Error: −4:33 / −1:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:19 (3:30 / km)
Total: 43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 28 Tara Sosinski
AUS
+23 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:35
18:03
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Tara Sosinski

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–30
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:35 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (4:45 / km)
Error: −4:28 / −1:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:35 (3:34 / km)
Total: 43:16
11 / 9 Celia Merle
FRA
+16 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:37
16:42
 43:18
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:37 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (4:24 / km)
Error: −3:05 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 43:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:37 (3:35 / km)
Total: 43:18
12 / 1 Alissa Konig
SUI
+39 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 13:22
15:44
 43:19
Show details
Prediction details: Alissa Konig

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:22 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (4:08 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 43:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:22 (3:31 / km)
Total: 43:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 5 Carlotta Missaglia
ITA
+26 s
+23 s
G2 / G1
 13:32
16:39
 43:29
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Missaglia

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 4–35
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:32 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (4:23 / km)
Error: −3:07 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 43:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:32 (3:34 / km)
Total: 43:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Luna De Bruin
NED
+21 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:48
16:54
 43:29
Show details
Prediction details: Luna De Bruin

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–32
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:48 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (4:27 / km)
Error: −3:06 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 43:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:48 (3:38 / km)
Total: 43:29
15 / 2 Franka Rust
GER
+52 s
+22 s
G3 / G1
 13:01
16:11
 43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 6–34
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 29.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:01 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (4:16 / km)
Error: −3:10 / −0:50 / km
Overall prediction: 43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:01 (3:26 / km)
Total: 43:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 28.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 29 Katharina Möller
GER
+28 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 13:36
18:12
 43:33
Show details
Prediction details: Katharina Möller

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 4–45
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:36 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (4:47 / km)
Error: −4:36 / −1:13 / km
Overall prediction: 43:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:36 (3:35 / km)
Total: 43:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19 Bethany Cook
GBR
+22 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 13:55
16:45
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Bethany Cook

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–38
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:55 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:50 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:55 (3:40 / km)
Total: 43:36
18 / 20 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+27 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 13:41
17:20
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 3–42
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:41 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (4:34 / km)
Error: −3:39 / −0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:41 (3:36 / km)
Total: 43:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 13 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+22 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:58
16:56
 43:39
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:58 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (4:27 / km)
Error: −2:58 / −0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 43:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:58 (3:40 / km)
Total: 43:39
20 / 10 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+39 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 13:50
16:43
 43:47
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:50 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:53 / −0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 43:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:50 (3:38 / km)
Total: 43:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30 Sofía Aguayo Mauri
ESP
+33 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 13:51
18:19
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Sofía Aguayo Mauri

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–35
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:51 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (4:49 / km)
Error: −4:28 / −1:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:51 (3:39 / km)
Total: 43:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 16 Katrien Maes
BEL
+30 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 13:52
16:56
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 14–35
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:52 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (4:27 / km)
Error: −3:04 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 13:52 (3:39 / km)
Total: 43:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 26 Aviv Levi
ISR
+11 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:10
17:48
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Aviv Levi

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 10–41
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -13.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:10 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (4:41 / km)
Error: −3:38 / −0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:10 (3:44 / km)
Total: 43:51
24 / 24 Asia Mercatelli
ITA
+55 s
+20 s
G3 / G1
 13:22
17:28
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: Asia Mercatelli

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–41
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 35.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:22 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (4:36 / km)
Error: −4:06 / −1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:22 (3:31 / km)
Total: 43:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 48 Gemma Frigola García
ESP
+50 s
+61 s
G3 / G7
 13:23
17:37
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Frigola García

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 17–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:23 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (4:38 / km)
Error: −4:14 / −1:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:23 (3:31 / km)
Total: 43:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 15 Julia Bröcker
GER
+45 s
+30 s
G3 / G1
 13:30
17:04
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 13–39
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:30 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (4:29 / km)
Error: −3:34 / −0:56 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:30 (3:33 / km)
Total: 44:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 42 Tünde Bukovszki
HUN
+41 s
+52 s
G3 / G6
 13:32
17:00
 44:02
Show details
Prediction details: Tünde Bukovszki

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 11–34
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -10.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:32 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (4:28 / km)
Error: −3:28 / −0:55 / km
Overall prediction: 44:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:32 (3:34 / km)
Total: 44:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 17.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 18 Hasse Fleerackers
BEL
+27 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 14:05
17:02
 44:02
Show details
Prediction details: Hasse Fleerackers

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 15–42
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:05 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (4:29 / km)
Error: −2:57 / −0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 44:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:05 (3:42 / km)
Total: 44:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 7 Alessia Orla
ITA
+18 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:24
16:45
 44:05
Show details
Prediction details: Alessia Orla

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 24–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:24 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:21 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 44:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:24 (3:47 / km)
Total: 44:05
30 / 25 Nele Dequae
BEL
+43 s
+33 s
G3 / G1
 13:42
17:48
 44:12
Show details
Prediction details: Nele Dequae

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 14–39
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:42 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (4:41 / km)
Error: −4:06 / −1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:42 (3:36 / km)
Total: 44:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 44 Marion Latil
FRA
+46 s
+48 s
G3 / G5
 13:45
17:45
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Marion Latil

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 20–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.86 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:45 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (4:40 / km)
Error: −4:00 / −1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:45 (3:37 / km)
Total: 44:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 11 Francesca Crestani
ITA
+54 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 13:45
16:48
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Francesca Crestani

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 23–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 28.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:45 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (4:25 / km)
Error: −3:03 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:45 (3:37 / km)
Total: 44:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 30.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 21 Tabea Huys
AUT
+15 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:39
17:28
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: Tabea Huys

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 28–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (4:36 / km)
Error: −2:49 / −0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (3:51 / km)
Total: 44:20
34 / 54 Carina Reicht
AUT
+62 s
+64 s
G4 / G8
 12:32
18:21
 44:21
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Reicht

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 6–43
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -1.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (4:50 / km)
Error: −5:49 / −1:32 / km
Overall prediction: 44:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:35 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 12:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 44:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 38.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 35 Johanna Uherek
GER
+29 s
+26 s
G2 / G4
 14:25
17:41
 44:22
Show details
Prediction details: Johanna Uherek

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 28–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:25 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (4:39 / km)
Error: −3:16 / −0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 44:22
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:25 (3:48 / km)
Total: 44:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 14 Matilde Locatelli
ITA
+31 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 14:30
16:57
 44:27
Show details
Prediction details: Matilde Locatelli

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 28–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:30 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (4:28 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 44:27
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:30 (3:49 / km)
Total: 44:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 23 Alzbeta Hruskova
CZE
+50 s
+23 s
G3 / G1
 13:59
17:23
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Alzbeta Hruskova

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 15–48
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 27.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:59 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (4:34 / km)
Error: −3:24 / −0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:59 (3:41 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 49 Isabel Sterr
GER
+40 s
+43 s
G3 / G6
 14:01
18:39
 44:31
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Sterr

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 22–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:01 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (4:54 / km)
Error: −4:38 / −1:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:01 (3:41 / km)
Total: 44:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 50 Rachele Laschi
ITA
+40 s
+28 s
G3 / G5
 14:15
19:08
 44:45
Show details
Prediction details: Rachele Laschi

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 26–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:15 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (5:02 / km)
Error: −4:53 / −1:17 / km
Overall prediction: 44:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:15 (3:45 / km)
Total: 44:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 33 Laura Ceddia
ITA
+22 s
+27 s
G1 / G3
 15:05
17:56
 44:46
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Ceddia

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 38–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (4:43 / km)
Error: −2:51 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 44:46
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:58 / km)
Total: 44:46
41 / 47 Felipa Herrmann
GER
+45 s
+22 s
G3 / G5
 14:17
18:26
 44:47
Show details
Prediction details: Felipa Herrmann

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 24–47
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:17 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (4:51 / km)
Error: −4:09 / −1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:47
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:17 (3:45 / km)
Total: 44:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 43 Denise Cavallini
ITA
+25 s
+22 s
G2 / G4
 14:57
18:55
 44:54
Show details
Prediction details: Denise Cavallini

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 30–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (4:59 / km)
Error: −3:58 / −1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:54
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (3:56 / km)
Total: 44:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 46 Nicole Bauer
AUT
+40 s
+44 s
G3 / G6
 14:31
17:58
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Bauer

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 35–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:31 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (4:44 / km)
Error: −3:27 / −0:55 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:31 (3:49 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 40 Matylda Wojakiewicz
POL
+33 s
+26 s
G2 / G4
 15:05
18:08
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Matylda Wojakiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 29–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (4:46 / km)
Error: −3:03 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:17 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:58 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 41 Désirée Gmür
SUI
+42 s
+35 s
G3 / G4
 14:35
18:29
 45:05
Show details
Prediction details: Désirée Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 36–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:35 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (4:52 / km)
Error: −3:54 / −1:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:35 (3:50 / km)
Total: 45:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 53 Leonie Hauser
AUT
+44 s
+25 s
G3 / G6
 15:18
19:47
 45:48
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 44–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (5:12 / km)
Error: −4:29 / −1:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (4:02 / km)
Total: 45:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 32 Alice Riebler
ITA
+74 s
+27 s
G4 / G4
correct 		14:21
17:13
 46:10
Show details
Prediction details: Alice Riebler

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 44–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 47.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 76.0 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:21 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (4:32 / km)
Error: −2:52 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 46:10
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:35 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 14:21 (3:47 / km)
Total: 46:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 50.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 55 Ema Beke
SVK
+46 s
+49 s
G3 / G6
 15:45
22:19
 46:15
Show details
Prediction details: Ema Beke

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 47–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (5:52 / km)
Error: −6:34 / −1:44 / km
Overall prediction: 46:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: 46:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 22 Paola Sacchi
ITA
+14 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:06
17:32
 46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Paola Sacchi

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 50–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (4:37 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (4:30 / km)
Total: 46:47
0 / 31 Federica Frigerio
ITA
+150 s
+30 s
G5 / G4
16:44
Show details
Prediction details: Federica Frigerio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 12:17
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 120.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 76.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (4:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:17 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (37.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 126.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 34 Livia Wespe
SUI
+43 s
+42 s
G3 / G4
17:24
Show details
Prediction details: Livia Wespe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (4:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (38.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 37 Chiara Cavalli
ITA
+0 s
+34 s
G0 / G4
17:51
Show details
Prediction details: Chiara Cavalli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 52–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 45 Klara Hofer Mattsson
SWE
+0 s
+145 s
G0 / G7
17:00
Show details
Prediction details: Klara Hofer Mattsson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 53–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (4:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 51 Giorgia Messori
ITA
+0 s
+8 s
G0 / G5
18:52
Show details
Prediction details: Giorgia Messori

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 54–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (4:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 52 Claudia Carmela Paladini
ITA
+0 s
+30 s
G0 / G6
19:19
Show details
Prediction details: Claudia Carmela Paladini

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 55–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.